As we approach the opening of the 2024 transfer portal in a couple of weeks, let’s reflect on our 2023 transfer rankings. The math is the math, and our methodology was a fusion of player efficiency metrics adjusted for the strength of schedule they faced. Undoubtedly, post players often emerge with high efficiency ratings, underscoring the value of robust post presences in collegiate basketball. Higher percentage baskets closer to the rim are still valuable. We don’t grade on a curve. Notably, the landscape of last season’s All-American teams bore testament to this trend, with an abundance of post players prominently featured. In fact, the All America first team boasted four such players. Interestingly though there are 3 guards/ wings ranked in the top 7 of the re-rankings. You can still be efficient in those positions as well.
Players such as Kerr Kriisa, Nicolas Timberlake, Jackson Paveletzke, Brandon Murray, Skyy Clark, Jaden Bradley, Andrew Rohde, MJ Rice , Jordan Minor, Jordan Dingle, JJ Starling and many others who were ranked highly by other outlets, never graded highly in our model and it seems for good reason. Even someone like Ryan Nembhard others ranked as highly as 2nd hasn’t preformed that well this season even while playing a much easier SOS in the WCC. The numbers seem ok, but he has a .517 true shooting percentage.
Below, we present our rankings from last season vs their numbers and ranking this season in our model.
| 2024 Rank | 2023 Rank | From | To | ADJeff 2023 | ADJeff 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hunter Dickinson | Michigan | Kans | 6.2 | 5.8 |
| 2 | 2 | Jesse Edwards | Syracuse | WVU | 5.5 | 5.6 |
| 3 | 95 | Dalton Knecht | N. Colo | Tenn | 2.7 | 5.4 |
| 4 | 149 | Quincy Olivari | Rice | Xav | 2.4 | 5.2 |
| 5 | 23 | Josh Oduro | G. Mason | Prov | 3.6 | 5.1 |
| 6 | 24 | Jaylon Tyson | Texas Tech | Cal | 3.6 | 4.7 |
| 7 | 35 | Grant Nelson | N Dak St | Bama | 3.3 | 4.7 |
| 8 | 3 | Kalib Boone | Okl St | UNLV | 5.2 | 4.6 |
| 9 | 9 | Kel’el Ware | Oregon | Ind | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| 10 | 13 | Warren Washington | Arizona St | TTU | 3.9 | 4.6 |
| 11 | 27 | David Jones | St. John’s | Mem | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| 12 | 59 | Caleb Love | UNC | Ariz | 3.0 | 4.6 |
| 13 | 4 | Tyrese Samuel | Seton Hall | UF | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| 14 | 61 | Isaac Jones | Idaho | WasSt | 3.0 | 4.5 |
| 15 | 10 | Qudus Wahab | Georgetown | PenSt | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| 16 | 12 | Graham Ike | Wyoming | Gonz | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| 17 | 200 | AJ Storr | St. John’s | Wis | 2.2 | 4.4 |
| 18 | 18 | Keshad Johnson | SD St | Ariz | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| 19 | 29 | Fardaws Aimaq | Texas Tech | Cal | 3.5 | 4.3 |
| 20 | 62 | Aaron Estrada | Hofstra | Bama | 2.9 | 4.3 |
| 21 | 145 | Great Osobor | Montana St | UtSt | 2.5 | 4.3 |
| 22 | 114 | Tramon Mark | Houston | Ark | 2.6 | 4.2 |
| 23 | 14 | Olivier Nkamhoua | Tennessee | Mich | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| 24 | 7 | Kadin Shedrick | Virginia | Texas | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| 25 | 8 | Cam Spencer | Rutgers | UCon | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| 26 | 41 | Harrison Ingram | Stanford | UNC | 3.2 | 4.0 |
| 27 | 174 | Raequan Battle | Montana St | WVU | 2.3 | 4.0 |
| 28 | 38 | Joseph Girard | Syracuse | Clem | 3.2 | 3.9 |
| 29 | 34 | Aziz Bandaogo | Utah Valley | Cincy | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| 30 | 47 | Rayj Dennis | Toledo | Baylo | 3.1 | 3.8 |
| 31 | 128 | Jeremiah Williams | Temple | Illi | 2.5 | 3.8 |
| 32 | 179 | Hunter Sallis | Gonzaga | WF | 2.3 | 3.8 |
| 33 | 11 | Will Baker | Nevada | LSU | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| 34 | 16 | LJ Cryer | Baylor | Hou | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| 35 | 53 | Allen Flanigan | Auburn | Miss | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| 36 | 63 | DJ Horne | Arizona St | NCSU | 2.9 | 3.7 |
| 37 | 82 | Walter Clayton | Iona | UF | 2.8 | 3.7 |
| 38 | 21 | Jordan Wright | Vanderbilt | LSU | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| 39 | 25 | Abou Ousmane | N. Texas | Xav | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| 40 | 57 | Keshon Gilbert | UNLV | IowSt | 3.0 | 3.6 |
| 41 | 68 | Rienk Mast | Bradley | Neb | 2.9 | 3.6 |
| 42 | 72 | Darrion Williams | Nevada | TTU | 2.9 | 3.6 |
| 43 | 74 | Posh Alexander | St. John’s | Butler | 2.9 | 3.6 |
| 44 | 153 | Marcus Domask | S. Illinois | Illi | 2.4 | 3.6 |
| 45 | 154 | Jonathan Mogbo | Mizz St | SFU | 2.4 | 3.6 |
| 46 | 158 | Ben Krikke | Valpo | Iowa | 2.4 | 3.6 |
| 47 | 17 | Hakim Hart | Maryland | Vill | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| 48 | 31 | Max Abmas* | ORU | Texas | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| 49 | 58 | Matthew Cleveland | Florida St | Miam | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| 50 | 79 | Ace Baldwin Jr. | VCU | PenSt | 2.8 | 3.5 |
| 19 | Jalen Cook | Tulane | LSU | 3.6 | 3.4 | |
| 22 | Tyler Burton | Richmond | Nova | 3.6 | 3.4 | |
| 42 | Quincy Guerrier* | Oregon | Illi | 3.2 | 3.4 | |
| 85 | Brice Williams | Charlotte | Neb | 2.8 | 3.4 | |
| 86 | B.J. Mack | Wofford | SCar | 2.8 | 3.4 |
Dalton Knecht and Quincy Olivari have emerged as unexpected talents, demonstrating remarkable improvements in efficiency and production even while leveling up from mid and low-major conferences. Knecht, hailing from a 12-20 Big Sky team, and Olivari, from a 200th ranked CUSA, have showcased notable strides in their game. Similarly, Grant Nelson and Josh Oduro, also transitioning from comparable conferences, have shown impressive growth, although their progress may have been somewhat anticipated given their prior achievements. While some players experienced challenges in converting shots despite facing easier schedules, others made significant strides in their skill sets, rendering the level of competition less relevant. Overall, the majority of players fell within the anticipated range of outcomes, with a few standout surprises and notable improvements.
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