Before the NBA Draft, when Alex Sarr was the projected number one pick and Zach Edey was still being projected as a late first-round or early second-round selection, I conducted a detailed comparison that highlighted why I would have chosen Edey as the top center in the draft.
The Washington Wizards eventually selected Alex Sarr 2nd in the NBA Draft brought a wave of excitement to the franchise and their fans. The young center, touted for his defensive abilities and potential to stretch the floor, entered the 2024 NBA Summer League with high expectations. Unfortunately, Sarr’s performance has not only raised eyebrows but has also sparked concerns about his readiness for the NBA.
Perspective
Over four games, Sarr averaged just 5.5 points per game on a dismal 19.1% shooting from the field, going 9-47. His three-point shooting was equally problematic, as he connected on just 11.8% of his shots from beyond the arc, going 2-17. At the free-throw line, he managed to get to the line 4 times in 4 games which might be the biggest red flag of all for a center playing this level of competition. Sarr was also below average on the boards, averaging 7.75. The only brighter spots were the 3.25 assists, 0.75 steals, and 2.5 blocks per game for a center, but his 2.25 turnovers and 4.25 personal fouls per game were also farther negatives. This all over 29.6 minutes per game and 4 games.
Of any of the qualifying rookies in this class Sarr was easily the worst by a mile with a 3.7 PER.
TS%
NetDiff
PER
8
Tristan Da Silva
ORL
0.829
48.5
28.6
27
Jaylon Tyson
CLE
0.684
13.8
23.2
33
Trey Alexander
DEN
0.688
20.1
22.5
46
Ron Holland
DET
0.47
0.5
20.8
51
Reed Sheppard
HOU
0.561
3.3
20.4
74
Terrence Shannon, Jr.
MIN
0.664
16.6
17.7
94
Donovan Clingan
POR
0.403
-3.7
16.1
98
Tyler Kolek
NYK
0.482
4.5
15.9
100
Bub Carrington
WAS
0.496
4.3
15.7
117
Baylor Scheierman
BOS
0.518
-2.6
14.8
136
Yves Missi
NOP
0.512
-10.8
13.7
139
Tidjane Salaun
CHA
0.457
8.6
13.5
151
Jonathan Mogbo
TOR
0.595
8.3
12.8
152
Zaccharie Risacher
ATL
0.467
-7.8
12.8
158
Johnny Furphy
IND
0.491
-7.5
12.3
162
Tristen Newton
IND
0.43
-12.6
11.8
163
Rob Dillingham
MIN
0.426
-11.5
11.7
164
Ja’Kobe Walter
TOR
0.517
-9.9
11.6
195
Reece Beekman
GSW
0.474
11.1
8.5
210
Ryan Dunn
PHX
0.355
-28.1
7.0
230
Alex Sarr
WAS
0.226
-33.8
3.7
Comparisons to Past Lottery Disappointments
Shooting poorly in a few Summer League games isn’t a career-ender, but it should be a glaring warning sign. While we’ve seen guards shoot relatively poorly and still go on to have good careers. One of the biggest busts and worst players in NBA history, Adam Morrison, crushed his first Summer League, averaging 24.6 points per game with a 26.9 PER. While Summer League performance doesn’t necessarily guarantee success or failure, it can be an early indicator, especially when a player struggles as much as Alex Sarr did.
It’s incredibly challenging for a post player to shoot as poorly as Sarr did while also failing to get to the free-throw line. Even notorious post player busts like Anthony Bennett, Marvin Bagley, or Hasheem Thabeet had relatively decent Summer League performances by comparison with PERs in the 10 to 13 range, statistically speaking, even if they were still disappointing. Sarr’s performance was on another level of bad. The only top-5 pick with a similarly poor Summer League debut was Dragan Bender, who posted a 2.58 PER. This is not an encouraging sign.
What’s Next for Sarr and the Wizards?
A lot of losing is likely in the cards for the Washington Wizards, especially considering Alex Sarr’s underwhelming debut in the Summer League. He’s proven his abilities to be the tank commander. The silver lining, compared to someone like Dragan Bender—who posted similarly poor stats in his debut—is that most of Sarr’s negative value stemmed from his atrocious shooting. Sarr did show some flashes of defensive potential, offering a glimmer of hope that he could develop into a solid defender in the future. But given where he was drafted, if I were a Washington fan, I wouldn’t be feeling very optimistic. The gap between expectations for a top pick and his actual performance is wide, and it’s hard to see stardom.
The Washington Wizards find themselves in a precarious situation. Alex Sarr was drafted with the hope that he could develop into a key piece for the future, but his Summer League performance has cast doubt on his potential impact. While it’s important to remember that the Summer League is not always indicative of future success, Sarr’s struggles—especially on the offensive end—cannot be ignored.
