Is Cooper Flagg Living Up to the Hype? Post Auburn (Update)

If you’re a regular reader of this website, you know I’m lower on Flagg than most, who project him as the top player in college basketball this season (by a landslide vote). However I’m more than willing to follow the data wherever it leads and we will be tracking it here periodically.

Post Auburn 12-5

Cooper Flagg and Auburn’s Johni Broome went head-to-head in what turned out to be a gritty, hard-fought game. While Flagg’s team ultimately secured the victory, the narrative isn’t as straightforward as a dominant performance from the star forward. Neither Flagg nor Broome played efficiently—but Broome did have an off nights by his standards. Flagg had a slight edge in steals, but their overall statline was comparable. Considering how each has played overall on the season this is a clear win for Flagg to play him to a draw statistically. Flagg’s team edged out a narrow home-court win thanks to an unexpected spark: a bench player who rarely sees the court went a scorching 6-of-8 from three, shifting the momentum in the game.

Looking at the broader picture, Flagg’s recent trend is concerning. His true shooting percentage continues to decline, to a low .512%—this marks the fifth consecutive game where efficiency has been an issue. The offensive rating is also very poor at 108. Statistically, Broome’s season remains superior, especially considering strength of schedule (SOS): Auburn has faced the 3rd-toughest schedule, while Flagg’s competition ranks 34th. Advanced metrics highlight this disparity even further. Using Torvik’s Player Rating Per Game (PRPG) and Box Plus/Minus (BPM), Broome stands at 2nd and 1st, respectively, compared to Flagg’s 184th in PRPG and 82nd in BPM. Flagg’s shooting doesn’t even rank high compared to the top 100 age freshmen averaging 11ppg+.

For context, Auburn lost to Appalachian State on the road last season and still finished 4th in KenPom. One game doesn’t define a season. Flagg’s win over Auburn is notable, but with nearly 30 games left, it’s a small part of a much larger narrative, but it is a win for him on this night. This isn’t a dismissal of Flagg’s potential—just a reminder that one home win doesn’t erase the growing efficiency concerns or elevate him above Broome’s season-long consistency. As someone who’s been critical of Flagg this season, I have to give credit where it’s due—however, consistency and making more shots will be key in determining how his season is ultimately judged.

Post Kansas 11-27

After six games and 191 minutes, Cooper Flagg’s performance is beginning to settle into a realistic baseline. At the 200-minute mark, player trends become clearer, reducing noise—provided the schedule isn’t padded with weak opponents. The defensive SOS has improved from 291st to 146th, and now to 59th in the last 3 game. As the competition has strengthened, Flagg’s PER has dipped 5 plus points, providing likely a clearer picture of what a more comparable SOS moving forward into conference play looks like.

We’ve always considered Johni Broome the clear No. 1 player, using him as a benchmark for Flagg comparisons and a valuable point of reference since Flagg got 10 times more votes for #1 player by the coaches….

Flagg’s Numbers vs. TRN Preseason Expectations

Heading into the season, our preseason projections for Flagg were

Preseason Estimates

• PER: 23
• True Shooting % (TS%): 57%
• Defensive Rating (DRtg): 96.0
• Strength of Schedule (SOS): Around 50th (consistent with Duke’s past two seasons)

We estimated that would put him around 30th to 50th nationally. That is essentially the range he is in. What I didn’t expect was THIS high of a usage role driving it as basically the volume chucker. For reference here are the last 6 Wooden winners, and the best freshman since Durrant won the NPOY (since 2007).

Flagg’s Role

Duke’s approach with Flagg as their primary offensive weapon is questionable. He’s taking on a high-usage role, sometimes shooting 20+ times per game while also being tasked with primary ball-handling duties. This strategy hasn’t played to his strengths and is exposing his inefficiencies, especially in late-game situations where he struggles with self-creation and facilitation. This is a disservice to his skill set currently and far from what I envisioned. I thought Flagg would be off-ball and a secondary option more, but be more efficient. I think that would be a better role for him, but it is hard to be considered the best player in the nation if you are in that role as well. He has the role, but he’s not played it at an elite level. It’s a lot to ask of a 17 year old which was always the problem for me as well as having to play in the post on defense.

Squashed Leadership: Roachless

The absence of a true point guard like Jeremy Roach has further exacerbated the issue. Reports suggest Roach was open to returning, and if Duke decided to move on without him, it’s proving to be a costly mistake. Flagg isn’t a natural self-creator, and the lack of a floor general is forcing him into a role that likely diminishes his efficiency.

Adjusting to Defensive Pressure

Kansas provided a clear blueprint for defending Flagg by frequently double-teaming him. This defensive strategy forced Flagg into tougher, looks and exposed his limitations as a primary creator under pressure. Moving forward, it’s likely that other teams will adopt similar tactics, especially given Flagg’s struggles when forced into high-pressure, self-creation scenarios especially in tight games.

Post Kentucky 11-13 Update

One projection that seems to be going well after tonight is having Duke ranked worse than most in the preseason and Kentucky better, as well as Andrew Carr who we had as Kentucky’s best player and 64th best nationally.

Keeping in mind I will not make massive shits in my predictions yet on such a small sample, but Flagg’s performance in his first three games has been promising in certain respects. He’s rebounded much more than he did in the three exhibition games, where it was a putrid 4.1 rebounds per 30 minutes over a large 65 minutes sample. Part of that is because he’s playing more center in the regular season and there have been a lot of shots missed by the level of teams they played. Even Kentucky only shot 40% from the floor.

Flagg’s rebound percentage is 17.8% which needs to be considered as well as the SOS. For perspective that would have been 125th last year and is currently 225th. It’s a better start rebounding, but I’m not ready to ignore the exhibitions or high school number yet. According to Hoop Explorer, he has played 76 possessions at center, which explains some of the rebounding jump, while Maluach has only played 106 possessions. (They have only played 80 possessions on the seasons together.)

If he is going to play center more rebounds are to be expected and needed if he’s on the court with Brown that much instead of Maluach. However there is a trade off that has shown up in his net ratings at center, and last night Flagg was -5 in the game. It’s not been that impressive despite playing a current SOS that is 225th on KenPom and 66% vs bottom half Patriot and American East teams.

He posted solid counting stats, though his efficiency remains a concern, with a below-average true shooting percentage of .542. I predicted a PER of 23 for the season, and he’s currently at 27.6 PER after three games.However, it’s important to remember that two of these games were against his easiest matchups of the year at home. A stronger start would have been needed to bank valuable stats for his National Player of the Year candidacy vs teams like that, especially given that competitors like Ryan Kalkbrenner have close to a 60 PER or players that have played more difficult SOS like Johni Broome and Hunter Dickinson already have better stats and wins if he wants the accolades.

Having watched several of the games, I still don’t see “best player in college basketball” by a landslide, as he was voted. He’s a very good player, but a long way from someone like Johni Broome and his impact on winning.

I’ve seen some reactions ready to take a victory lap, but it’s pretty clear that the players with the best stats and efficiency or the most part are those that have played easier SOSs so far. There is certainly a relationship between SOS and efficiency, and Johni Broome is in a league of his own at this point. Water will continue to find it’s level as the SOS’s start to line up more as well when players aren’t playing SOS’s in the 200 and 300’s. Broome will likely increase his statistical value on some easier teams like Flagg and others have as well early.

Preseason 10-27 Update

We now have 65 minutes of data over three preseason exhibitions: one intrasquad scrimmage, an exhibition against last year’s 180th-ranked, 17-14 Division 2 team, and a game with Arizona State, likely the worst or second-worst team in the Big 12.

Flagg performed best against the D2 team, scoring 22 of his 44 points and recording his only blocks—most against their small point guard. He also contributed 6 of his 12 assists, primarily on wide-open threes by Kon Knueppel. Additionally, only 9 rebounds in 65 minutes for the starting power forward is something to watch closely.

Game Averages (over 3 games)

• Points (Pts): 44 total points
• Field Goals Made (FGM): 17
• Field Goals Attempted (FGA): 37
• 3-Pointers Made (3FGM): 3
• 3-Pointers Attempted (3FGA): 10
• Free Throws Made (FTM): 7
• Free Throws Attempted (FTA): 12
• Total Rebounds (Reb): 9
• Assists (Ast): 12
• Steals (Stls): 4
• Blocks (Blks): 3
• Turnovers (TO): 4
• Minutes (Min): 65

Shooting Percentages

• True Shooting Percentage (TS%): 52.0%
• Field Goal Percentage (FG%): 45.9%
• 3-Point Percentage (3P%): 30.0%
• Free Throw Percentage (FT%): 58.0%

Per 30 Minutes

• Points: 20.3
• Rebounds: 4.1
• Assists: 5.5
• Blocks: 1.8
• Steals: 0
• Turnovers: 1.4

If you only look at the 41 minutes vs D1 quality players the numbers are much worse.

22 points 7 rebounds, 6 assist, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 2 turnovers on 9-21, 1-5 from three, 3-5 from the line. That’s a 47.4% true shooting with a small rate of getting to the FT line. The per 30’s on these type of numbers vs D1 would be. The intra-squad Duke where his team was destroyed by 19 points in 20 minutes of action, and Arizona State who is likely one of the worst P5 teams. He has 0 steals, 0 blocks vs the D1 players.

Per 30 Minutes (D1 Only)

• Points: 16.1
• Rebounds: 5.1
• Assists: 4.3
• Blocks: 0
• Steals: 0
• Turnovers: 1.5
• True Shooting Percentage (TS%): 47.4%

Conclusion

After watching the three preseason games, I’m more impressed with Kon Knueppel than Cooper Flagg. I’m not convinced Flagg will be the best freshman on his team this season, let alone the top player in the country as many predict. Some of my initial concerns about his scoring methods and rebounding have been validated. While his passing has been solid, most of his assists have come from simply moving the ball around the perimeter rather than driving, kicking out, or creating shots for teammates. He’s benefited from Knueppel’s movement and shooting. Flagg has had his moments, and Duke has looked dominant, but I didn’t come away feeling he was the best player in college basketball this season.