Inspired by anESPN article , but ranked with objective metrics strictly on statistical value
In college basketball, comparing players across eras is a daunting task. Unlike the NBA, where advanced tools allow for robust comparisons dating back decades, college basketball’s analytics are limited to the past 20 years or so. Varying strengths of schedule (SOS) make comparisons even trickier when there are 300 plus teams instead of 30.
To assess the top freshman seasons over the past 25 years, I’ve applied ADJeff. This metric adjusts for SOS and incorporates advanced statistics to provide a clear picture of a player’s value in a given season vs the level of competition they played. The goal is to take performances like Cooper Flagg’s hyped 2024-25 campaign and contextualize them alongside some of the best freshmen ever.
Here are the top freshman seasons from ESPN based on ADJeff rankings and the standard he will need to achieve to join them:
For Flagg to approach Zion’s level, he would need to elevate his game significantly, particularly against high-level competition, which he has yet to face. For perspective, his 26.7 PER and 70 defensive rating against the 291st SOS result in a 1.1 ADJeff. Certainly he will have chances vs better teams coming up, but the SOS likely won’t exceed a top 25 one which already puts him behind. As shown, the majority of elite freshmen, especially those playing in the post, had 30+ PERs or achieved their numbers against top-5 SOS opponents—or both like like a few. Benchmarks Flagg is unlikely to approach, in our opinion. Early indications suggest he’s not generating enough value against weaker teams to close that gap, and the ACC isn’t as competitive as it once was to help him make it up.
Final Thoughts
ADJeff provides an objective lens to measure greatness. Cooper Flagg might be the most hyped freshman in college basketball since Anthony Davis, but as this list demonstrates, hype alone doesn’t guarantee a place among the best. His journey to earning a spot in the upper echelon of freshman performances is just beginning.
For now, the bar remains set by players like Zion Williamson—those who redefined what it means to dominate as a college freshman. Statistically, no one else comes close, and only Zach Edey’s performance last season even enters the conversation in general.
It’s also worth noting that many of the standout freshman seasons occurred during a different era, before the current “super senior” NIL environment. The introduction of free transfers and NIL deals has consolidated talent within top leagues and allowed players to stay in college longer, creating a tougher landscape for freshmen to thrive at the same historic levels.
