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LeBron Nearing 41: Early Rust or True Decline? NBA Aging Trends Analyzed

LeBron James’ late-career journey continues to fascinate me. From previous articles on this topic Age-Defying Excellence: LeBron’s Phenomenal Play After 38 to the comparison with Michael Jordan at 39, to Age-Defying Excellence: LeBron’s Phenomenal Play Nearing 40 we’ve tracked his historic feats in the NBA at this age, particularly through Game Score, PER, and shooting efficiency in comparison to previous players at such late stages in their career.

Now, approaching 41 years old, LeBron is showing signs that I think we have to take notice in: inconsistent scoring, a dip in Game Score, and the end of his remarkable eighteen-year 1,297-game streak of scoring 10+ points. It started before modern smartphones, finally breaking the streak with a 4-for-17 shooting night, he barely reached double digits in the previous game, going 3-for-10 from the floor as well. In that game also failed to record a rebound, block, or steal for the first time in his career despite playing 31 minutes—marking his lowest 2-game stretch ever with a career-worst 2.3 Game Score. It’s a pretty brutal stretch for the King.

DateMPeFG%TRBASTSTLBLKPTSGmSc
2025-12-04350.2356110087.2
2025-12-01310.350300102.1
2025-11-28330.46257101310.1
2025-11-25320.66766112521.6
2025-11-23340.44468101712.8
2025-11-18290.714312101116.2

To put this into perspective LeBron averaged a 20.6 GameScore last season, which was his age 40 season and played mostly as a 40 year old. That’s 11.7 on average this year through 6 games. Looking ahead, maybe this is a blessing in disguise. With the burden of the streak off his shoulders, he can play freer, focus on other areas of the game, and let the scoring come naturally rather than forcing it.

We’ve seen similar late-career dips in peers like Chris Paul and Al Horford. Let’s be real they have fallen off a cliff. At this age, such struggles are not unusual—but the question remains: is this the start of a true decline, or simply a period of rust as he works back into peak form after injury and an off-season that left him playing catch-up? There is still that caveat that this is basically like LeBron’s preseason coming off injury.

Current Season Snapshot

LeBron has struggled early in the 2025-26 season. While he has had several stinker games, the Lakers are 5-1 in the games he’s played since his return, and he’s playing over 30 minutes a game. Still overall this is a big drop off from previous seasons, even his late career standards. We can all see it.

AgeGMinsPERTS%
2021-2237LAL56208426.20.619
2022-2338LAL55195423.90.583
2023-2439LAL71250423.70.630
2024-2540LAL70244422.70.604
2025-2641LAL619713.00.473

LeBron Compared to Other 40+ NBA Players

Historically, very few players have been anywhere near as effective past 40. Here are the notable examples:

PlayerAgePERTS%Notable 30+ Game Scores
Michael Jordan4019.30.4911
John Stockton4018.70.5631
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar4017.20.5740
LeBron James4022.7.6044

Aged 40+ Game Score Dominance

Hear are the 20+ Game Score games after age 40, one of the clearest ways to measure high-level production and the best games ever at an age when nearly every NBA player is retired. Keeping in mind LeBron AVERAGED over over a 20 GameScore in his age 40 season. This is basically every good game played by a 40+ year old in NBA history.

What’s most concerning is how rare it is for players to perform past 41. Historically, only three games have been recorded at this age by elite players: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar logged two games while John Stockton had one game both in their age 41 season which LeBron is in. Beyond 42, there are none,

📊 Number of 20+ Game Score Performances After Age 40 in NBA history

PlayerGmScAgeMPTS%TRBASTSTLBLKPTS
LeBron James38.740-038380.711781142
Michael Jordan36.840-004430.641034143
John Stockton32.040-018320.80294026
LeBron James31.240-094400.87591133
LeBron James30.440-064330.77861234
LeBron James30.140-059370.651761133
John Stockton28.940-251320.802104022
LeBron James28.640-003360.73380038
Michael Jordan28.340-020430.68811039
LeBron James27.040-066440.581280131
LeBron James26.240-018350.81781229
LeBron James26.040-036310.73893026
Robert Parish26.040-079350.801220426
John Stockton25.840-016370.973113018
Michael Jordan25.740-050460.611033126
Michael Jordan25.340-010500.601160035
LeBron James25.240-051380.577111226
LeBron James25.140-029330.74891031
LeBron James25.140-033370.5911120033
Vince Carter24.940-046301.35523024
LeBron James24.940-052360.73842140
LeBron James24.540-095330.66082027
LeBron James24.040-054330.62951325
Robert Parish24.040-232340.681530125
Vince Carter23.540-335301.00531124
LeBron James23.540-004300.72380030
John Stockton23.340-283300.79583020
John Stockton23.341-008320.773104015
LeBron James22.940-016380.69592022
LeBron James22.540-031270.573110024
Michael Jordan22.040-048470.531372025
Robert Parish21.940-141380.711722219
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar21.741-330300.721122119
LeBron James21.740-020350.555113125
LeBron James21.640-330320.71661125
Michael Jordan21.540-036410.60572025
LeBron James21.440-022360.5410132121
Karl Malone21.440-122270.911030020
John Stockton21.340-004370.744143116
LeBron James21.240-089370.55683125
John Stockton21.240-308280.93492020
LeBron James21.140-060370.631331028
Manu Ginóbili21.040-163270.75421226
John Stockton20.940-022410.582102023
LeBron James20.640-006360.621391021
Michael Jordan20.640-045430.461472022
LeBron James20.540-084380.57670024
Karl Malone20.540-117410.72552220
John Stockton20.540-322340.619110018
John Stockton20.540-346340.702103020
Karl Malone20.340-250280.72893111
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar20.241-003270.68631025
LeBron James20.240-026350.485121025
LeBron James20.240-057370.721231027
LeBron James20.240-100360.60731027
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar20.040-265320.71821021
Dikembe Mutombo20.040-230370.711404114

20+ Game Score Games After Age 40

  • LeBron James — 33
  • John Stockton — 10
  • Michael Jordan — 7
  • Karl Malone — 4
  • Kareem Abdul-Jabbar — 3
  • Robert Parish — 3
  • Vince Carter — 2
  • Manu Ginóbili — 1
  • Dikembe Mutombo — 1

LeBron doesn’t just lead this category—he has more than the next seven players combined. He owns:

  • 6 of the top 7 highest Game Scores after age 40
  • 4 of the top 5 scoring explosions at age 40
  • And he’s the only player besides Jordan to post a 32+ Game Score after turning 40 and has the greatest game by a 40 year old plus player.

Looking back at recent history:

  • This isn’t new from a past research his age 38 season, LeBron had 20 30+ Game Score performances, more than Jordan, Malone, or Kareem combined. He as dominated at this age in a way no one has.
  • Playoff performances further cemented his legacy: 3 30+ Game Score playoff games post-38, unmatched by peers.

Analysis: Is This the End or a Slow Start?

At times, LeBron has looked “cooked”. Yet, given his history of late-season surges and ability to adjust his conditioning, this may simply be a period of playing catch-up after injury. I’m holding out hope for that, especially considering he missed the preseason and had an unusually delayed start to the season. There is a reason or an excuse you can use at least unlike many of the other declines. If anyone is capable of maintaining an All Star level at 41, it’s LeBron—his size, skill, and basketball IQ allow him to age more gracefully. It already has, though this stretch represents a clear decline so far.

Entering his 41st year, LeBron is venturing into uncharted territory. The end of his 1,297-game scoring streak and a handful of subpar performances have understandably raised concerns. Could this be the end? Eventually, yes—every player reaches a point where All-Star-level performance is no longer possible, and retirement becomes inevitable. I don’t think LeBron will stick around to be the 5th banana or 6th man. But for now, his historical resilience, efficiency, and high-level output suggest a bounce-back is likely. He’s not far enough removed from a 23 PER seasons where he averaged a 20+ GameScore that I will shovel dirt on him. I would still expect him to finish the season with a PER north of 19 and remain a top-30 caliber player at worst—consistent with trends and rate of how players typically decline.

So, as rough as it looks right now, barring any major injuries, I predict he will still finish the season as a top-25 caliber player—which, given his age, is incredible. We’ll see—stay tuned.

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