When looking for a low seed with the potential to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, Baylor stands out as a team with the highest upside in my model. Despite the unfortunate loss of big man Josh Ojianwuna, the Bears still have a dangerous combination of talent, experience, and coaching that makes them a threat to take serious in March.
The Underrated Duo: Omeir & Edgecombe
Nationally, Baylor’s frontcourt duo of Norchad Omier and VJ Edgecombe hasn’t received the recognition they deserve. Omier is 8th in our model while Edgecombe comes in at 20th. Two players in the top 20, matched only by Auburn and Purdue.
Omier brings star Final Four experience from his time at Miami, providing a physical presence and battle-tested leadership. Edgecombe, a high-upside freshman, that will likely go top 5 in the NBA draft. He has the statistics to back it up as well. Together, they form one of the best one-two punches of any team in the tournament putting up credible stats vs the best defenses in the nation.
Experience and Championship Pedigree
In addition to Omier’s tournament experience, Baylor also has veteran guard Jeremy Roach, who has played in high-stakes March moments with Duke, starting as a sophmore on the Final Four team. Roach has been disappointing this season, but is the type of player who can rise to the occasion. If Baylor matches up against Duke, I could envision him having a hero statement revenge game.
Of course, it’s impossible to overlook the presence of head coach Scott Drew, who guided Baylor to a national championship in 2021. Having a championship-winning coach is invaluable in March, and Drew’s ability to adjust and game-plan makes Baylor even more dangerous.
A Unique Style That Can Cause Problems
One of the most intriguing aspects of this Baylor team is their ability to play small and versatile. Without Ojianwuna, out of necessity, they will likely go with an undersized lineup, which can create mismatches and force opponents into uncomfortable defensive situations. If they embrace this perimeter-oriented attack, they could catch bigger teams off guard and make them adapt to their style.
Obviously if they can get by Mississippi State, Duke will be heavily favored. With a potentially limited Cooper Flagg and no Brown however, I do think this would be a bad match up for their freshman bigs like Khaman Maluach. Omier is a great college player with a lot of experience. He could pose a match up problem and force Duke to downsize and put Flagg or James on him.
Path to a Deep Run
Baylor’s path won’t be easy, but the pieces are there for a Cinderella-type run and they do pose match up issues in my opinion. With Omier anchoring the paint and Edgecombe emerging as a go-to option with lots of upside, Baylor has the tools to be the most dangerous lower seed in this field.
Come tournament time, it’s all about matchups, momentum, and making plays in crunch time. It is true that Baylor hasn’t beat anyone good since West Virginia a month ago. Since the start of March however they are 3-2 with two close losses to Houston by 4, and Texas Tech by 2.
Baylor has the roster, the coaching, and the intangibles to be a serious problem. If you’re looking for a team that could bust brackets and make a Final Four push, keep an eye on the Bears.
