Rice has gotten to the point where he doesn’t really have bad seasons. I wouldn’t expect much drop-off this year, even with roster turnover. Meadow and Buchanan return to provide star power and continuity. They’ll likely build well enough around them. With the overall drop in talent across college basketball due to the loss of super seniors, staying steady feels about right—even with losses.
Memphis rated much worse in computer rankings last year than their NCAA seeding/reputation suggested. I think the computers were right, and they’re in a similar spot again. That hinges on Dainja getting a waiver—without him, the roster looks more questionable. Penny is still not a coach I trust, and the program often feels chaotic and underachieving in AAC play. Everything went right out-of-conference last year—I don’t expect that again.
I doubted a Bennett team once and got burned. This one doesn’t look as strong as the last two years, but they rarely fall off. Wessels has another gear, and if this is the year he’s allowed to show it, that could make up the difference. Depth is a concern, but they always seem to find contributors.
The program has been a model of consistency since Kyle Smith and Todd Golden, with seven straight top-100 seasons. Golden’s assistant Gerlufsen has carried that forward into year four and could be in line for a Power Five job—if he wants one. Surprised he hasn’t already had options.
Hodgson did an excellent job at Arkansas State, leading them to a top-85 season. He brings two core players from that team for continuity, adds Collins—who was very efficient in the SEC—and brings in one of the best players from D2. Also, a strong freshman from last year’s USF team returns. It’s a smooth transition. USF is quietly one of the richest mid-majors despite a limited basketball history.
