The season is now well into February and next month the transfer portal will heat up again as many teams complete their seasons. Now into our 2nd full season since the NCAA allowed players to transfer free, I think it’s a good time to take a look at how some of these transfers faired. There have obviously been many success stories including last year’s Player of the year; Oscar Tshiebwe, Teams can be rebuilt or dismantled certainly in this period. What we will be looking at here is how the transfers who transferred up competed this season.
Often times these players are derided for moving up. I’ve even seen some articles that talk about them not playing as many minutes or scoring as much which is a pretty myopic way to view success or failure in this context. Certainly, if a player is transferring up to any team that is better their role is likely to change. That’s what happens when you surround them with better talent, their usage is likely to go down. Not talked about as much is that with less pressure the efficiency should go up some even verses a stronger strength of schedule. What we have found surprisingly from our list of top-ranked transfers is that in many cases the role didn’t change much, and many of these players are just as efficient even vs better teams.
Last spring we ranked the transfer’s peak statistical season by Adjusted Efficiency (ADJeff) and tried to account for the strength of the schedule. These were the players that transferred from a non-P6 program to a P6 (P5 plus Big East). I’m especially interested in those that came from a conference typically outside of the top 10.
This is the ADJeff rankings for those transfers that went from mid-major to P6 and their overall rank on the ADJeff top 200 transfers.
I’ve graded each transfer’s transition up and the Success Rate seems to be 72% of those we ranked in the top 200 transfers. They breakdown into essentially 3 even groups.
Group 1
The transfer had similar stats, roles, or PER’s & Efficiency.
Highly Successful
DJ Burns 6-9, 260 Winthrop Jr
Jahmir Young 6-2, 185 Charlotte Jr
Javon Franklin 6-7, 220 South Alabama Sr
Mylyjael Poteat 6-9, 260 Rice So
Terry Roberts 6-3, 180 Bradley Jr
Desmond Cambridge 6-4, 185 Nevada Sr
Souley Boum 6-3, 163 UTEP Jr
Ricky Council 6-6-205 Wichita St So
Grant Basile 6-9, 225 Wright State Jr
Will Richard 6-5, 195 Belmont Fr
Baylor Scheierman 6-6, 180 S. Dakota St So
Sir?Jabari Rice 6-4, 180 New Mexico State Jr
Makhi Mitchell 6-9, 230 Rhode Island So
Mike Jones 6-5, 210 Davidson Jr
Cam Spencer 6-4, 205 Loyola Md So
D?Moi Hodge 6-4, 180 Cleveland State So
Group 2
The transfers in this category were valuable rotation players or starters and while not as productive as they were at their previous stop still overall impressive and positive players.
Successful Transfers
Mark Sears 6-1, 185 Ohio Jr
Antonio Reeves 6-4, 185 Illinois State Jr
Malachi Smith 6-4, 205 Chattanooga So
Isiaih Mosley 6-5, 205 Missouri State Jr
Marcus Hammond 6-2, 160 Niagara Sr
Tristen Newton 6-5, 200 ECU So
Trey Bonham 6-0, 170 VMI Fr
KC Ndefo 6-7, 195 St Peter?s Sr
Trae Hannibal 6-2, 210 Murray State So
Max Klesmit 6-3, 180 Wofford Fr
Ben Vander Plas 6-8, 232 Ohio Sr
Sam Griesel 6-6, 215 North Dakota State Sr
Lance Terry 6-2, 180 Gardner Webb Jr
Desi Sills 6-1, 202 Arkansas St Jr
Andrew Funk 6-5, 188 Bucknell Sr
Group 3
These players were disappointing. Big drops in production and efficiency if they were playable at all.
Disappointing
Tyreke Key 6-3, 205 Indiana St Sr
Hayden Brown 6-5, 225 Citadel Gr
Jao Ituka 6-1, 196 Marist Fr
John-Michael Wright 6-1,185 High Point Jr
Joe Bamisile 6-4, 195 G. Washington So
Tanner Holden 6-6, 185 Wright State Jr
Kendal Coleman 6-8, 229 Northwestern St Fr
Theo Akwuba 6-11, 225 ULL Sr
Josh Mballa 6-7, 220 Buffalo Sr
Ethan Wright 6-3, 190 Princeton Jr
Justice Hill 6-0, 170- Murray State Sr
Jaelin Llewellyn 6-2, 175 Princeton Jr
D?maurian Williams 6-5, 195 G Webb So
Ali Ali 6-8, 205 Akron So
Justin Hill 6-0, 185 Longwood Fr
I would define the first two groups as successful transfers and the last group as disappointing.
There are some interesting aspects to come out of this. For instance, Grant Basile seemed to not miss a beat moving up to the ACC while his Wright State teammate Tanner Holden has played what I would call poorly in the Big Ten. It’s a similar situation with KJ Williams and his two Murray State teammates. They are playing under the same coach as well. Williams seems to be having no issue playing at a higher level while his two teammates moving up with him have taken pretty large hits. I theorize the move-up must be easier on post players which would make sense.
Conclusion
I believe the common thought in college basketball is players moving up don’t find success or better situations, but I believe that’s not actually true. Not if you know what to look for. The players that were highly efficient at lower levels overall mostly have been successful in moving up. 72% is a high success rate for mid-major recruits in our Top 200. Even some of the disappointing group could have just had overall slump years when they didn’t shoot as well even had they stayed. Not everyone actually improves and we see that occasionally. The story isn’t fully written on some either that aren’t graduating as well and they may eventually get their chance and end up successful too.
I was actually kind of surprised at how well most of our rankings translated. For instance, when I started tracking their numbers I really wouldn’t have expected guys like Cam Spencer or D?Moi Hodge to have played as well as they did moving up to the point of almost not missing a beat. The schedules they played last season were just so bad which is why they were ranked near the bottom of our top 200 when we adjusted their statistical impact down for weak strength of schedules. They both overcame that easily.
If you are a mid-major recruit looking to move up I believe the odds are certainly in your favor if you are highly efficient and find the right spot to use your talent. Some of the players coming from much lower levels have put themselves on the national map like Norchad Omier, Souley Boum, Johni Broome, Cam Spencer or D?Moi Hodge. They have erased any doubt that may have existed that they can compete at a higher level. If you can play it shows.
