I follow the data wherever it goes, but I’m generally not a fan of overreacting to a couple of games in the first week or two of the season. It takes time for a real picture to emerge, and I’ve found that about seven games—or roughly 200 minutes for starting players—is when things start to settle into something meaningful, assuming a team schedules a reasonable non-conference strength of schedule.
Right now, most teams are three to four games into the season, which equates to roughly 13 percent of the regular season for 4 games. We’ve seen some intriguing ranked matchups, but it’s still too soon to make dramatic changes to preseason predictions. However, it’s the perfect time to take our first look at re-rankings and see how early results align—or clash—with our preseason expectations.
Let’s dive in to the teams who are on track to secure the 36 at large bids as of today.
