Rutgers Hoops 2024-25: A Vacuum in the Post

Rutgers is an interesting team in that they signed the consensus number 2 and 3 ranked prospects. Recently, I’ve seen Rutgers basketball ranked as highly as 23rd for the upcoming season in one of the earlier rankings. I’m sure this will be the first of many top 25 preseason rankings. I understand the thought process; I simply disagree with it to be relying on 18-year-olds versus 23-year-olds in the super senior era. Rutgers didn’t make our initial top 75, (they have one scholarship to give). However, I do feel like Ace Bailey can ascend to be one of the top players in the nation, but the supporting cast does not seem to be there, particularly in the post.

Perhaps I’ll be wrong but Per KenPom, only five of the top 100 players in offensive rating last season were true freshmen. In the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons, that number was 14. Last season, there were only two freshmen in the top 100. Playing time has remained roughly the same since 2020, though in 2019 nine freshmen ranked in KenPom’s top 100 players in percentage of minutes played — this season, there are two.

Ace Bailey

There is that evidence as well as the fact that many of the players you would expect to excel as freshmen simply haven’t in the last three years. With that said, Ace Bailey’s statistical profile jumps off the page, averaging 32.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.4 blocks per contest. Doing the research to try to find out the level of competition, I’ve found that these stats did come against elite high school teams for the most part. It wasn’t just busting up some farm boys in Georgia. He played a national schedule, so I do think there is potential for Bailey to be one of the best players in the nation given this evidence. The statistical profile is that good.

Unfortunately, we do not have shooting stats, which in 2024 is outrageous for a McDonald’s All-American playing on a top 15 high school team. Usually, when this is the case, it sets off my spidey senses that perhaps they don’t want you to see the shooting stats (Thompson twins…), but someone did post that he shot 53.5 percent from the field, 42.9 percent from 3-point range, and 89.7 percent from the free throw line on January 10th. If that’s true, then that would be incredible. There is, however, a lack of information without the three-point volume.

Bailey is also very young for his class, not turning 18 until August, and he is a thin 6-8. But let’s assume he transitions to high-level D1 and has a Brandon Miller-like impact in year one. That seems possible, but even if that were the case, the rest of this team has major question marks, particularly in the post.

Supporting Cast

Dylan Harper averaged 22.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.4 steals per game in high school, but yet again, we have no shooting stats for a McDonald’s All-American. It’s really frustrating that 400-per-1A high schools all over the nation have all the stats available for their shabby teams, and we can’t get shooting stats on 2 of the top 3 players. I don’t really know what to expect from Harper. Looking at the highlights, he looks like everyone does on highlights—good. I can only assume that he will probably have a similar impact to many of the other top freshmen in the super senior era: hit or miss, but mostly miss. I don’t think you have two superstars here. I think you’ll be lucky if you get one, and Bailey is the one I would put my money on being that one.

Team Structure

The roster build is really the biggest issue. I do like Jeremiah Williams; he’s a very good player who performed admirably in the Big Ten last season. He ranks as the 102nd best player returning in the nation in our model. If Bailey can be what people expect, that’s a great start. However, he’s not really a great PG. He averaged 2.8 assists per game and 1.8 turnovers per game, and according to KenPom data, only played 81 possessions at PG last year. To get Williams on the court with Bailey and Harper, he will have to play PG, or Bailey will have to play PF at 200 lbs. Williams did play PG at Temple, but the team was not that successful, and it was against lower competition.

Post

Even if Williams, Bailey, and Harper are everything you expect and the three perimeter starters, it still seems to fall apart in the post with the transfer of Clifford Omoruyi. Even with Omoruyi last year, Rutgers was 15-17 (7-13). Now the most experienced post player is Zach Martini, a 6’7″, 235 lb transfer from Princeton who averaged 8.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, with a 12.8 PER and a 107 defensive rating in 30 minutes a game. He does shoot the three well, but 3.3 rebounds in 30 minutes in the Ivy league? The only other post players on the roster are incoming freshmen ranked 100+, which, as we’ve detailed above, likely will not be positive winning players. It’s certainly hard to count on that.

Overall, I don’t see how this team is good defensively with this talent, depending on freshmen. The one most likely to start averaged about 10ppg and 6rpg in AAU on 48% FG which is the only stats I can find for him. Defense is how they have won in recent years too, infact there is no team with as much disparity on offense and defense. (346th offensive rating, 25th defensive rating). I don’t think good coaching can completely mask the talent.

Acuff and Derkack

yson Acuff and Jordan Derkack are ranked highly by some in the portal. The counting stats look great (Acuff: 21.7 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 2.8 Ast; Derkack: 17.0 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 3.9 Ast), but neither was efficient or shoots the three well. Both are 6’4″ type guards, which limits their playing time if Williams, Bailey, and Harper are what everyone expects of them. It will give Rutgers some high-level depth, but both shoot under 30% from three and need to be on the ball to succeed. I don’t think you take the ball out of Bailey or Williams hands to give it to either, and playing off the ball I they will be less valuable.

You could perhaps push Bailey who is listed at 6-8, 210 to PF or even center and try to outscore teams. He looked thinner than that in the highlights I watched though and didn’t seem to have a massive wingspan. However, most likely, one of Acuff, Derkack, or Harper will end up playing limited minutes, and I doubt it will be Harper, as there were probably promises made to him even if Acuff were to outplay him. PJ Hayes , a 6’6″, 215 lb wing, will likely deserve some playing time as well after averaging 10.5 Pts and 3.1 Reb at San Diego, shooting 39.7% from three on 2.3 makes a game. Maybe he can be an undersized 4 at times himself.

Conclusion

I don’t understand the rotations or thought process at all in how this roster is constructed. There is certainly talent, and maybe you just take the talent and try to figure it out later. It seems like that’s what has been done here. If Bailey and Harper are what you expect, they will be 30-minute players. Even if they aren’t, I expect they will be given those minutes because you’ll never get another McDonald’s All-American if they are sitting on the bench on a team like this. I would imagine there is an understanding about playing time.

So, Williams at PG seems to have earned 25+ minutes. Even if you push Bailey up the lineup to PF or even some center, it’s hard to see how this team defends well enough. The post rotation doesn’t seem nearly good enough to be top 25, regardless of how good Bailey and Harper are.

A team that has been one of the worst offenses in the nation (346th in Ortg) and one of the best defenses (25th in Drtg) is suddenly going to double down on going small, trying to get their best players on the court, and outscore people? I don’t see this working, even assuming both freshmen are two of the best players in the country, which I would only project Bailey as the more likely to be.

Rutgers does have one open scholarship, but the transfer market is really picked over at this point. With the exception of landing someone like Coleman Hawkins, I can’t see it making much of a difference. However, they really need an experienced center more than almost any team I can think of.