With Dan Hurley being pursued by the Lakers, it prompted me to consider what might have happened if Rick Pitino had never left Kentucky. By my calculations, he likely would have had a chance to achieve 1,200+ wins and become the all-time winningest coach. This assumes he managed to avoid significant rule violations and NCAA probation, though most people still recognize his accomplishments regardless. As Rick Pitino nears the end of his coaching career, having led ten different college and professional teams, one must wonder what stability could have done for his legacy.
College Coaches to the NBA
I hope Hurley doesn’t transition to the NBA. While I understand the allure of coaching professional athletes and escaping the burdens of recruiting, no college coach has significantly enhanced their legacy by moving to the NBA. Larry Brown and Quin Snyder are perhaps the best examples, yet even they are somewhat equivocal. Brown, for instance, might have been just as notable, if not more so, had he remained in college. Most coaches, like Pitino or Calipari, seem to diminish their legacies and lose valuable years that could have been spent building their coaching resumes. The prospect Hurley would be forgoing—attempting a three-peat—is a monumental achievement. Similarly, Pitino likely walked away from a championship with the team he had built.
Ultimately, the financial incentives are substantial. Coaches can secure lucrative contracts, face the possibility of being fired within a few years, receive massive buyouts, and then return to college basketball to secure top positions. Billy Donovan, for instance, could have likely pursued the Kentucky job had he taken it seriously and gotten it. While transitioning to the NBA may not harm career prospects, it can potentially impact a coach’s legacy.
11 Years
Rick Pitino got his first head coaching job at Boston University at the age of 25 in 1978. If anyone could set the record for most wins, it would be a coach who starts at that age and coaches into their 70s, like Coach K or Jim Boeheim, Pitino’s mentor. Interestingly, Pitino was an interim coach at Hawaii for six games at the age of 23. Despite starting early, Pitino was out of college basketball for 11 years during his career. On average, Pitino has achieved 25 wins per year. This would equate to 1,129 wins if he maintained this average continuously.
Had he stayed at Kentucky the entire time and never left, it’s possible he could have achieved even more. His tenures at Louisville and later Iona involved rebuilding programs, which likely impacted his win totals. At Kentucky, he might have recruited slightly better talent and won more games, although his NBA experience with the Celtics might have also enhanced his recruiting at Louisville. However, his time with the New York Knicks, both as an assistant (two years) and head coach (two years), likely contributed to his subsequent college opportunities at Providence and then Kentucky.
Let’s say he lost 7 years from college basketball, and assuming an average of 27 wins per year during those years, Pitino could have added approximately 189 wins. The Kentucky team he built won the title the year after he left for the Celtics, suggesting he could have claimed another championship had he stayed. Additionally, he likely would have won more games in the late ’90s had he remained at Kentucky than his average you would expect and never has to get a program rebuilt and started like at Louisville.
Conclusion
If Pitino had never left Kentucky, it’s plausible he could have achieved 1,050 to 1,100 wins by now, along with 3 or 4 national titles. This would place him in the same territory as Mike Krzyzewski, at 71 years old, with several years of coaching potentially remaining. His tenure with the Celtics cost him a lot in terms of legacy, and the same could very well happen to Dan Hurley.
Even if you win championships in the NBA, coaches typically don’t get much credit; that is usually given to the star players. Acquiring star players is largely out of a coach’s control, and if a star player has a falling out with the coach, the player usually prevails, often resulting in the coach losing their job. In the NBA, there just isn’t as much control or ability to build a legacy without some luck in the draft or a general manager building a great team. The general manager often receives much of the credit for assembling the team, leaving the coach at the whim of the organization’s direction. Pitino has even said he wishes he never left, let it be a lesson.
