| Alabama | We think Sears might come back. If not, Alabama takes a massive hit. |
| Arizona | Losing Ballo is a huge blow. Tonje was great at Colorado State two years ago, but the talent still needs upgrading in a big way to get into a higher level conversation. |
| Arkansas | Calipari has to rebuild a whole roster. So far so good with Aidoo and Davis. |
| Auburn | Broome and Pearl are a great starting point to build around. We expect Baker-Mazara to become a larger piece as well, serving as a great wing defender and shooter. |
| Baylor | Bridges could return. Baylor would still be ranked high without him, but he’s an impact player if he does return. |
| Boise State | Boise State returns as good of a duo as you can find in the nation. They did lose 2 of their big 4 from last season, however. |
| Clemson | If you were playing it safe you’d say closer to 10th, but assuming PJ Hall withdraws his name this team is stacked this year. They return some continuity from an Elite 8 team last year. |
| Creighton | Ashworth has been better than he was last year. Creighton loses a lot of athleticism, but I would expect his percentages to tick upward. |
| Duke | Yes, there is a lot of young NBA caliber talent coming in. We detail the problems we see extensively here if you have issues with our grades and why. They have since added solid parts in the portal, but the fit with Flagg will also be odd with Gillis’s lack of size and Brown’s lack of shooting. They still need a more proven point guard in my opinion. |
| Florida | A very strong team on the perimeter, with some post players returning who seem ready to step up. |
| Gonzaga | Mark Few is one of the best coaches. Ryan Nembhard is a little overrated, but Few never drops out of the Top 25. |
| Houston | Houston lost some significant players, but we still believe in the system. It’s truly the most plug-and-play in the nation the way they rebound, defend, and recruit to it. I think they get away with more physicality than any other team, but they set the tone in a way it’s normalized. |
| Illinois | Underwood has reloaded very well, but it might take some time with new parts. |
| Indiana | If this were a fantasy team or played on paper, Indiana would be stacked. However, I’m not crazy about the coaching, fit and the serious lack of shooting. |
| Iowa State | Iowa State is deep, but likely more than the sum of their parts even by our model. |
| Kansas | The most talented team, with a top 2 or 3 coach, if not the best in the game. |
| Kentucky | Kentucky has regrouped well, but I doubt the first season in Lexington meets expectations. At least the expectations Kentucky fans place on the program. |
| Marquette | I think Ighodaro might return. If he doesn’t, Marquette will take a hit. Still, a very strong team on the perimeter, which is tougher to replace in our model. |
| Memphis | The question here is Penny, especially after how Memphis folded last season. Hunter is often overrated nationally in my opinion (ranked as high as top 20), but he will play an important role for Memphis. |
| Miami | Miami has talent and a good coach, but it didn’t work last year. Pack hasn’t been as good in the last two years at Miami as he was in his last season at Kansas State. He has shown he has another level he can potentially reach. |
| Michigan | Landing Vladislav Goldin who already has played under Dusty May, and can set the tone is a big get. |
| Miss State | Losing Tolu Smith is a hit, but Jans has some talent to work with. |
| Nebraska | Solid Continuity from a solid team last year. They will miss Keisei Tominaga shooting. |
| North Carolina | Davis was great, but the post is still a big question replacing Bacot. However having a star PG the level of RJ Davis is the harder player to replace. Jalen Washington seems capable of more. |
| Northwestern | Collins is proving to be a good coach who typically does more than you would expect with the talent. |
| Ohio State | Thornton is a great player. I still question Diebler, however, as a top-flight coach. |
| Ole Miss | Ole Miss wasn’t ranked highly last year, but they have added serious talent and depth according to our model. They also have a top 10 coach. It will likely take some time to bring it all together with new parts. |
| Oregon | Dante is one of the most underrated players in the nation. Not in our model however he ranks 1st in impact, and he’s played exceptionally well for multiple years now. Last year, he just missed ten games, which hurt Oregon’s bottom line. |
| Providence | English hasn’t proven himself as a coach, but he has some good talent. However, Hopkins coming off injury could impact this projection. |
| Purdue | You can’t replace Edey; there isn’t a player in the nation capable with a 9.2 rating. It was one of the greatest seasons in college basketball history, and the best in modern times. |
| St John’s | St. John’s has a great guard returning, but they face a big loss in Joel Soriano. So far, Pitino has been a little slow in the portal. |
| Tennessee | Tennessee has some returners and finds a way. |
| Texas | Texas has talent, but coaching remains the question. Shedrick could play more minutes and seems capable of more. |
| Texas A&M | Texas A&M underperformed somewhat last year, but they could bounce back to meet expectations this season, returning several of their top players and maintaining some continuity. |
| UCLA | I guess Cronin got his NIL because he’s added serious proven talent this season. Year one in the Big Ten is the wildcard. |
| UConn | Dan Hurley is probably the best coach in the game. I’m not a huge fan of Reed as a top player, but I have to trust Hurley given what he has accomplished. I don’t think UConn is done in the portal yet as well. |
| Xavier | Freemantle, if healthy, is one of the best in the nation. How he looks coming off injury, however, is the key. Hugley can be very good, as he’s shown at Pitt before. |
