Despite the rise of NIL, some financial underdogs still thrive in the portal, and none do it better than McNeese State. There are multiple strong mid major classes, but McNeese State combines a shoestring budget, (300th nationally), with a conference near the bottom (30th), yet continue to snag top talent. They started Will Wade at $200k coaching pay and, even after a stunning 31-4 season, only bumped him to $700k, indicating some financial constraints.
With most power average conference programs having a reported $4 million in NIL this season and several likely pushing $5+ million for some (Arkansas, Kentucky, etc.), we’ve seen numbers as high as $2 million being reported for individual players. This also raises questions about how these programs are allocating their funds, possibly overpaying for players who may not be worth it—similar to overpaid players in the NBA.
Even if we don’t know the exact NIL offerings of mid and low majors, it’s clear they can’t come close to matching the power conference in NIL, making their success all the more impressive. Most head coaches at this level make between $300k to $700k, and it’s unlikely they are spending major NIL. That context is important. Additionally, the NY Times reported in October that there were only 123 NIL collectives. It’s not even clear if many schools even have NIL.
Parker’s ADJeff would’ve been higher (4.8) without the adjustment for his minutes due to an early-season foot injury, which kept him out for two months and on that minutes restriction. Despite this setback, he performed impressively upon his return. He has shown the potential to be among the best players nationwide if he can replicate his performance in those 16 games.
If you wanted a Power Conference example, likley the worst P5 program, DePaul , has a nice class with players like David Skogman, Isaiah Rivera, and N.J. Benson that I would prefer over many of the classes below.
Just a few years ago, Leonard Hamilton was a force in the ACC, finishing 1st or 2nd and reaching the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. Now, he faces the challenge of replacing a top 3 transfer this cycle in Jamir Watkins (5.1 ADJeff) with an uninspiring recruiting class of role players from the CAA and Horizon.
Tony Bennett must feel like the rug has been pulled out from under him with the rise of free transfers and NIL. He’s recruited some good transfers, but his system, particularly on defense, usually takes a couple of years to master. This is a challenge when rosters change so much from year to year now. Additionally, with the increased freedom for players to transfer, it seems harder to attract recruits to play in the nation’s slowest offense season after season.
While some others on the list may have more NIL resources than the mid-majors, they might not compare favorably to the top of the Power 5. Georgetown, however, seems to be in a strong position from an NIL perspective. Reportedly, they were among those offering Clifford Omoruyi over a million dollars. Despite this, their recruiting from the portal appears less impressive on paper than even Patrick Ewing’s last year. This is all in the context of having apparent great NIL, and I think you would expect a little more.
Malik Mack is ranked as high as the top 15 by some, but my model doesn’t see it leading a 228th ranked team vs the 181st SOS on kenpom. He’s a nice add, but I wouldn’t want to have to depend on him as a high usage player. Mack is only a freshman and battled some injuries, so there is room for improvement, but still there is a long distance from that and where he actually was. (.536 true shooting, 3.1 turnovers per game etc.) We’ve seen a more accomplished player like Jordan Dingle from the Ivy struggle some in the Big East just last year.
In relative terms, Duke’s recruiting class isn’t poor overall, but by Duke’s standards, it’s rather underwhelming, especially considering the loss of Jeremy Roach, Mark Mitchell, and other proven talent. Even their standout player, Maliq Brown, whom my model favors more than most rankings, lacks shooting ability and is a tough fit. Interestingly, Brown was teammates with Quadir Copeland, a transfer to McNeese State. Despite being on the same team, Copeland outscored Brown in fewer minutes and was a better passer. When your top transfers are at a similar level to those of a Southland program likely paying their coach about ten times less, it might indicate a flaw in your transfer recruitment strategy if you’re Duke.
These transfers aren’t bad, but considering the level UConn has been at in the sport the last two years, it’s underwhelming for them. Tarris Reed is no Donovan Clingan. Reed performed okay defensively in a backup role two seasons ago, but last year he had a 110 defensive rating while anchoring a defense that ranked 352nd in the nation in defensive rating and 182nd adjusted on kenpom. I’m sure Hurley will get the most out of him, but that’s a big trade off.
Aidan Mahaney regressed last season and, over his career at Saint Mary’s still only had a 14.8 PER with .519 true shooting. That’s not even very good in the WCC, and now he will be moving up and tasked with helping to replace the efficient production of Cam Spencer and Tristen Newton. Dan Hurley has proven to be a hall of fame great coach, but this is far more underwhelming than previous transfer hauls like Cam Spencer who had been nearly an identical statistical player in the Big Ten before he came. You are now asking an inefficient WCC player to do then things these guys did and Reed to replace Clingan. I expected more.
