College basketball is full of teams flying under the radar—programs that rarely make headlines but quietly put together elite-level stats, efficient lineups, and underrated talent. While most rankings focus on the usual suspects, there’s a deep tier of teams currently pegged in the 200–300+ range by major outlets that could easily outperform expectations. Some of these programs are poised to climb 100 spots in the national pecking order, and a few even have the pieces to contend for conference crowns in leagues where they’re pegged as 20th or 25th. This article highlights the deepest sleepers in college basketball—teams that could shock the world if given the chance.
IU Indy might be the deepest true sleeper in the country — a team buried in the 350s by most outlets but quietly retooling around a proven winner. New head coach Ben Howlett, hired late in May, arrives from Division II powerhouse West Liberty, where he went 217–37 (.854) — one of the best winning percentages in NCAA history. He brings with him a chunk of that program’s core and a style that has ranked among the nation’s fastest and most efficient offenses for years.
Howlett’s challenge will be deciding whether to unleash the same high-octane attack that regularly chased 100 points a night at West Liberty or slow things down in the Horizon League. Either way, the foundation is in place: several of his trusted players followed him to IU Indy, giving the Jaguars instant chemistry and familiarity with his system.
Returning/Incoming Core:
Kyler D’Augustino (West Liberty, DII) – 6-1 – 17.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.1 APG, 28.1% 3PT (4th-best D2 transfer in our rankings)
That’s an experienced, versatile rotation loaded with shooting and playmaking size. Woodward, in particular, stands out as a 6-7 forward who can facilitate offense and stretch the floor — a rare skillset at this level.
With Howlett’s track record and a system built around spacing and pace, IU Indy looks far more like a mid-200s roster than one sitting in the 360 range. If the offense translates to Division I, this team could shock the Horizon League and make an early push toward the middle of the pack — or even flirt with contention in year one.
Another Division II powerhouse coach makes the jump to Division I — and this one could make an immediate impact. Andy Bronkema, who went 278–105 (.726) and won the 2018 Division II national title at Ferris State, takes over at Central Michigan. His Ferris teams have been consistently strong — No. 24 nationally last year and in the Elite Eight just two seasons ago — and he brings both his winning pedigree and several of his former players to Mount Pleasant.
This roster is built in his image: physical, experienced, and filled with length and shooters. Bronkema’s first Central Michigan team looks unusually well-balanced for one projected in the 320s — with legitimate size across the frontcourt and multiple players who can stretch the floor.
Key Additions:
Rodney Johnson Jr. (Tennessee Tech) – 6-5, 220 lbs – 13.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 51.0% FG, 40.2% 3PT – A proven Division I scorer who should be the Chippewas’ offensive centerpiece.
Nathan Claerbaut (Ferris State) – 7-0, 230 lbs – 9.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 33.3% 3PT – A mobile seven-footer with shooting touch, rare in the MAC.
Jaxson Whitaker (Ferris State) – 6-4, 215 lbs – 16.7 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 42.6% 3PT – Elite shooter and rebounder from the wing, likely to start immediately.
Nick Mullen (IU–South Bend, NAIA DII) – 6-10, 230 lbs – 13.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.3 BPG, 43.6% 3PT – A stretch big with rim protection; his 1.3 made threes per game are legit.
Will Ashford (Purdue–Northwest, DII) – 6-5 – 9.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 55.4% 3PT – Another sniper who adds shooting depth.
Kareem Aburashed (Wayne State, DII) – 6-10, 235 lbs – 4.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 32.3% 3PT – Adds size and versatility to the frontcourt.
Tamario Adley (Wayne State, DII) – 6-1 – 13.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 3.2 APG – Combo guard who rebounds and attacks the rim.
Keenan Garner (IU Indy) – 6-6, 220 lbs – 5.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG – Glue guy who adds experience and physical defense.
Phat Phat Brooks (Michigan) – 6-2 – Former Big Ten guard who adds athleticism to the backcourt.
Bronkema’s track record and the roster’s mix of high-efficiency shooting and size (Claerbaut at 7-0, Mullen at 6-10, Aburashed at 6-10, Nation at 6-7) make Central Michigan one of the more intriguing rebuilds in the MAC. With returning shooters like Whitaker and Johnson flanking that front line, the Chippewas could be far more competitive than their current projections suggest.
This looks less like a bottom-50 roster and more like a mid-table MAC team capable of pushing the top half by February. Don’t be shocked if Central Michigan ends up more than 100 spots higher than most preseason models.
Denver becomes the third sleeper on this list led by a Division II coach making the jump to Division I, and the formula looks strikingly similar: proven success, immediate buy-in, and top-end D2 transfers who can play right away. Tim Bergstraser, fresh off a 75–22 (.773) record and a Sweet 16 run at Minnesota State–Moorhead, now takes over a Pioneers program with real upward potential. His teams ranked fifth nationally in Division II last season, and he brings with him several of his best players — including one of the highest-rated D2 transfers in the country.
Key Additions:
Carson Johnson (Minnesota State–Moorhead, DII) – 6-0 – 19.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 41.8% 3PT – The No. 2 D2 transfer in the nation per our rankings and a dynamic shot-maker who can instantly reshape Denver’s offense.
Logan Kinsey (Minnesota State–Moorhead, DII) – 6-6, 210 lbs – 14.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 37.7% 3PT – Versatile scorer who adds length and rebounding on the wing.
Shaun Wysocki (Minnesota State–Moorhead, DII) – 6-7 – 7.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG – Another trusted Bergstraser player who understands the system.
Zane Nelson (Missouri Western, DII) – 6-4 – 15.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.5 APG – Crafty combo guard who brings creation and toughness.
Ian Motta (Bucknell, DI) – 6-6 – 8.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3.2 APG, 42.9% 3PT – Proven Patriot League shooter who gives the lineup legitimate spacing.
Julius Rollins (Western Illinois, DI) – 6-7 – 9.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG – Productive Summit veteran who adds athleticism to the rotation.
Kaden Holdbrook (Macalester, DIII) – 6-2 – 15.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 34.4% 3PT – Underrated scorer moving up two levels.
Gabe Oldham (Pima College, JUCO) – 6-8, 225 lbs – 12.9 PPG, 9.8 RPG – Rebounding specialist with physicality and toughness.
Josh Lee (Denver) – 6-3 – 6.6 PPG, 40.5% 3PT – Returning shooter who fits perfectly in Bergstraser’s pace-and-space system.
With a backcourt headlined by Carson Johnson and Zane Nelson, plus shooters like Motta and Kinsey on the wings, Denver suddenly has one of the more skilled lineups in the Summit League. Add in Bergstraser’s winning pedigree and familiarity with several of his core players, and this is a team that could rise 100+ spots in national rankings if the offense translates quickly.
Denver finished 13–18 last year, but the new personnel and coaching direction give them a ceiling that looks far closer to a top-half Summit team than a bottom-tier rebuild. If Johnson adapts smoothly, the Pioneers could be a genuine dark-horse contender in a league that rewards offensive firepower.
Southern Miss isn’t a rebuild story — it’s a redemption one. Head coach Jay Ladner has already shown he can put together a top-100 team, reaching No. 99 nationally in 2023, but after slipping to 293 last year (and as low as the 340s earlier in his tenure), he badly needs a turnaround season. This year’s roster gives him that chance, built almost entirely on a wave of JUCO talent — with several nationally ranked transfers, including the No. 2 and No. 13 JUCO players in our database.
This is a classic “bites at the apple” roster — enough athletic, productive newcomers that a few are bound to pop. If even two or three of these high-upside players translate at the Division I level, Southern Miss could look completely different by midseason.
Key Additions:
Isaac Tavares (South Plains, JUCO) – 16.7 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.6 APG, 30.5% 3PT – #2 JUCO in our rankings; versatile 6-6 wing who rebounds and attacks off the bounce.
I.J. Ezuma (South Plains, JUCO) – 19.1 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 5.5 APG, 50.0% 3PT – #13 JUCO in our rankings; 6-8, 239 lbs forward with playmaking and shooting ability.
Felipe Patino (Eastern Florida State, JUCO) – 9.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 47.6% 3PT – Reliable shooter and energy guy, 6-4.
Izzy Hart (Central Oklahoma, JUCO) – 16.9 PPG, 3.9 APG, 37.9% 3PT – Quick guard who can push pace and stretch defenses, 6-3.
Dylan Brumfield (William Carey, NAIA) – 16.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.5 APG – Local scorer with size and slashing ability, 6-5.
Djahi Binet (Alcorn State) – 9.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG – Productive SWAC transfer with rebounding presence, 6-7, 215 lbs.
Curt Lewis (ETSU/Eastern Kentucky) – Former JUCO national champion who averaged 11.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.7 APG in his best Division I season; could be a stabilizing veteran, 6-5, 215 lbs.
Robert Cowherd (Ole Miss) – Former SEC guard still with untapped potential, 6-5, 213 lbs.
Chandler Watts (Eastern Florida State, JUCO) – 6-6 wing depth and energy defender, 6-6.
There’s no shortage of talent — just uncertainty about who will emerge as the go-to option. Tavares and Ezuma headline the newcomers, but Curt Lewis could quietly be the key swing piece if he regains his form from Eastern Kentucky.
If even a few of these JUCO standouts hit, Ladner could again have a top-three team in the Sun Belt. Given the volume of incoming production and athletic upside, Southern Miss looks like a clear buy-low candidate capable of leaping 100+ spots nationally and getting back into the conference mix.
Pacific (Ranked 225 – Outlet 1 | 193 – Outlet 2)
Dave Smart’s debut season at Pacific didn’t quite live up to the hype many (including me) expected, but year two feels like a reset button. I’ve written plenty about Smart’s Carleton dynasty — how he turned rosters of unheralded players into teams capable of beating NCAA and even Final Four-caliber programs in exhibitions. That same formula is still in play here, and this roster gives him more pieces that fit his system.
Elias Ralph returns as one of the better mid-major forwards in the country and should take another step if his outside shot (27.3% last year) climbs closer to the percentages he’s shown in Canada. Pacific also adds proven scoring and experience across multiple positions, plus real size and efficiency inside with the addition of Isaac Jack and K.C. Ibekwe. This team looks deeper, more balanced, and better built for Smart’s defensive structure.
If the chemistry clicks, Pacific could jump 100+ spots from most preseason projections and emerge as a legitimate dark horse in the middle of the WCC.
Key Returner:
Elias Ralph (Pacific) – 14.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.8 APG, 27.3% 3PT – One of the best mid-major returners (282nd in our model nationally overall); versatile forward who can rebound, defend, and score inside. Expect outside shooting to improve after strong showings with Team Canada 6-7, 212 lbs.
Key Additions:
T.J. Wainwright (Long Beach State) – 13.4 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.7 APG, 40.7% 3PT – Top-400 player in our model; adds needed perimeter scoring and spacing, 6-3.
A.J. Marmolejos (Lamar) – 14.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.1 APG, 38.5% 3PT – Former JUCO star who brings scoring punch and shot creation they lacked last year, 6-2.
Isaac Jack (Dayton) – 8.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.0 APG, 81.6% FG – Highly efficient interior finisher who can stabilize their frontcourt, 6-11, 250 lbs.
Augustas Brazdeikis (Carleton) – 15.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG – Productive forward from Smart’s old program; knows his system inside-out, 6-8, 220 lbs.
This roster finally gives Smart the blend of shooters, size, and toughness he thrives with. If the ball movement and defense return to his Carleton-level standards, Pacific could be one of the biggest surprise risers in the country.
Sacramento State enters the season with a lot of intrigue. Mike Bibby’s hire raised eyebrows, but the roster he and staff have assembled — particularly the acquisition of Bear Cherry — gives this team legitimate talent in a conference that rewards impact players. There’s still some uncertainty around Bibby’s in-game coaching ability, but the combination of proven scoring, size, and athleticism could allow this squad to outperform expectations if he at least manages the basics effectively.
Key Additions / Transfers:
Jeremiah Cherry (UNLV) – 9.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.5 APG – #248 nationally; versatile center with rebounding, shot-blocking(3.9 blocks per 100 possessions), and scoring upside, 6-11, 250 lbs.
Brandon Gardner (Arizona State) – Former top-100 recruit with size and athletic upside, limited D1 experience but high ceiling, 6-8, 215 lbs.
Prophet Johnson (Fairfield) – 13.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2.4 APG, 25.9% 3PT – Versatile wing who can handle multiple roles on offense and contribute on the boards, 6-3.
Analysis: Sac State is top-heavy with talent, particularly at center and wing. Cherry is a high-level mid-major addition who can anchor the team in the paint, while Jones, Gardner, and Johnson bring scoring and versatility. Bibby’s coaching ability is the main question mark, but if he can manage rotations and offensive flow like he did in high school and leverage his NBA experience, this roster could easily exceed expectations in the Big Sky. Depth is a concern, but the top-end talent gives the Hornets a chance to compete immediately.
Edit Apparently Bynum Decommited. Georgia Southern Would make my list instead if I were doing it today.
Southern Indiana was ranked 335 last year, entering its third season in Division I under Stan Gouard. While the program is still finding its footing at this level, a few key offseason additions make this a team to watch. The biggest upgrades are in the backcourt, where transfers and JUCO talent should provide more scoring and spacing than last year’s roster.
Trey Thomas (Bethune-Cookman / Southern Indiana) – 16.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 32.8% 3PT – Experienced guard who can create his own shot and push tempo, 6-2.
With these additions, Southern Indiana improves its perimeter and backcourt play while maintaining size inside. The team may not be a top-tier sleeper, but the backcourt upgrades give Gouard a chance to move the program upward, and this roster could easily outperform the mid-300s preseason ranking if a couple of players hit their stride.
Coastal Carolina sits near the bottom of most preseason rankings, but a few high-upside pieces give this team a chance to outperform expectations. The roster isn’t particularly deep, but it features some proven scorers and a big-bodied forward to anchor the interior. Depth may be a concern, especially in the post, but the core players could carry the team in a tough Sun Belt conference.
Key Returner:
Rasheed Jones (Coastal Carolina) – 11.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.1 APG, 34.0% 3PT – Reliable 6-6 wing; can score, rebound, and make an impact from the perimeter.
Key Additions / Transfers:
AJ Dancler (Le Moyne) – 15.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.4 APG, 40.4% 3PT – Experienced wing with size, shooting, and playmaking ability; adds stability at a difficult-to-fill position, 6-2.
Joshua Beadle (Boston College) – 6.3 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, 48.6% FG – Guard with efficiency and proven D1 experience; adds scoring and floor management, 6-3.
DaJohn Craig (Oregon State) – 1.9 PPG, 0.7 RPG, 0.5 APG, 37.5% 3PT – Depth piece who can contribute from the perimeter, 6-1.
Derrick Green (Brunswick C.C., JUCO) – 11.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG – Big man with size and rebounding presence; gives the team a solid interior option, 6-9, 290 lbs.
While depth remains a concern, this roster has enough proven scorers and a big man in Green to make a difference. Dancer and Beadle bring reliable experience, and Jones provides consistency. If the team’s post play can hold up and the wings continue producing, Coastal Carolina could finish well above their preseason rank.
