Zach Edey: Rookie of the Year

It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of Zach Edey‘s NBA prospects. I picked him as the best player in college basketball even before his junior year and rated him as a high NBA draft pick ever since, long before anyone else did. Even as others are catching up, they are still too low on him. I had him as my number one prospect in the 2024 draft since 2023 and have built the case in multiple articles. Now that he’s been picked 9th and currently has the 4th best betting odds to win Rookie of the Year at +1000, we will be looking at his fit in Memphis and why I think you should seriously consider hammering that bet.

Rookie of the Year Odds

The biggest competition for Edey in the betting market is Alex Sarr, Stephon Castle, and Tidjane Salaun, which to me is quite surprising given their odds are much better or similar in the case of Salaun. Certainly, they are playing on weaker teams and have an easier path to playing time and usage in the name of shots. I suppose some awards voters could still be swayed by raw numbers, but I can’t see them being efficient. Recently, voters seem to be more sophisticated and able to see through such high volume situations and pick the player that is more deserving.

+350 Alex Sarr

Alex Sarr hasn’t even cracked double-digit scoring in the last two years at Overtime Elite and the Australian NBL. Last season, he averaged 9.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, and 1.4 bpg while playing behind Keanu Pinder , who averaged 2ppg at Arizona. I will say Sarr had a 21 Player Efficiency Rating (PER) in the Australian NBL, which isn’t bad, but there were other prospects who performed better. Additionally, his rebounding is weak and will likely be even more troublesome in the NBA.

I’m not sure what people expect Castle to do. The only positive I see is that playing with Victor Wembanyama will take all the pressure off him and provide some open shots. Tidjane Salaun’s high ranking seems to be entirely due to his playing on a terrible team in Charlotte. Someone has to shoot the ball, and he will make a few. He averaged 9 ppg and 3 rpg with a 13 PER in Europe, a better league than the NBL. I can’t see him having an inside track to Rookie of the Year odds anywhere near 5th best. Maybe some trades will be made, but most of the other top rookies have competition for minutes and are unlikely to have high usage or minute roles, such as Donovan Clingan, Reed Sheppard, Dalton Knecht, Rob Dillingham etc.

The Perfect Situation

That brings us to Zach Edey, who I believe has landed in an almost perfect situation. Santi Aldama is the biggest competition at Center currently. While there is certainly a possibility that the Grizzlies could bring in another center through trade or free agency. However, I think the likelihood of that center being better than Zach Edey is pretty low unless they put some resources into getting a center or manage to make a great value trade. I still believe Edey will get a chance and have a role even if they do make a trade. He’s been very durable which is also important.

I believe Edey will have an opportunity to start on what should be a very good Grizzlies team, only one year removed from 51 wins and a 2nd place regular season finish in the West. Bouncing back from injuries they will be expected to be good. I believe Edey can give them in rebounding and screening what Steven Adams did (8.6ppg, 11.5rpg in 27 minutes) and likely more offensively that year.

Even if Edey’s role is reduced to something around 20 minutes per game, I still think he will be highly productive in those minutes. I can easily see him putting up a highly efficient 12+ ppg and 7+ rpg in 20 minutes as a floor, if not something more along the lines of what he did at Purdue in a similar 19-minute per game role, where he averaged 14.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg, and 1.2 bpg. You have to remember at Purdue he had to temper his aggression and force some the last two years to stay out of foul trouble. Reducing the minutes really only increases they force he plays with and he was still able to be equally productive even while dialing it back the last two years.

Conclusion

For Edey, it really comes down to the minutes. Even if he’s playing 20 minutes a game, I think he’s going to put up big stats on a top 4 seed team. I believe he will be much more than Boban Marjanović, as a player and on defense. Even when Boban played 20 minutes a game, he put up big-time stats. He was a small sample size Hall of Famer.

Boban made 25 starts in his career as of a couple years ago when I wrote that article. These were his stats.

I think Edey’s numbers will look as good or better when you consider some of those were after Boban was already 30 and past his prime. That’s even if you believe he’s only Boban as I heard an ESPN contributor slander Edey as like he wasn’t highly productive anytime he ever got a chance to play.

Edey is much faster and better on defense as well, and having Jaren Jackson Jr. beside him will help. In fact, I think together they could be incredible on defense. I’ve said for 2 years that if Brook Lopez who was never even as fast at the combine as Edey can have the defensive season he did at 35 years old post back surgery what are we talking about here. Edey can be passable at worst if they put him in drop coverage. I’ve made that comparison long before I heard anyone say it, and finally some on the CBS draft show did.

The thing about his playing time and situation no one accounts for is his offense and that teams will have to find a way to stop him. He’s such a force that teams will have to adapt to him more than he has to adapt to the way they are playing, in my opinion, and that’s what I would expect from day one. He’s 7’4″, 300 lbs, and moves great for his size. You got to figure out a way to deal with that too, and perhaps there is no answer. Even if the minutes are limited and he’s only around 12ppg 8rpg, 1bpg in 20 minutes which I think is about he lower end prediction, if he’s doing that with about a 25+ PER on a 50 win team he should be the ROY over someone putting up something like 17ppg 8rpg inefficiently on a terrible team in 30 minutes a game. If Edey gets true starter minutes and is a durable as he’s shown, watch out.

Prediction: Rookie of the Year