| Boston College | The roster for a 181st-ranked returning team actually doesn’t look that bad. Hand has more star power than most teams in this range. Coaching under Earl Grant has been a roller coaster with little consistency. This year seems like more of an up year with Forte joining Hand. |
| Cal | Cal has had some talented rosters on paper since Madsen arrived. This one appears to be the least impressive. I do like Chris Bell’s shooting ability and upside. |
| Clemson | The forever-hot-seat conversation has come full circle, and Brownell seems to be getting more out of the talent recently. He’ll need to again with this roster to stay near the bubble. It appears pretty weak with all the losses. |
| Duke | I’ve been more skeptical of Scheyer, but I think he’s earned belief in managing freshmen, even if it’s a more uncertain path. He’ll have to depend on them heavily again this season. Brown’s impact is underrated—he’s capable of more based on what we saw at Syracuse. |
| Florida State | Loucks did better than expected this offseason, considering the rumored financial issues at FSU. This isn’t a highly talented team, but it makes sense. Steen averaged 17 PPG and 10 RPG in D2 and is likely one of their best players. Wiggins was poached from Clemson in a move that didn’t make a lot of sense—he seemed poised for a bigger role there. |
| Georgia Tech | Ndongo is a better player than most teams at this level have and gives GT a higher ceiling. They’re one of those dangerous, low-floor teams that can pull upsets. However, the rest of the roster isn’t very impressive. |
| Louisville | Fru might be the best player no one is talking about. He put up 12 PPG, 6 RPG, and a 23 PER in the third-best league in the world—where players like Carson Edwards only averaged 16 PPG and a 16 PER. Overall, Kelsey plays too many guys and undercuts the better players’ impact. Last year’s injuries forced him to tighten the rotation, which actually helped. |
| Miami | Miami ranks 32nd in pure talent, but fit and a very green coach will determine their finish. I was skeptical of the Lucas hire, but he delivered talent. Now we’ll see if he can coach. |
| NC State | Wade said UNC was dumb for not playing Lubin—I think that’s obvious. Look for him to make a big impact this year. The team around him—Williams, Arceneaux, Copeland, and Holloman—is rugged defensively and makes a lot of sense. With Wade’s track record at McNeese for finding value, expect a massive jump. |
| North Carolina | This is a $14 million roster that looks very questionable. I like Veesar, but there’s little depth or proven frontcourt talent. Trimble is a good player but needs to make threes at 6’3″—he’s basically playing SF. Stevenson, Powell, and Young are all sub-10 PER guys and unimpressive additions they’ll be relying on. Bogavac and Wilson need to be stars. Bogavac’s international translations were less impressive than expected. |
| Notre Dame | Burton and Shrewsberry return, giving some continuity. They add a good freshman, but I don’t see a big leap unless Haralson is a star. Losing Tae Davis was a blow for a team building mostly through development and youth. |
| Pitt | This might be the year Capel lands back on the hot seat. I like Corhen and Jackson, but they’re redundant, and I don’t see much else on this roster. |
| SMU | Miller seems underrated nationally and returns to lead a top-50 team. He gives them continuity and a strong starting point with the ball in his hands. He’s clearly the star. |
| Stanford | This roster failed to come close to replacing Raynaud. The best players are likely Dent-Smith from D2 or Agarwal—that’s a huge drop-off. They’ll rely mostly on development from 6–7 PPG scorers returning. |
| Syracuse | This also feels like a make-or-break year for Autry. Freeman has star potential, but the model is very low on George and the team overall. |
| Virginia | This ranking hinges on De Ridder’s eligibility—he’s one of the most impressive internationals in the translations. Thomas is the most proven option after him. Odom had a top-30 team last year in the A-10, and this roster is talented enough to compete at that level again. |
| Virginia Tech | Lawal is a top-100 player in the model—one of the lowest-rated teams to have one. Individually he’s talented, but the team was 164th last year. Jumping to this level in one season is a leap, but Hansberry and Dorn (whose international stats also rate highly) give him help. Young has had consistently top-80 teams, so I expect them to bounce back. I think they invested more money into the roster this year rather than firing him. Another down year, though, and it might be on the table. |
| Wake Forest | Forbes has a history of getting strong production from unexpected transfers. This seems like a year where he’ll really need it—the roster doesn’t look great on paper. |
