Flagg Tops Coaches Poll: Debunking the Consensus

CBS’s recent poll of 100+ coaches has named Cooper Flagg as the preseason number one player for the 2024-25 college basketball season, with a commanding 36% of the vote. Mark Sears followed with 22%, while Hunter Dickinson and RJ Davis secured 16% and 15% of the votes, respectively. Not only should Flagg likely not be ranked number one at this point, but I’m not sure I would have him as the top projected freshman, and perhaps not even the best freshman on his own Duke team.

The Super Senior, NIL, Free Transfer Era

Mark Few once noted, “Everybody’s recruiting top-50 guys. Well, they’re still 18, and they’re going against 23-year-olds.”

Predicting how high school players will perform in their first year of college is notoriously difficult, and the Super Senior Era has only exacerbated this challenge. With the influx of 23-year-olds in their final season of eligibility and the consolidation of mid-major talent into power conferences—thanks to new transfer rules and NIL opportunities—the landscape of college basketball has shifted dramatically. The number of transfers has soared, leading to older rosters and more experienced players staying in school longer, which has made it harder for freshmen to shine.

Cooper Flagg will be 17 years old until late December and a slim 205lb post tweener who will play many possessions around the basket. According to KenPom, only five of the top 100 players in offensive rating were true freshmen, compared to 14 in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons. Last season, only two freshmen made the top 100. Playing time for freshmen has remained relatively stable since 2020, but in 2019, nine freshmen ranked in KenPom’s top 100 players for percentage of minutes played—this season, only two have achieved that demonstrating how much has changed.

Flagg’s Stat’s

2023-24

2022-23

For perspective, this is the average of the last 7 POY’s. 37 PER, .65% TS, 22ppg, 11rpg, 1.7apg. Flagg had a .62% TS in high school for perspective and averaged 16ppg, 7.5rpg 3.8apg in high school.

Cooper Flagg played on a highly successful high school team alongside four other five-star freshmen. Despite this, his individual stats were uninspiring, considering the immense hype around him. Even though he was projected as the top player in college basketball, he failed to out shine his own teammates in high school.

I’ve had people counter by citing Cooper Flagg’s Nike EYBL stats, but those were against 15 and 16-year-olds in U16 competitions. Not 24 years old’s like Hunter Dickinson and jacked 22 year old players like 6-7, 235lb KJ Adams that Duke will face this year. Others highlight his performance with the select team during a summer scrimmage which I watched where NBA players were playing at half speed to avoid injury—Flagg was hustling as if it were a Game 7. His impressive moments were hitting two three-pointers, when he was a 38% shooting low-volume 1 make a game shooter from a shorter thee point high school line. Additionally, his 3-for-9 shooting at the McDonald’s All-American game, where there was little defensive and a crowd was present, is frequently overlooked if we are comparing scrimmages.

To put this in perspective, Johni Broome did not make the top four in the CBS coaches voting. I think he or Sears are on a tier to themselves. The argument that Flagg played on a loaded team is valid, but imagine 21-year-old Broome last year averaging 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.9 blocks, with a .620% true shooting percentage, on that same high school team. I can’t when Broome averaged 16.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 2.2 blocks per game in just 24.8 minutes, with a .594% true shooting with a 32.5 PER while leading the 4th-ranked KenPom team in the nation playing in the SEC. Numbers that improved to a 34 PER in more minutes in SEC play. If Broome were on Flagg’s high school team, he would likely dominate 17-year-old high schoolers. Not just blend in as a 16 point and 7 rebound dude beside another 16 and 7 guy in high school. Billed as the best high school prospect by some since LeBron, do you think high school LeBron, or Anthony Davis, or Zion would averaged 16 and 7 on that same team? I don’t.

Critical thinking would tell you it’s rare that players exceed their statistical baseline while leveling up from high school to college. Flagg will have even better more experienced and better teammates at Duke than he did in high school and even if he averaged the same stat line that’s not the best value player in college. He would need to exceed 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.7 blocks, with a .620% true shooting percentage that he did in high school which I see as highly unlikely. Our best case estimations in our model of 23 PER, 96 Drtg vs the typical Duke SOS etc would put him more in the 30-50 range nationally in actual on court value in ADJeff. If anything I think he’s more likely to be worse than that than number one. I just can’t see a 32 PER, 89 Drtg like Broome has already proven he can hit in a tougher conference by the objective numbers you aren’t really the best player.

Previous Montverde Players

While there is some evidence that you don’t have to dominate at Montverde to make an impact in year one, as Cade Cunningham demonstrated, it’s worth noting that Cunningham’s season occurred in the pre-NIL era, during the COVID season, with no fans and frequent disruptions due to players missing games. It was a strange year, and talent has become more consolidated since.

The majority of Montverde players in the Super Senior/free transfer/NIL era since 2021 have underperformed as freshmen. Including previous Duke players like #1 Dariq Whitehead. Even Scottie Barnes averaged only 10.3 Pts, 4.0 Reb, 4.1 Ast.

Ben Simmons, however, averaged 28.0 points, 11.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 2.6 steals per game while shooting 70.7% from the field at Montverde. That’s the kind of stat line I would expect relative to the hype and to have the best chance to translate immediately. Simmons was also older, stronger, with elite size for his position, and played with the ball in his hands, much like Cunningham.

Defense

I think defense is the area where Flagg is most likely to excel, but Montverde’s defense did give up points. If you take out the win against 3 win Sunrise Christian, where they allowed 39 points, and other similar teams, you’re left with 28 games against decent to top high school competition. In those games, they gave up an average of 58.5 points per game in 32 minutes. Adjusted to 40 minutes, that would be 73.1 points per game. Granted, we don’t have the pace data, but this gives some idea of their defensive performance. For perspective, that would rank them 196th in points allowed in college basketball. Even if you include all the “Sunrise” type schools and the full schedule, they’d still only rank 74th. It’s worth noting that in 2023, Montverde was still playing some games without a shot clock.

Regardless, Montverde wasn’t completely stopping teams on defense with Flagg at the head of the snake. For those who point to his team being a “high school All-Star team” as an explanation for his lack of offensive stats, the same argument should contribute to an elite defense. That just wasn’t really the case on a per-minute basis.

Ace and Teammate Maluach Are Freshman That Might Be Better

As I’ve mentioned, I wouldn’t project any freshman in the top 25 players, let alone as the best player overall. However, if I were to bet on one freshman, it would be Ace Bailey or perhaps even Flagg’s teammate at Duke Khaman Maluach. Bailey averaged 32.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.4 blocks per game against a schedule that included nine nationally ranked opponents for a team that finished 13th nationally. We do not have final percentages but as of January 10th, it was reported that he was shooting 42.9% from three and 89.7% from the free-throw line, even after facing top tournaments and a challenging non conference national schedule so we can assume those shooting percentages remained elite after doing that vs the toughest part of the SOS. If nothing else we know he was going to the line often and making 90%. That’s what elite stats look like.

Duke teammate Khaman Maluach, also presents a strong case. Unlike Flagg, Maluach has the size at 250 pounds to compete effectively in the post. He has already faced and excelled against grown men, averaging 19.1 points, 14.2 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game with a 23 PER at the NBA Africa Academy over 11 games, and another 10 games the year prior. The competition included several experienced players, such as former Baylor All-American player Jo Acuil at 30-years-old in his prime and 37-year-old  Hasheem Thabeet, adding credibility to Maluach’s impressive performance. Most of the bigs were former college players in their prime or guys that had played in NBA summer leagues. I do wonder about the minutes however after what Jon Scheyer did to Derek Lively in the rotation.

Conclusion

The national media and coaches are projecting Cooper Flagg to be better than proven college players like Johni Broome, Hunter Dickinson, and Ryan Kalkbrenner within just three months that are 22 to 24 years-old. While I’m not dismissing Flagg’s potential and NBA career as he matures and gains weight, I find it hard to believe at 17 and 200lbs putting up those high school stats a few months ago that he’ll surpass established college players like that in November. His high school stats, which were unimpressive given the hype, suggest that making such a leap in just 90 days is overly optimistic.

These are the same coaches who often forget that highly recruited Duke freshmen can underperform. For example, Dariq Whitehead and Derrick Lively, who were ranked 1st and 2nd in their class averaged under 8.5ppg. While high school recruits come with upside and the unknown, they also carry disappointment potential—evidenced by the 2,000 transfers each year now mostly due to missed coaching and recruiting evaluations. We have a market correction each spring. Moreover, these are the same coaches and media outlets who voted another Duke player Tyrese Proctor as an All-American despite coming off his 12.8 PER, .504% True shooting and the worst net differential among Duke’s starters. We called that out at the time. I guess we have to do it again since no one else will.