The Transfer Exodus: Pinning Duke’s Hopes on Cooper Flagg

Duke still remains the betting favorite for next season’s championship, largely due to the high regard for Cooper Flagg. This is despite a mass exodus of players entering the transfer portal, a phenomenon unfamiliar to their fans. When the transfer portal begins to dismantle Duke, it’s evident that no one is exempt. While one might anticipate Duke will acquire some transfers, Jon Scheyer’s efforts in the portal thus far have yielded mixed results at best. Notable transfer additions include Ryan Young (6.4 Pts, 5.5 Reb, 1.3 Ast) and Jacob Grandison (4.4 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 1.3 Ast). Indeed, there has historically been a delicate balance between recruiting incoming freshmen, which inherently involves clearing the landscape for them, and showing sensitivity to highly recruited bench players who patiently await their turn. However, now they are essentially all gone, along with much of the culture that was in place, if one chooses to buy into it.

Despite securing the top prospect from high school and boasting the best incoming class, numerous studies we have conducted illustrated the challenge of relying solely on high school talent in the era of Covid’s fifth and sixth-year super seniors.

Moreover, it’s doubtful that freshmen one-and-done players will ever regain the dominance they once held, especially with the portal enabling teams to recruit and consolidate the top older talent from mid-major conferences. Previously, rebuilding was predominantly achieved with high schoolers at that level, but now teams can access the best 22-year-old players from mid-major conferences who are ready to contribute immediately. Another layer to consider is the trend of players who would have previously gone pro opting to stay and capitalize on NIL opportunities instead.

Transfering

NBA Draft

Ryan Young has exhausted his eligibility.

Returners

Tyrese Proctor found himself on the Wooden and Naismith preseason watchlists, touted as one of the nation’s top players and earning preseason All-American accolades from numerous outlets. However, we staunchly opposed that line of thinking from the outset and frankly considered it ridiculous. Looking back, our skepticism has proven to be well-founded as our list aged well as we rated Proctor as the most overvalued and Cam Spencer as the most undervalued in preseason rankings. Proctor and Caleb Foster will now shoulder the responsibility of setting the tone and establishing expectations for the incoming high schoolers or transfers as the only returning performers.

The High Schoolers

By the rankings, there’s no denying that this high school class stands out as one of the best ever on paper. However, we’re navigating uncharted territory with the portal reshaping the landscape of college basketball. Adding to the complexity is the last year of Covid’s super seniors, effectively making these players equivalent to high school juniors entering college, with most being a year older than usual. Moreover, there’s another layer to consider: players who would have gone pro early are now opting to stay for NIL money, particularly post players whom Flagg and Maluach will have to contend with.

Cooper Flagg

Let’s begin with the phenom, the prodigy who was already making waves by playing on Team USA U17 at the age of 15. His inclusion wasn’t merely symbolic; he played a pivotal role. However, competing against 17-year-olds at 15 isn’t comparable to facing 23-year-olds, as he’ll encounter next year, from our perspective.

U17 Stats

These are all very impressive stats, but they also came 2 years ago vs international players on a loaded gold medal USA team.

The McDonalds All American Game

This performance was indeed underwhelming, but it’s worth noting that it occurred in a meaningless all-star game. In the EYBL, he averaged 25.4 points, 13 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 6.9 blocks in seven games. However, one must question the level of competition in U16, where he was among the oldest and most experienced players. Additionally, the structure of play in the EYBL is different than that of high school or international competition.

High School Stats

Flagg competed for the nation’s top-ranked high school team, which boasted an impressive 34-0 record. His teammates included other highly regarded prospects such as Derik Queen (ranked 13th), Asa Newell (ranked 14th), Liam McNeeley (ranked 16th), and Rob Wright (ranked 25th). Undoubtedly, this team showcased exceptional talent, featuring five players ranked within the top 25 recruits. However, despite the formidable lineup, Flagg’s statistical performance didn’t necessarily overshadow or dominate.

In his debut year at Montverde, Flagg played an average of 17 minutes per game and scored below 10 points per game. This performance raises doubts about his status as one of the top high school prospects ever, especially considering that McNeely and McQueen outscored him on the team.

Although we lack specific minutes per game data for this past season, we can still make some reasonable assumptions based on the distribution of points per game. It suggests that the starters likely received the majority of playing time.

I’m also not sure the minute’s are accurate on the 2022-23 seasons. There doesn’t seem to be enough minutes. If this were the case it would make his 9.8ppg, 5.2rpg season look worse if he were playing minutes more minutes.

Expected Production

Flagg’s statistics, though solid, don’t necessarily stand out as exceptional, even on a highly talented high school team. Despite an impressive blocked shot rate, he appears to mostly blend in rather than shine statistically among his teammates. The resemblance of his high school team, featuring four other top 25 players, to Duke’s potential core makeup with 5 top 20 incoming freshmen next year raises intriguing parallels.

Considering Proctor, Foster, and other potential transfers Duke might pick up, Flagg’s role as savior becomes interesting. The anticipation nationally among the talking heads seems to be that he will be ranked as the top player in college basketball next season. To me, that seems quite hopeful even if the talent and upside is there.

The Age

Flagg, whose birthday is December 21, 2006, reclassified, which will allow him to sneak into the 2025 NBA draft. However, this will put him at a disadvantage at 6-9, 200lbs. He will play nearly the first two months of the season at 17 years old and will be facing many 22, 23, even 24-year-old or older players. Most of the players he will be against will also be down low where strength are exacerbated.

How would he have faired vs 24 year old’s like Armando Bacot and DJ Burns last season? Obviously he has far more NBA potential but he’s going to be 5 or 6 years younger than many of the players he will face. Can he even replicate his senior year stats of 16.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 2.9 BPG at Duke? While some players improve going to college, the norm suggests a decrease in production.

Conclusion

No one will deny the talent Duke is bringing in. I’m sure many of them will be future NBA draft picks, but will they be ready next season to power a top 5 team like everyone seems to think is the question? I’m very skeptical of that at this moment given what they are losing, just as I was highly skeptical of them last year when they were ranked 2nd in the preseason AP Poll.

Also, we’ve seen blue chip recruits like Dariq Whitehead (8.3 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 1.0 Ast) and Dereck Lively II (5.2 Pts, 5.4 Reb, 1.1 Ast), who were the 1st and 2nd ranked players in their high school class, fail to make much impact under Jon Scheyer. There are no guarantee’s and just because you are ranked highly doesn’t mean you will be great in college as a freshman. We’ve seen many of the top 20 struggle now. You don’t really know what you are getting from high schoolers in the same way you do with an older player who has years of proven experience and a resume in D1.

Taking Kentucky as an example from last year, which has a similar makeup to Duke right now, they had two freshmen who had the two best freshman seasons in the nation and will likely be top 10 NBA picks. The class overall was regarded similarly. They also had proven veterans Antonio Reeves and Tre Mitchell, who are better than any returner Duke currently has. That team finished 20th in the AP poll and 23rd on Kenpom if you want an example of what Duke is up against. That’s even if you start with Flagg and someone else in the class having the best two freshman seasons in the nation. It’s imperative in our view that Duke hits a couple of homeruns in the portal for these reasons.