College basketball comes at you fast, from the season’s opening tip to exam week. It’s only when the calendar shifts to exams and the holiday season that we start to catch our breath and take a step back to evaluate where things stand. Now, a third of the way through the season for many teams, it feels like the right time for an update. Nearly three weeks have passed since our last check-in, and with most of the out-of-conference games behind us, the picture is starting to come into clearer focus.
Conferences
One prediction that has materialized is the dominance of the SEC as the best conference in college basketball—and it’s not even close. With the OOC slate nearly complete, there’s little that can alter this narrative. It’s one of the most dominate years seen. In our preseason rankings, we had the SEC ahead of the Big 12 substantially, and now that gap has only widened. On the other hand, the ACC, which we projected to be the weakest of the Power Five, has proven correct, and the disparity is stark vs the SEC as demonstrated in a challenge that was anything but. Let’s take a closer look at where things stand now with conference rankings and overall talent rating going into the season.
TRN Preseason
Current NET
Preseason
Preseason Average
Talent Rating
1
1
SEC
34.75
3.56
2
2
Big 12
44.75
3.34
3
3
Big Ten
45.16
3.18
4
4
Big East
51.18
3.13
5
5
ACC
60.78
2.91
We got the MWC and most of the others in the top 10 but one I didn’t see coming however is CUSA who currently ranks 7th in conference net.
Current NET
SEC
1
128-19
0.8707
Big 12
2
103-36
0.741
Big Ten
3
113-28
0.8014
Big East
4
76-30
0.717
ACC
5
101-56
0.6433
Mountain West
6
50-39
0.5618
Conference USA
7
43-34
0.5584
Atlantic 10
8
86-48
0.6418
West Coast
9
53-44
0.5464
Missouri Valley
10
47-35
0.5732
Big West
11
40-37
0.5195
American Athletic
12
61-51
0.5446
Teams With the Most Difference
The teams where my preseason rankings deviated most from the national consensus overall are performing well. The 22 teams showing the biggest differences in the top 100 going into the season 13-9 in our favor going by NET Rankings. The biggest misses are Illinois and Oregon which we were lower on than national consensus. Importantly, we were much closer in our top 30. Of the 8 teams we highlighted in the top 28, 7 are outperforming expectations, with a 7-1 record the top, reflecting our higher or lower rankings and being on the right side of the prediction to this point.
TRN Preseason
Preseason Consensus
Current NET
13
Duke
4
4
14
Kentucky
22.4
5
18
Mississippi State
34.4
24
20
Ole Miss
33.4
29
22
Purdue
12.3
28
24
Arizona
8.7
46
26
Clemson
37.3
12
28
Vanderbilt
76.5
52
Kentucky has led the way exceeding expectations more than even we predicted, while Arizona carries the torch in the opposite direction. It’s nice to see Clemson 12th who I placed a +75000 future on to win the national title. Schieffelin was also one of the more contentious player ranks I had in the preseason. He leads the nation in rebounding. Vanderbilt sits a 9-1 and also seems to be ready for more.
Players
The inefficient guards who were ranked nationally are mostly still inefficient and struggling, although water finds its level, and for the most part, that’s been the case with shooting this season. However Ryan Nembhard has exceeded my expectations so far, defying over 100 games of history and he is having a productive season vs a strong SOS to this point. Many of the others, however, are a mixed bag. The fiercest debates in the offseason, excluding Nembhard and Flagg, have resulted in many of the following.
You can click on the profile and see how it’s going but most of those are performing closer to our rankings.
While it’s still relatively early, with about 30% of the season completed, trends are beginning to solidify, and many of our offseason assumptions are quickly becoming reality wrong or right. As teams settle into their rhythms, it’s becoming clearer which predictions are on track and which are off the mark. The next few weeks will provide even more clarity once conference play starts and many of these teams are on the road more, but for now, the early returns are already shaping the narrative for the rest of the season.
Week Two Preseason Predictions Progression
As the 3rd week of action unfolds, some predictions are progressing as expected, while others are raising eyebrows. Here’s a breakdown of notable team and player performances:
11-18 Update
Teams Previously in the Concern Category Moving Off
Ole Miss: A commanding 89-69 win over Colorado State (ranked in the 60s preseason) signals improvement going to 4-0. Their big men playing more, addressing last weeks concerns well.
DePaul: At 4-0, including an 84-58 victory over Duquesne, their top-100 preseason ranking looks more solid again. Layden Blocker however seems to be who we thought he was and it’s not good while some in the preseason said I was wrong. He’s averaging 6ppg in 18 minutes a game.
Mixed Performances / Not Looking Good
Eastern Michigan: Jalen Terry shined with 28 points and 9 rebounds in a win over IU Indy, but a road loss to Cleveland State exposes inconsistency and I don’t trust the coaching still.
William & Mary: A mix of good and bad results keeps their preseason outlook seems to high.
Purdue: We had Purdue lower at 22nd vs 12th on average and they got a great home win over Alabama. I’m not completely sold, but add this one to the concerned list as of team predictions as a couple come off. We’ve moved them up to 13th.
Still Looking Good
Seton Hall: Losses to Hofstra was added this week to Fordham last seem to confirm they are among the weakest power-conference teams, as predicted while others had them much higher. Garwey Dual is averaging 1.3ppg in 22 minutes. A player some told me I was wrong on in the preseason.
Arizona: Ranked 24th in preseason by TRN analysis (vs. top-8 average nationally), they lost to Wisconsin (103-88), a team ranked higher here (34th vs. 50th) is looking like a strong prediction.
Duke: A neutral-court loss to Kentucky (14th at TRN vs. 22nd nationally preseason rank) supports the lower-than-average preseason ranking (4th nationally TRN had 13th). Picking Andrew Carr 64th and best player on Kentucky is looking solid.
Villanova: A surprising loss to St. Joe’s adds to their early struggles and our lower prediction.
Cal Poly: With road wins over Eastern Washington and a home victory against Seattle, they are still emerging as a strong sleeper team.
UT Martin: Despite a lopsided loss to North Alabama, their narrow defeat at Longwood suggests they’ll still going to be a tough out in the OVC for a deep sleeper.
Dayton: Zed Key is excelling, leading the 4-0 Flyers to a solid win over Northwestern while averaging 13 points and 4 rebounds.
Vanderbilt: McGlockton continues to impress, and Vandy moves to 4-0 with a 16 point win over Cal.
Player Highlights and Lowlights
Sincere Parker (McNeese State): Scored 19 points in 21 minutes against Alabama in a competitive 8 point loss. The minutes remain a concern but the talent seems to be there for Parker and McNeese.
Ryan Nembhard: Averaging 10 points and 10 assists on 57% three-point shooting (4-7). While regression is expected, his start defies preseason skepticism vs a strong SOS, including this one.
Thomas Sorber: Continues to impress, even as his team struggles, we had him as the 4th best freshman coming in much lower than the 40+ consensus.
Jackson Shelstad: Off to a rough start with a 12 PER and 35% true shooting percentage.
TJ Power: Struggling early, averaging just 3 points per game with an 8 PER, who some told me would be good as well.
Inefficient Guards
At the start of the season, we identified key players where our rankings differed significantly from those of other national outlets. With the season now approximately 13% complete—most teams having played around 4 games—lets revisit those players and assess how they’re performing compared to expectations.
As always, I entered this college basketball season with plenty of preseason predictions, and after the first week of play, there’s a lot to unpack. While many of my calls are tracking well, a few have raised early concerns. Here’s a breakdown of the highlights and lowlights from my predictions so far.
The Good
UCF
Ranking UCF at 41st was bold, with my projection averaging 28 spots higher than most outlets and 42 spots higher than Sports Illustrated. Their win over 13th-ranked Texas A&M was a great indicator that UCF could be closer to where I have them pegged.
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt’s 39-point win over Maryland Eastern Shore—despite missing starters AJ Hoggard and their center—reinforces my sleeper pick for them. Devin McGlockton, whose potential I’ve highlighted to the dismay of some, impressed on opening night with 24 points and 13 rebounds on 10-for-10 shooting, giving him the second-highest PER nationally after one game. This same Maryland Eastern Shore team only lost by one at Penn in their next game we identified as a deep sleeper, underscoring Vandy’s strong performance. Vandy followed that up beating SEMO by 9 points with McGloctkon going for 14 points 19 rebounds 4 blocks in 26 minutes turning in another strong performance. Vanderbilt was only 3-25 from three while SEMO was 12-25 which is kind of impressive to still win comfortably. I’m still confident they are a good outside shooting team.
Villanova
Despite being ranked 20th-25th by respected sources like KenPom and BPI, Villanova has stumbled, losing to Columbia and barely scraping by Lafayette. My own ranking of 68th (nine spots lower than any other source) may even prove generous if their current trend continues.
BYU
BYU, ranked 21st by KenPom, struggled to secure a six-point home win over UC Riverside, a lackluster result that aligns with my more conservative projection of 57th.
San Diego State
I had San Diego State 24 spots lower than the consensus, and their narrow five-point home win over UC San Diego supports this lower estimation.
Seton Hall
In the preseason I thought Seton Hall had easily one of the 3 worst rosters from the power conferences. 2nd worst infact behind Colorado. It took Colorado 2 OT’s to finish Northern Colorado, and Seton Hall lost to Fordham. Seton Hall was ranked 35 spots on average higher than the consensus I put them and as high as 63rd by one outlet, so I was much lower.
Deep Sleepers
My deep sleeper picks are off to a promising start:
Pacific is 2-0 with a quality win over a Mountain West Conference team, even down a starter.
UT Martin snagged a solid road victory over Illinois State.
Cal Poly was highly competitive against respectable teams like Cal and San Francisco.
Incarnate Word also showed resilience with a close 5-point loss to top-150 Cal Baptist.
IU Indy gave Xavier a game and has looked very solid so far as predicted.
Kidd continues to excel with his efficient shooting. After finishing 4th nationally last season with a 70% true shooting percentage, he went 10-for-11 in his opener, tallying 24 points and 9 rebounds. I ranked him 13th, and no other outlet had him in the top 110. His impressive performance suggests my model was spot-on here.
Bilodeau, whom I ranked 57th, was largely overlooked in preseason rankings (even landing as low as 618th by one with a PHD). He’s averaging 20.5 points and 10.5 rebounds, highlighted by a 25-point, 15-rebound performance against New Mexico. It seems my model’s high expectations for him are on target.
Ranked as the 4th-best freshman in my preseason list, Sorber’s early stats (23 points and 11 rebounds per game with a 33 PER) confirm that I was onto something. National rankings had him much lower (40th and 45th on RSCI and 247, respectively).
Flagg’s performance in his first two games has been promising in certain respects. He posted solid counting stats, though his efficiency remains a concern with a true shooting percentage of 52.0%. I predicted a PER of 23 for the season, and he’s currently at 27.7 PER after two games against Maine (a team I believe is overrated) and Army (one of the weaker teams in the country). However, these were likely his easiest matchups of the year, and a stronger start would have been needed to bank valuable stats for his National Player of the Year candidacy, especially given that competitors like Ryan Kalkbrenner and Kam Jones are off to explosive starts with PERs in the 50’s and 60’s respectively. Having watched several of the games I don’t see “best player in college basketball” by a landslide as he was voted.
Dainja logged 25 and 32 minutes even sharing the court briefly with big man Cisse and played well in a 2-0 star beating Mizz and going to UNLV and winning on the road. With T. Smith entering the portal, it looks like Dainja may get more minutes this season, which could validate my favorable outlook for him. It’s really just a matter of minutes IMO and it appears he will get them this season. Memphis plays a brutal OOC, so he only needs to tread water until he can eat in the AAC.
Inefficient Guards
So far, most guards I predicted would struggle with inefficiency have proven me right. Players like Tyrese Proctor have underwhelmed, and guards such as Aidan Mahaney, Kylan Boswell, and others are all posting PERs below 15. Mahaney, for instance, recorded zero points and just three assists in 23 minutes against Sacred Heart. The only two guards who’ve started strong are Elliot Cadeau and Jaden Bradley, though I don’t expect it to last.
The Bad
These are the projections giving me some early regret, in part because I had some reservations with a couple.
Ole Miss
A two-point win over Grambling is a major red flag, especially given their lack of big-man rotations—a significant preseason concern. They barely even played the bigs they have. This is a team that worried me some despite how many proven top 200 level players they had. All being on the perimeter is worrisome.
DePaul
DePaul narrowly escaped an overtime win against Southern Indiana, casting some doubt on my prediction that they’d sneak inside the top 100.
Eastern Michigan
Losing by 20 to Texas State isn’t encouraging, especially for a program that’s seen underachievement in recent years, even with NBA-level talent on its roster. It seems like it could be more of the same from Stan Heath, who’s results don’t match the resume he had before arriving even if the talent is better than 300+ results. I never felt great about this pick because Heath seems to have lost it even if I really liked the Terry and Nelson adds.
McNeese State
While I ranked McNeese higher than most, their early neutral-court loss to South Dakota State this early makes a high ranking in metrics unlikely. Sincere Parker coming off the bench further limits their ceiling. It’s not that I wouldn’t expect a loss or two like this, but to get it this early it seems like there will be more which they couldn’t have.
William & Mary
Losing by 12 points on the road to Radford wasn’t the start I anticipated, and I’ll be watching to see if they can recover. Perhaps the Brian Earl system will take a little longer to incorporate.
Conclusion
In summary, many of my predictions have gotten off to strong starts, with promising results for players like Lynn Kidd, and Tyler Bilodeau, as well as teams like UCF and Vanderbilt. While a few calls—such as Ole Miss —have shown some early issues, overall, I’m pleased with how these early insights are aligning with my preseason evaluations.
