I have been doing player rankings informally for years with similar concepts, and offically on this website since the spring of 2022. The model underwent changes to refine it after those first rankings in 2022, particularly with the addition of a minutes-per-game adjuster. The early version of the model had a hard cutoff of 22 minutes per game (or minimum usage), which meant that many role players failed to qualify. I placed these players in a “sleeper” category and posted where they would have ranked nationally if they had qualified.
The hit rate for these sleepers after 2022 going in the following season was high. We’ll take a look back at the type of leaps from 2022-23 in our rankings and what we could expect, and look forward to the 2024-25 sleepers who could join them.
We didn’t do this last year since all players were qualified and incorporated into the rankings with minutes adjustments. This season, however, I want to identify the players who seem to just need more minutes and could be ready to take off. These are players you are unlikely to find on any other national rankings, but they are all highly productive per possession, which suggests a much greater ceiling by the theory of the Milsap Doctrine . Typically, they just need more minutes and opportunity.
2024-25 Sleepers
For this exercise, we aren’t including players like Fousseyni Traore, who only played 18 minutes per game last year. We’ve seen him perform at a similar level in 24.8 minutes per game, so it’s clear he needs more minutes. The same goes for players like Zed Key , whose leap we already predicted and which did happen, but he regressed last season. I expect him to shine this season, however, as we know what he can do.
50. Dain Dainja
Dain Dainja is someone I received a lot of pushback on when I mentioned him as a potential breakout candidate this season. He’s played 1,098 minutes in college and has a 25.9 career PER, a 96.4 DRtg, and a +21.3 net differential while playing in the Big 12 and Big Ten. Despite this, he’s never played more than 20 minutes per game in a season and was down to 10 minutes last year. Interestingly, his numbers were better in Big Ten play than in non-conference games the year he was starting. In Big Ten play, both his minutes and PER improved.
72. Ja’Vier Francis
There isn’t much to say here except that Ja’Vier Francis has massive upside. Two seasons ago, he posted a ridiculous 143.1 offensive rating and an 81.3 defensive rating. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a larger net differential than that from a rotation player who was playing 10 or more minutes in every game. He was very strong last year in the Big 12 as well, even doubling his minutes to 20 per game.
86. Kadin Shedrick
Kadin Shedrick is a player we’ve been waiting on for years, but despite multiple coaching changes, no one has given him more than 20 minutes per game. It’s pretty mind-boggling considering some of the statistics he has for his career: a 23.4 PER, .657 True Shooting, 124.2 ORtg, and 94.2 DRtg. Maybe this is the year he finally gets the handcuffs taken off and plays 25+ minutes a game. If he does, I would expect All-Big 12 honors.
96. Sincere Parker
Sincere Parker has a pedigree as a former top JUCO player, but he didn’t play that great in his first season at Saint Louis (18 PER in 12 minutes per game). Last year, however, he was incredible: 15.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 20.7 MPG, and a 30.0 PER in 16 games. Twelve of those were in A10 play, where he posted a 36 PER. These are some of the most incredible stats I’ve ever seen for a guard, but how real is that? The shooting splits didn’t seem unsustainable, and what makes it even more remarkable is that nearly all of it came after he broke his foot and sat out for 2 months. He even had back-to-back-to-back 30-point games soon after, including two against quality teams like VCU and St. Joe’s, and in just 18 minutes against LaSalle. Without minutes adjusters, he would rate as a top 20 player.
