Most of the positions have been filled, marking an active offseason, particularly with the openings at three of the most prominent college basketball programs: Kentucky, Ohio State, and Louisville. Below, I’ll offer my insights on recent developments.
For this year’s assessments, I’ll adopt a slightly different approach. I intend to rank coaches based on whom I would prioritize if I were an Athletic Director seeking to hire a coach – essentially, my top pick. If, for instance, you notice a hire from a mid major program ranked highly, it indicates I believe they made exceptional A+ hire in my judgement. Conversely, if you see a hire from a power conference school lower down, it suggests a less favorable view of the hiring decision.
While the school and the tools, and resources the school provides often influences success, let’s consider a scenario where we’re hiring for an average job – with middling history, resources, support, and NIL. My focus lies on identifying the coach I’d want to lead the average school for the next five years, with age being a negligible factor.
I prioritize attributes such as a head coach’s track record of success and demonstrated experience at the helm, with the higher the level or achievement being particularly valued. Even lower-level D2, JUCO, etc experience can be indicative of coaching prowess, as my research suggests it often translates effectively. I also value coaches who have proven their willingness to attack the portal aggressively. This approach represents the future, and those who do not embrace it may experience less success.
I also appreciate coaches who have succeeded across various coaching roles and levels, as well as those who’ve climbed the ladder through their coaching talent rather than relying solely on connections. The ethos of starting from the bottom and ascending through coaching talent resonates with me, signaling genuine coaching aptitude rather than mere association with renowned programs like UNC, Duke, or Kansas and getting your first job out of college sitting beside of a hall of famer where almost anyone could be “successful”.
This wasn’t the best season for Musselman (16-17, 108th), but I would look past that. Almost every coach, even the greats have the occasional bad season. He’s won big and at multiple jobs, taking Nevada to a Sweet 16 and Arkansas to two Elite 8s. He also hits the transfer portal harder than almost any coach in America.
I believe Louisville made a significant mistake in firing Mack. He essentially had one poor season, going 13-7 and ranking 59th during the COVID year. Subsequently, he was dismissed after starting 6-8 the following season. Prior to that, he led Xavier to two Sweet 16s while in the A10 and then to an Elite 8, another Sweet 16, and a #1 seed.
It appears that Calipari’s performance may have declined slightly, though some unfairly criticize him. While the loss to Saint Peter’s, a 15 seed, is notable, it’s important to recognize that the team went on to reach the Elite 8, suggesting their strength. Additionally, their defeat against a team with a player who made ten three-pointers this season can be attributed to unpredictable circumstances. Such occurrences, albeit unfortunate, have clustered closely for Calipari recently. Despite these setbacks, Calipari still has the ability to attract top-tier talent remain intact. Therefore, I believe he is an excellent choice for the next five years.
This hire is a fulfillment of my earlier prediction of Smart trying to get a D1 job when he took the Texas Tech assistant position. This is the hire I’m most enthusiastic about tracking. I’ve extensively covered Smart’s Carleton career, and for a comprehensive analysis, you can explore why I’ve ranked him highly in my article Legacy Examined: How Good Was Carleton? I make the full case. Essentially, we’ve observed him not only defeating but dominating numerous top 25 an NCAA teams despite having inferior talent. Some of his top players were former Division I athletes who averaged as little as 4 and 5 points per game at places such as Cleveland State and Loyola Marymount. His implementation of a distinctive defensive force to the weak hand strategy I believe will translate well.
Let me acknowledge that FAU is a challenging job, and taking them to the Final Four and winning 35 games is incredible. However, I can’t ignore that the season prior to that, they were 145th in the NET and only one game over .500 in D1. That was his fourth season as well. It took until year five to finally finish in the top 100. Returning everyone this season, they were disappointing, and I don’t think they even deserved to be in the tournament with losses to Bryant, FGCU, and Temple. This feels like it could have just been a perfect storm and I question what he did before. Had they lost to Memphis in round one as they nearly did he’s probably not at Michigan.
Many Kentucky fans seem disappointed with this hire, but this isn’t a Jon Scheyer situation. Pope went to Kentucky, but I appreciate that he worked his way up the coaching ladder on talent. He had two top 100 seasons at Utah Valley, and then he achieved three top 20 KenPom finishes in five years at BYU. That’s impressive, especially considering that one of those seasons came in the best conference in America this season, where they held their own. While BYU certainly has big time resources and support, Pope has done a commendable job, and I appreciate their emphasis on shooting a lot of threes and playing in a way with upside. The only criticism is the two first-round exits with top 20 type of teams in the metrics.
I’d rather have Holtmann than who Ohio State replaced him with. He’s succeeded at multiple schools, and even during his biggest setback, a 16-19 season at Ohio State, they still ranked 49th in KenPom. When you are at Ohio State you should do well, but if that’s your biggest failure and you have won at other places you are still a good coach.
Enfield had a poor season at USC and then transitioned to SMU, but overall, he’s still a good coach. He took FGCU to the Sweet 16, of course, and USC to the Elite 8 in 2021. That year, they finished 6th in KenPom. He’s also known for landing great portal players and high-level one-and-dones.
DeVries took a program that had achieved almost nothing in the previous 40 years and consistently led them to success (Top 85 the last 4 seasons). If his son hadn’t been the best player for the last two years, I would have rated him even higher than May. That’s a unique circumstance that was helpful.
Sprinkle has succeeded at multiple coaching positions, and he completely rebuilt Utah State this season, despite not having a player who scored a point the previous year. They won a game in the tournament and earned a 6-bid MWC, but their KenPom rank was only 51st. Additionally, he never cracked the top 100 at Montana State, so this seems like the right spot for him.
It took 14 seasons to reach the NCAA tournament, but they won a game this year. You can factor in that he was at some difficult places to win. He won a CIT championship at Columbia and also took Washington State to the NIT Final Four. I like that he’s had good teams at three different schools taking San Francisco to a top 70 finish as well.
I wanted to rank this hire higher, but it’s a testament to the coaches ahead of him who have done it at the D1 level, and unlike Smart there isn’t dozens of D1 exhibitions to compare. McCollum won four D2 National Titles in 5 seasons, and it would have likely been 6 if COVID didn’t cancel that tournament, as they were 31-1. He is another coach I have been waiting to see how he would do with this opportunity and will track closely.
Three years, two teams, three NCAA tournaments. That is impressive, but these were not high-ranking teams. The KenPom finishes were 245, 176, and 135. He’s still relatively unknown, but I suppose I would prioritize that at this point in the rankings over coaches who have been around for a while with inconsistent results. However, there’s also the concern that he might leave after a year or two, which isn’t ideal.
Martin is well-traveled, but he’s returning to a job where he previously had two top 75 teams. Additionally, he recruited Jaylen Brown to Cal, a significant achievement that helped propel them into the top 30. Have you seen how bad they were after? At Tennessee, he managed to elevate the team to the top 10 by his third year and guided them to the Sweet 16. While his tenure at Mizzou ended poorly, there’s more good than bad on his resume overall and multiple significant achievements.
Overall Byington has done a good job, first at a difficult place to win in Georgia Southern, and his breakout year this season at JMU where they beat Wisconsin in the NCAA’s and won 32 games. However they were only 62nd in kenpom. The level of competition wasn’t great, and overall he’s only had 2 top 100 finishes in 11 seasons as a coach.
Kelsey has coached for 12 seasons, three at the College of Charleston, and nine at Winthrop. He only has one top 100 KenPom finish, which was #71. While his records are impressive, and I appreciate his recruitment of transfers, the substance is a bit thin. Those are both jobs where coaches have won at a higher level as well. Gregg Marshall had a 51st ranked team at Winthrop for example.
Calhoun posted a strong record of 124–38 (.765) in D2 and led a team to the National title game there. It took him six seasons to figure out how to win at Youngstown State, but it’s a notoriously difficult job. I appreciate his work in the portal over the last two years.
Gray has only been a head coach for three seasons, but leading Western Carolina to a 110th finish in KenPom is impressive. I like the way he’s navigated the portal as well.
Nagy has been a head coach since 1995 and boasts a record of 577–332 (.635). He successfully transitioned South Dakota State from D2 to D1 and achieved some notable finishes, landing in the top 100 four out of his last five seasons there. However, he didn’t replicate the same level of success at Wright State, finishing in the top 100 just once in eight seasons.
Spradlin found some great talent at Morehead State in Johni Broome and Ta’Lon Cooper he just couldn’t hold on to them long enough to crack the top 100.
Diebler is the hardest hire to rank. Yes, he went 8-3 as the interim coach at Ohio State and upset Purdue, but it’s not like Ohio State was in shambles. I guess I feel like many good assistants could step into a similar situation and rally the troops when you have that much talent available. Even the Purdue game was an emotional home game after Holtman was fired. I think they probably got a bump from that and extra motivation to win for the staff. You have to give him credit for harnessing it though and finishing the way they did. If the Holtman era was so bad though, I’ve never understood hiring the guy that was riding shotgun with no experience for most of the bad years.
Some may consider this a reach, but at this point on the list, you’re looking for upside, I believe. Doty won two D3 JUCO national titles and was a runner-up for another. He also won an NAIA national title. While these are at really low levels, winning a national championship anywhere is impressive. To win three at two different levels is a good sign he can coach. He’s been at the D2 level for the last six seasons, and although it took a few years to get it going there, he also took a team to the second round two seasons ago.
Richter is a sneaky hire. He brings two seasons of experience in JUCOs, going 56–10 (.848). Additionally, he served as an assistant at Drake for the last six years. He was personally responsible for bringing three JUCO players with him and played a key role in helping Drake get off to a great start.
Ridder achieved a notable record of 95–28 (.772) in junior college, and he maintained a 96–92 (.511) record at two challenging positions in Bethune Cookman and UT Martin. UT Martin was trending in the right direction going 21-11 this season.
Plona was 225–35 (.865) in JUCO. That’s and incredible record but the wasn’t a lot of win in the postseason. In 7 NJCAA tournaments they only advanced past the 1st round twice despite having the number one ranked team on several occasions.
Nicholls State is a challenging job, and his best finish there was 193rd in KenPom, with a record of 90–61 (.596). He was there a while and started trending in the wrong direction. Spending last season at Alabama may have helped him refine his coaching skills.
Corsaro played football at Youngstown State interestingly as well as football and basketball at Indianapolis. He was the coach of the D2 school where he went 79–37 (.681).
Going 6-24 in year 5 at Siena, like he did back in 2005, and still having a head coaching career in 2024 is hard to do. That season on his record is one that stands out and would always give me pause. However, he did a very good job at SMU and didn’t deserve to be fired. He was also pretty solid at Georgia State. You can certainly debate if he ever should have had a 2 million dollar a year job at SMU to begin with. I think overall I would take the more unknown guys on the way up before I would Lanier. Having a season that bad, that deep into your career on the resume would always scare me.
All six of Christains Kent State teams were top 100 but that was a very far in the review mirrior at this point. His stints at TCU and Boston College were not good sense. Tough jobs, but TCU was in the MWC and he still couldn’t win there, not a single top 100 finish even as Jamie Dixon does in the Big 12.
