Before the season, there was skepticism about the extent to which freshmen would contribute to success in the era of super seniors. It was anticipated that a few players would play pivotal roles, akin to Brandon Miller in the previous year. However, even Miller, who entered as a 20-year-old, exhibited distinctions from the typical freshman profile. The unpredictability from year to year is evident, as the top two players from last year’s class assumed roles as supporting players on a team that barely cracked the top 20.
Indeed, Kentucky has surpassed our initial expectations, although a substantial portion of their success appears to hinge on Reed Shepard’s shooting, which we perceive as unsustainable. Shepard wasn’t the anticipated freshman to carry the team, and intriguingly, the two highest-ranked freshmen have not secured the top two positions in terms of freshmen performance. Notably, the two freshmen who have excelled statistically the most are not even in starting roles.
By and large, this freshman class has proven to be even more disappointing than our earlier predictions for high-impact freshmen. As we enter the phase of the season where most of the easy non-conference games conclude and conference play commences, it becomes evident that, for many freshmen, a reduction in both statistics and playing time is imminent. While certain players may continue to improve, the heightened competition in conference play typically results in a significant decrease in both statistics and playing time for most freshmen in Power 6 teams.
Consensus Top 100
Here is a compilation of the consensus top 100 players, with the leading 15 scorers highlighted at this juncture in the season. Notably, only 14 freshmen currently rank within the top 100, averaging double-digit points per game. This trend is particularly noteworthy given that we are still in the relatively less challenging phase of the schedule.
Several of these freshmen are likely to experience a decline in both raw counting stats and efficiency as they face tougher competition. A case in point is Reed Sheppard, whose impressive 58% shooting from three-point range is expected to regress over the course of the season. This is a trend that has already begun to manifest in recent games.
It’s also noteworthy to consider the impact freshmen from teams not initially expected to excel. Notably, players from programs like New Mexico and other Power 6 teams outside the top 100 are making a significant impact, contributing to their team’s success.
There are approximately 17 players at the power conference or top 100 recruit level currently averaging double-digit points. It’s important to note that efficiency levels vary among these players, with some exhibiting suboptimal performance. Anticipated declines in both raw stats and efficiency are expected for most, especially as the strength of schedules intensifies during conference play.
Within this limited pool of freshmen, success is evidently hit or miss. This unpredictability reinforces our skepticism in projecting freshmen to achieve significant success, particularly in the era of super senior transfers dominating the landscape. The days of confidently predicting the top two players to be dominant freshmen, as seen with Collier and Edwards this year, are seemingly fading. Looking ahead, players like Cooper Flagg may alter this landscape, but predicting the source of impactful freshmen remains challenging, with notable successes emerging from outside the top 25 recruits.
