With the portal closing, let’s take a look back at last seasons projections to see where we may have fallen short. Of course no one will get everything right, but that’s what makes it fun. As an independent site, it’s enjoyable to compare sometimes and provide context for why you should continue to visit. The 2022-23 season was a pretty solid year overall for us, so let’s run through the hits and misses of 2023-24 and how it fared.
Player Rankings
Back in the preseason, we ran a comparison article with some of the top 100 national player lists from the major outlets and identified the biggest discrepancies with our model. We highlighted which of the players we thought they completely missed or others that had no business being in a top 100 ranking. Here is the link and the preseason thoughts at the time.
Below are the player we felt that were extremely under valued. All but one didn’t appear on a preseason top 100 player list. That was N’Faly Dante who was 89th.
Cam Spencer: UConn
This was our exact quote last October 29th….
“Cam Spencer was left off these lists entirely as well even after averaging 13.2ppg, 3.8rpg, 3.1apg, 2.0spg and shooting 43.4% from three on high volume 2.1 makes a game. Powering a .592% true shooting and 21.4 PER and a +29.1 net rating for a top 40 team in the Big Ten. That’s not a top 100 player?“
His numbers: 14.3 Pts, 4.9 Reb, 3.6 Ast with a 22.8 PER, .640 true shooting, 97.8 Defensive Rating and a + 42.6 net differential as the 2nd leading scorer on one of the most dominate champions in NCAA history.
This one should have been completely obvious with the way he performed at Rutgers to anyone that follows college basketball, yet everyone in the national media was asleep on him. He was ranked 52nd in the preseason in our model. You could make a case as to why he was equally as valuable statistically as Newton if not slightly better, and he was on the court a lot more minutes than Clingan. He was a big part to what made UConn so good.
N’Faly Dante: Oregon
N’Faly Dante was barely included in some of these top 100 lists, ranked 89th last preseason. Despite getting hurt in the first game of the season on November 6th and not returning until January 13th, he was awesome in his return. Easily one of the best statistical players in the nation.
His Numbers: 17.0 Pts, 9.2 Reb, 1.6 Ast, 1.9Blk with a 30.6 PER, .686 true shooting +25.9 point differential 97.9 defensive rating
Kalib Boone: UNLV
Kalib Boone He was named All-Big 12 last year 3rd team despite only playing 21 minutes a game at Oklahoma State, if that gives you any indication of how productive per minute he was. Yet despite being a top 15 player in the best conference in the nation he was on no top 100 list.
We expected him to go to UNLV and be a 30+ minute per game player, but that didn’t happen. He was still incredibly productive with a 25.6 PER and a .614 true shooting, however his own brother took many of those minutes. Keylan Boone played 31.3 minutes per game compared to Kalib’s 23.1. Kalib was still better (25.6 PER vs. 18.1), however, and we believe he should have played more.
His Numbers: 11.4 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 1.3 Ast 1.6 Blk in only 23.1 minutes a game 25.6 PER, .614 true shooting +17.6 net differential 98.3 defensive rating.
J’Wan Roberts: Houston
The anchor and starting center for one of the top teams in the nation and best defenses. Not on a top 100 list we suggest should be.
His Numbers: 9.5 Pts, 6.8 Reb, 1.9 Ast with a 23.7 PER .588 true shooting 87.3 defensive rating and +37 net differential
Tyrese Samuel: Florida
Another player not on a top 100 list we said should be. He finished as a 2nd team all SEC top 10 player.
His Numbers : 13.9 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 1.9 Ast, 24.5 PER, .574 true shooting, 104.7 defensive rating and a +14.3 net differential2nd team All SEC
Overvalued Nationally
Tyrese Proctor: Duke
Tyrese Proctor was on the Wooden and Naismith preseason watchlists, as well as being touted for All-American preseason status by various media outlets. He even garnered a vote for ACC preseason Player of the Year from the ACC coaches and attained a ranking as high as 4th in the nation according to one list we reviewed. We presented our comprehensive case in the article above as to why he wasn’t anywhere near the top 100 heading into the season.
His numbers this season: 10.5 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 3.7 Ast with a 14.4 PER, .545 true shooting.104.2 defensive rating +12.5 net differential.
Tyrese Hunter: Texas
The other Tyrese: Two seasons ago, Tyrese Hunter was a player whom many across the nation considered to possess All-American potential, landing on the Wooden and Naismith preseason award lists. We similarly challenged this notion two years ago, finding it quite absurd. Last year, Hunter was still being placed within the top 40 players nationally in some rankings and named on the All-Big 12 preseason team.
His numbers this season: 11.1 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 4.1 Ast, with a 13.6 PER, and .539 true shooting. He also had a 104.5 Defensive rating and -2.4 point differential.
Jeremy Roach: Duke
Roach is a player whom multiple media outlets list inside the top 25 players in the nation, believing he has All-American potential. We weren’t as low on him as Proctor or Hunter, but even with significant improvement this season (from .524 true shooting last year and .516 the season before, to .592 TS%), he still didn’t come close to that level of player.
His numbers this season: 14.0 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 3.3 Ast and 18.3 PER, .592 true shooting and a 3rd team All ACC
Roach was the closest on this list to proving me wrong. Good for him. He still wasn’t a top 25 player however.
Kerr Kriisa: West Virginia
Kerr Kriisa s another player who made it into the top 50 to 75 best players in the nation. The statistical data didn’t suggest anything close to that. He had a 10.8 PER and a .540 true shooting. Despite shooting far better than he ever had in his career, this season he still only had a 12.1 PER. Kriisa also had one of the worst defensive ratings you will ever seen.
His numbers this season 11.0 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 4.7 Ast with a 12.1 PER and .611 true shooting percentage with a -10 point differential 116.0 defensive rating on a 9-23 West Virginia team.
Davonte Davis: Arkansas
Davonte Davis had a much worse season than even I expected, and I expected almost nothing.
His Numbers: 5.9 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 2.0 Ast with a 7.8 PER and .457 true shooting 114.2 defensive rating, -17.1 net differential on a losing Arkansas team.
Below are the teams and major difference we highlighted and how they finished the season in the arbitrator of all, KenPom.
Duke
Preseason
TRN
10
AP
2
Coaches
3
Final KenPom 7th
Some of this ranking may be slightly skewed however is aided by a win over Houston in the tournament with Jamal Shead getting injured and only playing 13 minutes. The difference in our view of Proctor and the national media was one of the main reasons we had Duke as a 3 seed in the preseason, to which Duke’s message board had a field day with a post of our link. They ended up as a 4 seed.
Maryland
TRN
11
AP
NR (30)
Coaches
NR (28)
Final KenPom ranking 62nd
I’ll own this one. I still think returning their two stars Jahmir Young, Julian Reese, and their 3rd best player Donta Scott returning it was a very reasonable pick a the time for a team that was 23rd in Kenpom the prior season. This season was pretty baffling, but one where the process I think was correct going into the season with what they returned. They had the stars, the role players let them down which should be the easier players to acquire.
Auburn
TRN
14
AP
No Votes
Coaches
NR (39)
FinalKenPom Rank: 4th
This is one of our best calls, based mostly on the undervaluing of J. Broome.
Kentucky
TRN
38
AP
16
Coaches
16
Final KenPom Rank 23rd
It was the least highly recruited freshman, Reed Sheppard, that no one expected to step up in their freshman class, who actually salvaged their season and emerged as the best freshman in basketball. If they hadn’t had the kind of season from him and the second-worst-rated recruit Dillingham as they did. If they were as dependent on Edwards and Wagner like everyone thought they would be, they would have been much worse off.
Oregon
TRN
20
AP
No Votes
Coaches
NR(44)
Final KenPom Ranking 55th
N’Faly Dante missed 14 games on the season which impacted their rankings. He was the reason we ranked them as highly as we did being 3rd highest rated player in the nation in our model.
USC
TRN
43
AP
21
Coaches
22
Final KenPom Ranking: 85th
UCLA
TRN
46
AP
NR(29)
Coaches
25
Final KenPom Ranking : 98th
Virginia
TRN
61
AP
NR(31)
Coaches
NR(34)
Final KenPom Ranking: 68th
Conclusion
Player rankings are much easier than team rankings, with so many more moving parts to consider, including coaching, fit, injuries, and more. Overall, our model and ranking system performed very, very well. The players I thought were underrated mostly performed exceptionally well, while those I didn’t expect much from were mostly as anticipated.
