2024 French Open: Power Rankings

Clay courts provide a unique challenge where specific players thrive. Even before Rafael Nadal’s incredible dominance at the French Open (112–3), Thomas Muster utilized clay to rise to the top of the world rankings. His 1995 season is still in the record books tied with Roger Federer for the most title in a season at 12.

However, this aspect can be somewhat questionable. Moreover, there have been instances of lower-ranked players and specialists claiming victory at the French Open. While surfaces have become more uniform since the early 2000s, with playing conditions resembling each other more closely, clay remains distinct and offers certain players a better chance of success. This distinction is crucial; otherwise, Nadal, despite his exceptional abilities, wouldn’t have achieved the remarkable record he holds, as clay perfectly aligns with his strengths. So, let’s examine the top contenders for winning the clay court slam this season.

2024 French Open Power Rankings

Djokovic

Novak Djokovic hasn’t been as sharp this season, having already suffered four losses in 15 matches. To put it in perspective, he only lost seven times in 63 matches last year. However, despite this, he’s widely regarded as the greatest of all time. As the defending champion and winner of two of the last three French Open titles, he currently holds the top spot in the world rankings. Additionally, Djokovic has defeated Nadal at Roland Garros in 2021 and 2015, contributing to two of the three losses Nadal has experienced at the French Open. He does coming in however with a recent loss to Casper Ruud on clay, as well as a loss to the 123rd ranked player in the World at Indian Wells.

Nadal

This might mark Rafael Nadal’s final appearance at the French Open. After an absence of over a year, he has recently returned to tennis. The results have been somewhat mixed thus far, although he does boast a notable victory over Alex de Minaur, who holds the 11th spot in the world rankings and defeated Djokovic earlier this season. Nadal holds a 5-3 record for the season, all matches played on clay. While his other victories may not be particularly impressive, his losses have been against respectable opponents. This upcoming tournament will undoubtedly pose a significant challenge for him. However, if anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt at the French Open, it’s Nadal. In my opinion, he remains a contender, albeit a longshot one, given his uncertain health and lack of match practice. At his peak performance for a single day, he is likely capable of defeating nearly anyone on clay, although whether this holds true against Djokovic is debatable. Hopefully, we’ll witness one more remarkable run from the king of clay.

Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz is still only 21 years old, and clay may be his strongest surface. However, this year’s Indian Wells champion was recently defeated by Andrey Rublev on clay. His best finish at the French Open so far is a semifinal.

Sinner

Jannik Sinner has already tasted victory in a major and defeated Djokovic along the way to doing it. It doesn’t seem like the French Open would fit his game that well, but he did make a quarterfinal when he was much less of a strong player than he is now. However, he was out in the second round last season to a player ranked outside of the top 100. It’s a mixed bag and believable that he could go deep or fall victim again.

Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev is another player whose game doesn’t fit clay so well. His best finish is a quarterfinal in 2021, but he’s been eliminated in the first round five out of the seven times he has played, including last season by a qualifier. He was the second seed, showing how volatile this tournament can be for some players.

Zverev

You wouldn’t necessarily think a 6’6″ player like Alexander Zverev’s game was tailored for the French Open, but he has been to three straight semifinals, a fourth round, and two quarterfinals in the last six seasons. He has shown highly consistent high-level play. The French Open has been his best tournament, with a record of 28-8 (78%).

Rublev

Andrey Rublev, “Mr. Quarterfinals,” has made the quarterfinals in all four majors, including twice at the French Open. He’s playing very well on clay right now, having just won Madrid and beaten Alcaraz on the way to the title. He’s a legitimate threat this season in my opinion.

Ruud

Casper Ruud has been to multiple major finals, including the last two French Open finals. So far this clay season, he’s beaten Djokovic and made the finals of Monte-Carlo, where he lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas. However, he returned the favor by winning the title over Tsitsipas in Barcelona.

Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas won Monte-Carlo and made the finals of Barcelona. He’s the 2021 French Open runner-up and has made a semifinal and quarterfinal as well in the last four appearances at the French Open. He’s a serious contender for his first major win.

Rune

Holger Rune has the talent, and he already has two straight quarterfinal appearances at the French Open. The showings on clay this season have been less inspiring; however, he does have a win against #9 G. Dimitrov on the dirt this season.

Hurkacz

Hubert Hurkacz is another player you wouldn’t expect much from at the French Open, only making it to the fourth round once in his career. However, he just dismantled Nadal 6-3, 6-1 and is ranked 10th in the world. That still counts for something.

Khachanov

Karen Khachanov has made a couple of quarterfinals at the French Open and is in nice form against Medvedev this season on clay.