Alternate History

What If: Jalen Brunson and the Mavs

by
Staff
June 19, 2024

The Dallas Mavericks’ journey to the NBA Finals ended in a decisive defeat, raising questions about how different the outcome might have been if they had never let Jalen Brunson walk. Brunson’s departure to the New York Knicks left a significant void in the Mavericks’ lineup. While the Mavericks have managed to mostly overcome the loss, it has come at the price of investing heavily the draft resources they could have used to improve the team in other ways just to get back to within sight of what they lost. Brunson has perform exceptionally with the Knicks, particularly in the playoffs, highlighting what the Mavericks missed in their pursuit of the championship. Let’s analyze how this team could have looked differently.

Timeline of Events: Jalen Brunson Contract Situation

During the 2021-2022 NBA playoffs, Jalen Brunson played a crucial role for the Dallas Mavericks as they advanced to the Western Conference Finals. His standout performance came in the first round against the Utah Jazz, where Brunson scored 41 points on 25 shots and added 8 rebounds and 5 assist to lead the Mavericks to victory without Luka Dončić, who was sidelined due to injury for three games in that series.

Brunson averaged 22.2 PPG on 50/36/82 shooting (57.4 TS%) and 7.2 assists with only 2 turnovers in 20 games without Dončić that season. In the playoffs, he maintained his high level of play, averaging 21.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 3.7 APG with a 20.1 PER across 18 games mostly with him, contributing significantly to the Mavericks’ journey to the Western Conference Finals. His performance underscored his abilities, yet the Mavericks still opted not to even seriously try to match the offer of 25 million a year from the Knicks, leading to his departure without compensation. They didn’t see him as worth what is now one of the best contracts in the league.

Here is a brief timeline if you aren’t familiar.

2018: Both Luka Doncic (3rd) and Jalen Brunson (33rd) were drafted. Perhaps the greatest modern draft year by any team ever if both end up being hall of famers. (The Celtics drafted 3 hall of famers in one year in the 50’s but that was a different league with 8 teams drafting)

2021-2022: Breakout Season and Contract Uncertainty

Summer 2021: The Mavericks have the opportunity to extend Brunson’s contract for four years at $55.5 million but decide to wait.
2021-2022 Season: Brunson has a breakout season, averaging career-highs in points, assists, and rebounds. His performance in the playoffs, especially in the absence of Luka Dončić, significantly increases his market value.

2022: Contract Negotiations and Free Agency

February 2022: Reports indicate the Mavericks are still considering offering Brunson a four-year, $55.5 million extension, but no formal offer is made at this time.
April-May 2022 (Playoffs): Brunson excels in the playoffs, further boosting his value as he helps the Mavericks reach the Western Conference Finals.
June 2022: The Mavericks finally offer Brunson the four-year, $55.5 million extension, but by this point, Brunson’s market value has significantly increased.
Late June 2022: Brunson becomes an unrestricted free agent, attracting interest from multiple teams, with the New York Knicks emerging as the frontrunner.

July 2022: Departure to the New York Knicks

Early July 2022: The New York Knicks offer Brunson a four-year, $104 million contract.
July 12, 2022: Jalen Brunson officially signs with the New York Knicks, leaving the Mavericks without compensation.

The Addition of Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving is undoubtedly a great player, and adding him salvaged the situation. However, he’s also over four years older than Jalen Brunson and comes at a significantly higher cost. Irving’s contract is $11 million more per year than what the Knicks offered Brunson and a staggering $23 million more per year than what Brunson would have signed for had the Mavericks extended his contract early. Additionally, acquiring Irving required giving up quality players and valuable draft picks that could have been used to improve (including Dorian Finney-Smith and a 2029 1st among others). Kyrie’s availability was partly luck as well, largely due to his diminished value following a series of controversial statements. While Irving has managed to stay out of trouble in Dallas so far, his history as a mercurial public figure means that the potential for future controversy always looms.

How It Could have Looked

Per Game Table
Season	Age	Tm	G	MP	TRB	AST	TOV	PTS	Awards
2018-19	22	DAL	73	21.8	2.3	3.2	1.2	9.3
2019-20	23	DAL	57	17.9	2.4	3.3	1.2	8.2
2020-21	24	DAL	68	25.0	3.4	3.5	1.2	12.6	6MOY-4
2021-22	25	DAL	79	31.9	3.9	4.8	1.6	16.3	MIP-11
2022-23	26	NYK	68	35.0	3.5	6.2	2.1	24.0	MVP-12,CPOY-4,MIP-3
2023-24	27	NYK	77	35.4	3.6	6.7	2.4	28.7	MVP-5,NBA2,AS,MIP-5,CPOY-5

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/19/2024.

Advanced Table
Season	Age	Tm	PER	TS%	WS	BPM	VORP
2018-19	22	DAL	12.7	.549	2.6	-1.7	0.1
2019-20	23	DAL	14.9	.553	2.1	-0.9	0.3
2020-21	24	DAL	17.1	.618	5.1	0.9	1.2
2021-22	25	DAL	17.1	.583	7.5	0.9	1.9
2022-23	26	NYK	21.2	.597	8.7	3.9	3.5
2023-24	27	NYK	23.4	.592	11.2	5.8	5.4
Career			18.6	.588	37.2	2.1	12.4

4 seasons		DAL	15.8	.580	17.3	0.0	3.5
2 seasons		NYK	22.4	.594	19.9	4.9	8.9

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/19/2024.

Jalen Brunson has undoubtedly improved since joining the New York Knicks, but there were clear signs of his potential while with the Mavericks. However, it’s doubtful he would have had the same opportunity to shine in Dallas as he has in New York, where he averaged 32.4 PPG and 7.5 APG in the playoffs. In our statistical model Brunson was the 13th best player and Kyrie the 21st.

In an alternate history where the Mavericks retained Brunson, they likely wouldn’t have bottomed out in the 2022-23 season or drafted Dereck Lively II. They could have traded down to offload Davis Bertans’ contract. If they really wanted Lively or to make these moves, they would have had the resources to do so with what they gave up for Kyrie Irving. The financial difference wouldn’t have mattered. They could theoretically have acquired Kyrie as well, though it’s unlikely they would have pursued him and instead might have addressed other areas of weakness.

The Team

Let’s assume that while they could have traded for Dereck Lively II, they don’t, which seems like the more likely scenario. I do think they would have still traded for P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford. Gafford could have played more as he and Lively stifled each other this season. Grant Williams probably never signs if they have Finney-Smith, but they are able to use that salary on something else. Even if they didn’t get value, they could have used that money or Bertans’ contract to make the Gafford and Washington trade, or some form of it with Gafford. Derrick Jones Jr. was a minimum signing and came to back up Williams anyway, so they likely still have him this year. Perhaps they could have offered him more and locked him down for multiple years instead, which now they will likely lose him.

2024 Finals

Let’s say the team is built around Jalen Brunson instead of Kyrie Irving, with Finney-Smith, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, and Derrick Jones Jr. all likely still in Dallas, and without Dereck Lively II. While Lively was a good player, I believe this team could still reach the finals and have a better showing against Boston. They wouldn’t have missed the 2023 playoffs either. However, with Boston’s historically great point differentials, they would still likely win the 2024 Finals.

Conclusion

The main difference is that Dallas would have significantly more trade assets to use in improving the team either during the 2022-24 seasons or the 2024 offseason, fully aware of the challenge they need to overcome. There weren’t a lot of other big players moving that would have made sense during this period, like Kyrie, Damian Lillard, or James Harden, so it’s likely they would have kept most of their war chest untouched and waited for this offseason anyway. The Mavericks with Kyrie this offseason and not Brunson don’t have as much flexibility or many ways to get better. They will have to thread the needle perfectly, making all the right minimum and value signings and utilizing all their remaining resources effectively.

While they still might not have won the championship in 2024, in my opinion, they would have been better positioned and in a much better position to improve moving forward with a similarly-aged star in Brunson and Doncic and a lot more trade assets. If you really want to add salt to the wounds they also traded a similar age star in Kristaps Porzingis, who also helped eliminate them, for Spencer Dinwiddie. There is no doubt if they had could have worked out the personalities and retained Porzingis, Brunson, and Doncic as all 28 or under guys that this is likely win this NBA Championship this year and very likely would have been the favorite next year if not the next couple of years. Certainly would have been a top 3 contender with Denver and Boston in this era if Porzingis could stay healthy. I think they would have gotten two titles including in 2024 if you keep Porzingis out of Boston, that’s a big deal itself.