For years, I’ve been refining a player ranking model that emphasizes per-possession production and adjusts for minutes played. After debuting this system officially in 2022, I introduced a sleeper category for players who didn’t meet a hard cutoff of 22 minutes per game but displayed exceptional efficiency. While last year all players were integrated with minutes-adjusted rankings, this year we’re revisiting the top 20 sleepers that were highlighted in our August 2024 top 20 sleepers article to spotlight highly productive players poised to break out with more playing time. These were names you didn’t find in traditional national rankings, but their per-possession stats suggest a much higher ceiling under the Milsap Doctrine, which highlights players whose production scales with opportunity.
Here’s a look at our 2024-25 sleepers and the results so far.
Bittle is one of our biggest wins so far. He’s having an outstanding season worthy of All-American consideration, leading Oregon into the top ten. He was coming off a season where he only played 5 games, averaging 17 minutes per game, and 18 minutes per game the season prior, averaging 7 PPG and 5 RPG. However, he popped per possession in the model, and even with the new minutes adjustments, he was ranked 181st in the preseason in our rankings. That was higher than anyone else ranked him certainly. Now, he’s averaging 14.4 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 1.9 APG, and 2.0 BPG.
Zuby Ejiofor
Ejiofor was only a 11-minute-a-game, 4.3 PPG player last year. This year, he’s averaging 13.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 0.9 APG for a very good St. John’s team.
Chad Baker-Mazara
Baker-Mazara was our #1 ranked JUCO two seasons ago, but only played 22 minutes per game last year. While he’s still only playing 23 minutes this year, that’s likely more a result of blowouts. He’s been awesome against one of the strongest SOS’s. He’s averaging 13.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, and 2.3 APG.
Richie Saunders/Fousseyni Traore
Saunders was only a 20-minute-a-game player last year. The playing time has ticked up some, and he’s now at 27 minutes per game, with the production remaining the same: 13.0 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 1.4 APG. Teammate Fousseyni Traore hasn’t gotten the same runway, averaging 19.8 minutes per game for a new coach, but he has one of the top PERs in the nation. Still, he’s averaging 12.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 1.9 APG, as he’s one of the best per-possession players in the nation.
Zed Key
Key’s rebound numbers are somewhat disappointing and below his historical averages, but he’s been a 23-minute-per-game starter on a team that is nationally ranked. His offense hasn’t disappointed, though. He’s averaging 12.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 0.6 APG on nearly 70% True Shooting.
Dain Dainja
Dainja has not been as efficient as he has historically, yet some of that is due to Memphis playing one of the hardest SOSs to date. He’s carved out a nice 24-minute-per-game role on a Memphis team that was ranked 16th before the upset. He’s averaging 10.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 1.8 APG.
Zvonimir Ivisic
Ivisic showed some signs last year but was only an 11-minute-per-game player, appearing in 15 games. This year, he’s playing 22 minutes and has been highly productive, averaging 12.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 0.8 APG.
Kadin Shedrick
Shedrick had some of the best net differentials in the nation while at UVA. We were calling for him to play more, and now he’s finally playing 27 minutes per game after only playing 17 minutes per game the last two seasons. The points and rebounds per game don’t jump off the page, but he’s very efficient and blocking 2 shots per game as well. He’s averaging 9.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 2.0 BPG, with strong PER and TS%.
Tobe Awaka
Awaka is averaging over 8 points and 8 rebounds a game in 18 minutes. The production is very much there per possession.
Mid-Major
Oscar Cluff of South Dakota State has been a standout with 18.4 PPG, 11.7 RPG, and 2.6 APG, all while shooting 72.8% from the field. His per-possession production has been phenomenal, with a staggering PER of 37.9. He reminds me of Daniel Batcho as a starter moving down to a lower level and dominating.
Sincere Parker from McNeese State is another name to watch. Averaging 15.6 PPG and 2.6 RPG, Parker has also posted an impressive PER of 25.2, solidifying his place as a sleeper with high potential for growth if given more playing time. He had 19 points against Alabama, but his minutes still averaging only 22 minutes per game is disappointing.
JaKobe Coles at Grand Canyon has been similarly efficient, averaging 15.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 2.3 APG, shooting 62.4% from the field.
Disappointments
The majority of the remaining players on the list are still performing respectably per possession. All but Jalen Washington and Sean Stewart have PERs above 17. These two, however, are the biggest disappointments. While they haven’t played bigger roles, their production has not met expectations.
