Our model, ADJeff ratings, are just a rating of the D1 players and their Adjust Efficiency by strength of schedule.There are other factors we consider in the overall team rankings like coaching, continuity, incoming freshmen, JUCO, team build, fit, etc. ADJeff is our primary guidepost.
Ah, the world of college basketball rankings. Every year, die-hard fans and analysts eagerly await the announcement of team positions. But have you ever wondered what goes behind those rankings?
Role of Recruiting Class in Rankings
At the heart of any top team lies its Recruiting Class. Securing a Top Five Recruiting Class isn’t just a matter of pride; it’s a promise of potential victories in the forthcoming games. These classes, often bustling with Five Star Prospects, can sometimes sway the balance of power in an entire conference.
Why the NCAA Tournament Matters
Teams with consistent appearances in the NCAA Tournament are often seen as basketball royalty. With every team striving to showcase their prowess, only the best manage to cement their positions through repeated NCAA Tournament appearances.
Major Conferences & Their Impact
Conference play, for many, is the heart and soul of the college basketball season. They’re where age-old rivalries play out and where new legends are born.
Power of the Big East
The Big East, with its rich history, has seen teams rise from obscurity to national prominence. With each season, it continues to play a monumental role in the landscape of college basketball.
Dominance of the Big Ten
Similarly, the Big Ten isn’t just another conference. Its teams are synonymous with basketball excellence. The recruiting battles in the Big Ten often make headlines, showcasing the immense talent that the conference attracts year after year.
The Underdogs: Mountain West
Yet, it’s not just the big guns that make noise. The Mountain West, for instance, has been showing that with the right combination of team spirit and strategy, any team can have its Cinderella moment.
The Lineup Essentials
With every season, the lineup shuffles bring new hope. Which team retained its stars? Who snagged that much-talked-about Baylor Transfer?
Importance of Five Star Prospects
Having even one of these Five Star Prospects can be a game-changer. They’re often touted as the future stars of the NBA, and their addition to any Starting Lineup often sends fans into a tizzy.
The Value of Four Starters
But it’s not just about the five-star athletes. Teams with Four Starters returning from the previous season often have an advantage, given the established chemistry and in-game understanding among the players.
Baylor Transfer’s Effect on Lineups
Transfer players, especially from powerhouse teams like Baylor, bring with them a wealth of experience and skill. Their addition to the team can provide depth, versatility, and the much-needed boost during crucial games.
Teams to Watch in the Season
Every season brings its set of dark horses and consistent performers. From Florida Atlantic with its young and vibrant team to the consistent gameplay of Eastern Washington and Saint Mary’s, there are teams that often defy the odds.
Conclusion & Predictions
This season promises a mix of the old guard and new challengers. With each team looking to play a bigger role in the post-season games, the stakes have never been higher. From the battle-hardened teams of the Big East and Big Ten to the enthusiastic squads of Mountain West, one thing’s for sure: fans are in for a treat.
Whether you’re a seasoned basketball aficionado or a newcomer to the college basketball scene, always remember: in this game, predictions can go for a toss, and it’s the passion on the court that eventually writes the story.
For those deeply passionate about college basketball, each season is not just a collection of games. It’s a narrative, a tale of underdogs and champions, of heartbreaks and triumphs. Here’s to another thrilling season ahead!
June 13th
Last year the entire ranking industry was wrong on the North Carolina Tar Heels, including us. The preseason number 1 for most missed the NCAA tournament on CBS Sports completely. In the opposite case most were also wrong on the Golden Eagles of Marquette and their five players. Unlike North Carolina, there were many a school across the country we were correct in our rankings. A long list of teams that over or underachieved in the final polls and rankings include Michigan State, Oral Roberts, Arizona, Kentucky, North Texas, Utah State, Iowa State, West Virginia. Those that overacheved as well like Florida Atlantic in the NCAA Tournament and regular season. What you begin with and expect are never going to be entirely correct for anyone.
A significant change has come to the roster of most teams since the transfer portal opened and the NBA Draft withdrawal date has come and gone. Kentucky had to be the biggest loser in this process until a late big addition. North Texas also lost their coach and most of their final four NIT team. The Duke Blue Devils had a nice win bringing back Kyle Filipowski. No one won as much in the portal as Bill Self adding Hunter Dickinson, the 2nd best player in the nation in our model. The class of the field and talent, but class doesn’t always win out. Kansas has to be the betting favorite preseason for the national championship.
Texas got Oral Roberts transfer point guard Max Abmas which should help them get to the NCAA tournament. It was getting a little questionable after losing most of their team and best recruit. West Virginia landed a top player in basketball, not just a transfer in Jessie Edwards. West Virginia was in our top 20 until Huggins got himself fired and players left. West Virginia has a interim head coach now that has been a full assistant for one season in his career.
I believe North Carolina had addition by subtraction to their biggest 319th ranked three point shooting with Caleb Love going to Arizona. That’s one where it probably helped both teams as Arizona needed the talent and I think Love will play better in a more structured offense. He shoot more three’s than anyone every I believe that shot under 30%. That want be allowed there so it its a good transfer in and out for each team and both are in our top 25 rankings this season.
I wouldn’t expect five star recruits to be as impactful in the covid era, where everyone is older. I’ve found at least one example of a player that is 26 years old and started college in 2016. This crop of five star recruits is less impressive than last years, but I would expect a few to shine like Isaiah Collier. He has the tools to help make and NCAA tournament march madness next season and a strong case for the 2024 NBA draft. Omaha Biliew at Iowa State is another with expectations for a big season. Iowa State lost a lot but have surprised recently. North Carolina lost top 25 recruit Wilcher, but the Layden Blocker level recruits probably make little impact.
The Big East has a lot of strong teams in the rankings this season. The best team this season should be Creighton. Defending champ UConn who just added another big transfer in recent days is another team to beat this season in a clash of big games. The best of the rest include Marquette and Xavier.
There is a lot of work and you have to play the games, but these are the teams receiving votes in the college basketball rankings and likely heading to March Madness on CBS Sports next season. Receiving votes in the Top 25 in the college basketball rankings is the first step. These are our preseason college basketball rankings Nexus Rankings.
Our prediction for the March Madness National Championship game today would be Kansas and Purdue. Any team can be upset in the tournament first round (we are looking at you Purdue), but they should be the most dominant regular season teams and in the Big Ten and Big 12 respectively. Michigan State appears to be the biggest challenger to Purdue in conference and newcomer Houston which did lose some key players like Marcus Sasser, Jarrace Walker, and Tramon Mark. First time in a while they had to rebuild a little, but they did well in the transfer portal. This is a very important season for Matt Painter after losing to Saint Peters, Fairleigh Dickinson, and Conference USA member North Texas in the last three seasons in March Madness. Purdue needs to make it out of the first round if they are a high seed and lose to a team that isn’t a March Madness Cinderella.
March Madness Final Four participants last season San Diego State and Miami will look to reload. San Diego State probably takes a step back out of the top 25 to the others receiving votes section after losing Matt Bradley, Nathan Mensah, and Keshad Johnson. Miami took big losses as well but return Norchad Omier, Nijel Pack, and added Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland to offset the losses some. They should remain one of the top teams in the ACC.
Other interesting players the the starting lineup of each team to watch this season Wade Taylor IV, for Buzz Williams, Mark Sears for Nate Oats who will need to step up, the, development of Mark Mitchell and Jeremy Roach under Jon Scheyer. Others to watch for Malik Hall, Dajuan Harris Jr, , Adams Jr, Chris Ledlum., Tyson Walker, Alex Karaban, Josiah Jordan James,Harrison Ingram, Rayj Dennis, DJ Rodman, Ryan Nembhard, Xavier Booker, Jared McCain, and teammates Justin Moore, Tyler Burton, Jordan Miller, Jeremy Fears, Kobe Johnson, Emanuel Sharp, Elmarko Jackson, Antonio Reeves, Boogie Ellis, Eric Dixon at Villanova (who miss Jay Wright). Ryan Nembhard being replaced by Steven Ashworth.
The Colorado Buffaloes are a team to watch returning all five starters, as are Michigan State, Iowa State, and Saint Mary’s. Teams likely taking step backs in the starting lineup include West Virginia, Washington State, Oral Roberts, San Diego State, Northern Colorado, and Utah State. Washington State can never seem to catch a break in the transfer portal. West Virginia with the offseason drama and new West Virginia interim coach losing to the transfer portal unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament march madness, Utah State and Oral Roberts losing their coach and all their best players to the portal, PSU and San Diego State as well losing a coach or good players in the regular season. Last season championship game San Diego State now likely in the others receiving votes Iowa State, Michigan State, Blue Devils, Penn State, Saint Mary’s, and several from the Big 12 and Big East vying to get out of the first round for March Madness with these next five starters. West Virginia, Iowa State, (Iowa State being the better) March Madness last season but on the bubble at best this year.
Shaka Smart returns Big East point guard Tyler Kolek to the starting lineup who is the best point guard in the nation. It’s a huge season for Marquette who returns multiple double figure scorer guards from last season ago should return as a National title contender, trying for the 2nd in program history. They will try to get it before their best guards enter the NBA draft. It’s an intriguing roster that will need to overcome the loss of a terrific defender in Prosper from the starting lineup to the NBA Draft. Last years sixth man should help replace him in the starting lineup .
We also look forward to a strong second season from Florida Atlantic and several new international players for teams like UCLA, with FAU making the Final Four after barely making the second round over Memphis. It’s a team that fit perfectly together. Miami returns as an ACC player even without another year Isaiah Wong is there. Vet coaches Rick Barnes John Calipari return along with Hubert Davis all looking to stop the whispers. Big Ten champ Purdue will challenge Kevin Mccullar Jr who returns to Kansas as the top two favorites both with the top big men in the game in Edey and Dickenson. With the last three years and players now gone like Jordan Hawkins, Drew Timme, Jarace Walker and players like Trey Alexander, Mason Miller, Jared McCain, Xavier Booker, Ja’kobe Walter, Baylor Scheierman, Arthur Kaluma, Arterio Morris, Justin Edwards, Nick Timberlake and Jordan Gainey from USC Upstate all playing roles this season. Jan Vide, David Joplin we will also see the end of the Pac 12 in a season of change. Get ready.
