NBA

TRN’s 2023 NBA MVP & Awards

by
Staff
April 2, 2023

We only have a week left in the NBA regular season so it’s awards time. These awards are really close. Here are the key numbers by sports reference.

Top Candidates Table
Rk	Player	Team	W	L	G	MP	eFG%	FTA	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PTS	Prob%
1	Nikola Joki?	DEN	51	26	67	33.9	.663	6.1	.823	11.9	9.9	1.2	0.7	3.5	24.9	64.3%
2	Joel Embiid	PHI	51	26	63	34.7	.569	11.9	.857	10.2	4.1	1.0	1.7	3.5	33.0	11.7%
3	Giannis Antetokounmpo	MIL	55	22	61	32.1	.569	12.2	.648	11.8	5.6	0.8	0.8	3.8	31.1	7.5%
4	James Harden	PHI	51	26	55	37.0	.537	6.5	.865	6.2	10.9	1.3	0.5	3.4	21.3	3.8%
5	Jayson Tatum	BOS	54	24	72	37.2	.545	8.4	.857	8.9	4.6	1.0	0.7	2.9	30.3	3.6%
6	Domantas Sabonis	SAC	47	30	75	34.8	.628	5.5	.754	12.4	7.2	0.8	0.5	2.9	19.1	3.1%
7	Luka Don?i?	DAL	37	41	63	36.4	.563	10.7	.741	8.7	8.1	1.4	0.5	3.7	32.9	2.9%
8	Jimmy Butler	MIA	41	37	62	33.4	.554	8.7	.851	5.9	5.3	1.8	0.3	1.6	22.8	1.2%
9	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	OKC	38	40	65	35.5	.531	10.8	.906	4.8	5.4	1.7	1.0	2.9	31.4	1.0%
10	Damian Lillard	POR	32	45	58	36.3	.564	9.6	.914	4.8	7.3	0.9	0.3	3.3	32.2	0.8%

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/2/2023.

There are a few things at play here. It’s been over 3 decades since a player has won three in a row. Giving the award to Nikola Jokic would be historic. For me that shouldn’t matter or be a consideration, but for some, I’m sure it will be hard to give it to Jokic when players like Michael Jordan or LeBron James never won three in a row. There has always been some level of voter fatigue.

You also have the fact that Joel Embiid is very deserving and has been in the mix for multiple years now but has never won one. For me it’s really just a two man race. Giannis Antetokounmpo has played fewer games and hasn’t been at the same level.

Advanced Table
Rk	Player	Tm	G	PER ?	TS%	USG%	WS	WS/48	BPM	VORP
1	Nikola Joki?	DEN	67	31.9	.704	27.2	15.0	.318	13.3	8.8
2	Joel Embiid	PHI	63	31.3	.653	37.2	11.7	.258	8.9	6.0
3	Luka Don?i?	DAL	63	29.2	.612	38.0	10.1	.211	9.3	6.5
4	Giannis Antetokounmpo	MIL	61	29.0	.604	38.7	8.4	.206	8.5	5.2
5	Anthony Davis	LAL	51	27.9	.631	28.8	8.1	.226	6.4	3.7
6	Jimmy Butler	MIA	62	27.4	.643	25.7	11.7	.271	8.4	5.5
7	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	OKC	65	27.3	.625	32.9	10.8	.225	7.2	5.3
8	Damian Lillard	POR	58	26.9	.645	33.9	9.3	.212	7.1	4.9
9	Kevin Durant	TOT	44	26.3	.678	31.0	6.4	.198	7.3	3.7
10	Stephen Curry	GSW	52	24.3	.661	31.0	7.2	.191	7.7	4.4
11	Kawhi Leonard	LAC	49	24.1	.624	27.0	6.7	.197	6.3	3.4
12	LeBron James	LAL	50	23.9	.581	33.2	5.2	.139	6.0	3.6
13	Jayson Tatum	BOS	72	23.8	.609	32.7	10.4	.186	5.6	5.1
14	Tyrese Haliburton	IND	56	23.6	.624	23.8	7.7	.196	7.2	4.4
15	Ja Morant	MEM	58	23.6	.556	35.4	5.9	.152	5.9	3.7
16	Domantas Sabonis	SAC	75	23.3	.666	21.4	12.0	.221	5.7	5.1
17	Kristaps Porzi??is	WAS	65	23.2	.627	27.5	7.8	.177	4.3	3.4
18	Donovan Mitchell	CLE	66	22.7	.610	32.0	8.5	.173	6.1	4.8
19	Devin Booker	PHO	50	22.3	.602	32.1	5.8	.160	4.5	2.8
20	Clint Capela	ATL	61	22.3	.652	15.8	6.8	.202	2.2	1.7
21	Kyrie Irving	TOT	58	22.3	.611	28.9	7.1	.157	3.9	3.2
22	Lauri Markkanen	UTA	65	22.2	.643	26.5	8.2	.176	3.8	3.3
23	James Harden	PHI	55	22.0	.610	25.2	8.3	.195	5.6	4.0
24	Trae Young	ATL	70	22.0	.572	32.9	6.2	.124	3.3	3.2
25	De’Aaron Fox	SAC	69	21.8	.604	29.9	7.2	.148	2.5	2.6

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/2/2023.

This is really just a two-horse race in my opinion, and Jokic has the better statistics. He’s played more games and made more of an impact by most key metrics. Embiid is so close though you really hate to see him lose the race or never get an MVP award. They are both have incredible individual years. Jokic is one-tenth of an assist from averaging a triple-double and Embiid is leading the league in scoring as a center.

What inevitably will be brought up is defense. While Embiid I believe Jokic is an underrated defender. He has a 110 Defensive Rating and a +26 net rating. Embiid has a 109 Defensive rating and a 15 net rating. By ESPN’s Real Plus Minus however Embiid is significantly ahead 10.35 vs 7.85. By FiveThrityEight’s Raptor, Jokic is significantly ahead. You can find advanced stats that like both.

As much as it probably shouldn’t matter when it’s this close I’d probably give it to the player that does haven’t one. Over time that’s pretty much how this has worked. It’s not the award for the best player in the league or Jordan and LeBron would have far more MVP’s. Even though he sat in the last game vs Denver which was annoying I’d give it to Embiid.

MVP: Joel Embiid

1st Team All-NBA
Joel Embiid
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Jayson Tatum
Luka Don?i?
James Harden

2nd Team All-NBA
Nikola Joki?
Domantas Sabonis
Jimmy Butler
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Damian Lillard

3rd Team All-NBA
Anthony Davis
LeBron James
Kawhi Leonard
Donovan Mitchell
De?Aaron Fox

There is probably a little cheating having Sabonis at PF and not Center. Both he and Anthony Davis should be on an All NBA team though and that’s how they both get on. Mitchell and Fox have played far more games than Ja Morant and Stephen Curry. That was the deciding factor

Defensive Player of the Year: Jaren Jackson Jr

He has the best defensive rating in the NBA by a significant margin (3 points), and Memphis is the top defense. He’s also averaging 3.1 blocks and 1.1 steals per game in only 28 minutes.

Rookie of the Year: Walker Kessler

Paolo Banchero will win the award putting the counting stats up he has, but Walker Kessler has has the best rookie season. If I had a vote I would vote for him. He leads the class with 7 win shares and a 2.1 VORP. It’s really not even close.

60 Selections Table
			Roun	Tota	Shoo	Shoo	Shoo	Per	Per	Per	Per	Adva	Adva	Adva	Adva
Rk	Pk	Tm	Player	G	FG%	3P%	FT%	MP	PTS	TRB	AST	WS ?	WS/48	BPM	VORP
1	22	MEM	Walker Kessler	73	.721	.500	.522	23.0	9.2	8.4	0.9	7.0	.201	3.0	2.1
2	12	OKC	Jalen Williams	72	.525	.354	.807	30.3	14.1	4.6	3.3	5.6	.123	0.4	1.3
3	13	CHO	Jalen Duren	62	.641	.000	.601	24.5	8.9	8.7	1.2	4.2	.134	-0.6	0.5
4	4	SAC	Keegan Murray	75	.448	.409	.756	29.6	12.0	4.6	1.2	3.9	.083	-0.7	0.7
5	15	CHO	Mark Williams	40	.635		.682	18.6	8.5	6.7	0.5	2.5	.158	0.0	0.4
6	1	ORL	Paolo Banchero	70	.427	.292	.747	33.8	20.0	6.8	3.7	2.4	.050	-1.4	0.4
7	17	HOU	Tari Eason	78	.451	.348	.750	21.3	9.2	6.0	1.0	2.4	.070	-1.7	0.1
8	16	ATL	AJ Griffin	68	.467	.387	.905	19.3	8.8	2.1	1.0	2.1	.076	-0.6	0.5