| Illinois | Brad Underwood’s reloaded roster seems underwhelming, and the late loss of Coleman Hawkins will have an impact. However, Underwood is still a good coach, so you can’t completely count them out for that reason. Tre White is projected as the best player, but losing seems to follow him. Kasparas Jakucionis and Tomislav Ivišić are intriguing international wildcard additions, but given last season’s international flop rate, we need to be measured in our expectations. |
| Indiana | Indiana’s talent is impressive on paper, but questions about coaching, fit, and shooting arise. If this were just a collection of top-five individual talents, it would rank in the top 5 to 10. However, issues with fit and shooting persist, and coaching under Mike Woodson has consistently underachieved expectations each season thus far. Oumar Ballo is a standout addition who should help anchor a top defense, as he did with a 23rd-ranked defensive rating at Arizona. That’s where the improvement should come from. |
| Iowa | Fran McCaffery returns Payton Sandfort, but defense remains a concern (29th in offensive rating, 315th in defensive rating). The loss of Tony Perkins is significant, but the offensive talent and system are in place to compete for the Big Ten title if they can improve defensively. The Big Ten is as wide open as it has been, with no teams projected in our top 20. This gives Iowa a chance, with one of the best players, a clear identity, and some continuity. Owen Freeman, who should play more minutes this season, will bolster both defense and offense. His defensive rating was 103, significantly better than the team average of 108. Increasing his playing time from 22.9 minutes to 32.9 minutes per game would make a substantial impact. |
| Maryland | A very disappointing season last year, but Julian Reese could lead a rebound. Maryland played better later in the year and Ja’Kobi Gillespie is a nice add to help offset the loss of Jahmir Young. Derik Queen is a highly ranked recruit, but I’m not sure how he fits with Reese at center or if they will even be able to play together. After returning 3 of their top 4 players last year including the two stars and dropping from 26th to 62nd I’m more skeptical of Kevin Willard and the returners. |
| Michigan | Michigan’s acquisition of Vladislav Goldin significantly boosts their roster. Goldin, a top statistical performer, will be crucial to Michigan’s turnaround. With his presence, Michigan has the potential to be a formidable contender. Goldin will set the tone for Coach May’s system, bringing both familiarity and a strong foundation to build upon. |
| Michigan State | Tom Izzo returns Jaden Akins, but not much else, leaving Michigan State as a bubble team with their 26-year NCAA tournament streak in jeopardy. If they do make it, it will likely be as a low 9th to 11th seed. A.J. Hoggard‘s decision to take his talents to Vanderbilt is a significant blow that Spartan fans aren’t accustomed to. While some reports suggest the departure was mutual and welcomed by fans, this seems like a mistake in our opinion, as Hoggard’s experience and playmaking will be sorely missed. |
| Minnesota | Minnesota exceeded expectations last year and returns Dawson Garcia, providing a strong foundation to build on. The talent is improving, and there’s a lot to like about this roster. With an All-Big Ten player like Garcia and four proven guards, Minnesota has a real chance to compete. However, despite the promising lineup, I still trust other coaches in the league more at this point. |
| Nebraska | Nebraska benefits from continuity and talent but will miss Tominaga’s shooting. Brice Williams faces more responsibility with Rienk Mast redshirting to have elective surgery. Fred Hoiberg seems to have found something however and I would expect a solid season. |
| Northwestern | Collins’ coaching shines as Northwestern exceeds expectations. The return of key players like Brooks Barnhizer provides stability, and with Collins at the helm, Northwestern has the potential to compete at a high level despite the loss of Boo Buie. |
| Ohio State | Ohio State has talent, but questions linger about Diebler’s coaching. I think many assistants would have been able to rally the same team to an 8-3 finish after an emotionally charged firing. Bruce Thornton is a big time player and depth and talent should provide a solid foundation. Sean Stewart is one of the highest upside sleepers this season. |
| Oregon | Oregon’s prospects were dampened by N’Faly Dante’s absence for a large part of last season to injury, and the NCAA waiver denial, but they remain competitive with solid talent, though lacking the same star power. Center remains productive with Nathan Bittle as a quality replacement. |
| Penn State | Ace Baldwin returns, giving them a chance. Many last place teams in a 18 deep league can’t boast a player of that level. Depth may limit their ceiling if they try to go 10 deep like Mike Rhoades normally likes to play. More talent recruitment is needed. |
| Purdue | Purdue faces replacing Zach Edey, where there is no replacing a 9.2 ADJeff season if you are familiar with our model. It’s one of the two greatest modern seasons in college basketball history. Painter’s coaching and team culture are assets you have to give the benefit of doubt too, at least keeping them in the mix. Braden Smith is also underrated nationally ranked 30th returning in our model. Skeptics could argue he will not get the same easy shots or assist without Edey however and there is some truth in that. With Painter, they have top-25 potential, internal improvement is key in this rebuild. It’s a little surprising they didn’t take one or two transfers, but they haven’t dropped below 25th place finish in almost a decade. |
| Rutgers | Rutgers faces a glaring lack of post presence. When your most proven big man is a 6’7″, 235-pound player who averaged 8 points and 3 rebounds in 30 minutes in the Ivy League, that’s a red flag. Sure, they added some elite freshmen, but in the super senior era, it’s 18-year-olds going up against 23-year-olds. With a team that’s entirely defensive-minded (25th in defensive rating vs. 346th in offensive rating last year) and no true center, plus relying on two freshmen, there are significant concerns. The transfer additions also bring shooting issues, which will make it tough to develop a competent offense. If there’s any freshman I’d bet on becoming a star, it’s Ace Bailey, but even if he averages 17 points and 10 rebounds per game, Rutgers will likely find themselves near the bottom of the conference. We detail their entire team in depth here. |
| UCLA | UCLA bolstered their roster through notable additions in the portal after securing the NIL money that Coach Cronin had publicly complained about lacking. However, there’s still no excuse for last year’s team being so young. Plenty of mid-majors, like McNeese State, managed to find quality players in the portal without significant NIL funding and still performed better than UCLA. Tyler Bilodeau is expected to lead, but the transition to the Big Ten, with the added challenge of extensive travel, remains a wildcard that could impact the team’s success. |
| USC | Eric Musselman, ranked as our top hire of the offseason, and added Desmond Claude and Chibuzo Agbo. This is a team that should get to the NCAA, but that I wouldn’t expect to be a high seed. It’s very bubbly first four type of season. This version is more like a mid-major all star team, but there are so many options that were high usage stars that a few of them should hit. |
| Washington | Sprinkle’s success in rebuilding programs positions Washington for significant improvement. With key player Great Osobor coming along from his previous rebuilds, and the addition of DJ Davis, Washington should find themselves in the NCAA tournament bubble mix in year one under his leadership. They have a Rice transfer, always bet on those doing well while moving up. |
| Wisconsin | Wisconsin had a season of two halves last year—everything went downhill as soon as February hit, and to make matters worse, they lost their leading scorer to the portal. Still, they return Steven Crowl., one of the best players in the country. His counting stats might not pop, but with a 123 offensive rating while logging 29 minutes a game on the 17th-best team in the country, he’s a quiet force. Wisconsin’s floor remains solid, and their grind-it-out style is something I wouldn’t bet against. The talent level remains pretty solid too—just don’t expect any fireworks. |
