| 1 | Bobby Hurley | Arizona State | Hurley started well, making four NCAA appearances in his first eight years, but finished 127th two years ago and 84th last year. With the current roster not looking strong, this may be the end. Last year the program seemed to provide solid resources and still little traction was gained although Jayden Quaintance did miss 9 games. It wasn’t much better prior to the injury, and I expect he may return to his brother’s staff sooner rather than later. |
| 2 | George Halcovage | Buffalo | Only in his third season, but two finishes of 340+ at a program like Buffalo, which had a top-25 team in 2019, indicate underperformance given the resources. Even our #1 hot-seat coach had a top-60 season there. This is unacceptable. Halcovage is arguably the mid major equivalent of Kenny Payne; multiple coaches have proven success is possible here. Buffalo was ranked 77th in 2021 with Jim Whitesell who they fired two years later. |
| 3 | Eric Konkol | Tulsa | Only in his third year, but finishes of 316th, 184th, and 257th are not acceptable for Tulsa’s resources. He recently signed an extension, but results remain weak, and the current roster doesn’t project better than 125th. This is a program that had PJ Haggerty and Cobe Williams and still finished poorly (184th), similar to what Frank Haith was fired for (171st) in his worst season vs Konkol’s peak at Tulsa. Tulsa was 88th in budget when last reported; Konkol likely earns over $1 million or near top 100 money. He even received an extension through 2029 after the 184th ranking 2 years ago. This is baffling, both the extension and how bad he has been there. |
| 4 | Wes Miller | Cincinnati | It’s year 5 with only a peak ranking of 39th 2 years ago with zero NCAA appearances, followed by 55th last year. This season is crucial; anything short of an NCAA bid likely won’t be enough for a program that basically ran an alum like Cronin off for top 25’s but losing in the first round. |
| 5 | Matt McMahon | LSU | 88th last year was the peak. The SEC is tough, but other LSU coaches have performed better. The program rank is 37th all time. Bringing his star KJ Williams and three starters from a 31-3 Murray team that finished 20th in the AP poll and won an NCAA game, only to finish 151st at LSU, signaled a problem early on that hasn’t gotten much better. |
| 6 | Penny Hardaway | Memphis | Seven years at Memphis, only three NCAA appearances, and ranked 76th and 54th in the most recent seasons. Results remain underwhelming, and this upcoming roster appears to be the weakest on paper of his tenure to me. |
| 7 | Steve Pikiell | Rutgers | 70th with two top-five draft picks isn’t great. Harper wasn’t just potential, he also performed like a top-15 player on the court. To finish this low shows how roster was poorly constructed around them which we thought was pretty obvious in the preseason ranking them 75th while many had them top 25. This comes after finishing 100th two years ago. This isn’t the same job it was 10 years ago, Pikiell is earlying around top-35 money and Rutgers having a top-36 budget at last check, and they had the resources to land talent last year. This year’s roster may not crack the top 80. The writing may be on the wall; he seems unwilling to adapt. At minimum, recruit some shooters. |
| 8 | Hubert Davis | North Carolina | With a reported $14 million roster, one of the top five funded in the nation, the current team still seems to project toward the back end of the top 25. Another finish around 30th–35th or a first-round NCAA exit may not be sufficient. I wasn’t as low on Davis until last year and decisions, like not playing Lubin more, may have cost wins. Will Wade in leaked audio seemed to think it wasn’t the smartest move not play him more as well. |
| 9 | Jeff Capel III | Pittsburgh | In his eighth year with one NCAA appearance, earning top-20 money, and finishing 17-15 (63rd) last year. Surprising he is still there; another similar season and it will likely be the end. |
| 10 | Jake Diebler | Ohio State | I never understood this hire. Firing the previous coach midseason and promoting a staff member who benefited from 3-point variance and highly motivated players giving effort to get him the job and save face after a mid season change. He finished 37th last year, but this is one of the nation’s best jobs with, likely top 10 talented roster this year. Without a top-25 finish or a tourney win even, he could face the same fate as other interim coaches have like Rodney Terry. Even a 30th finish may not be enough with a first round exit. The patience should be less here without the resume. Even Terry had an Elite 8 at Texas in his first year. |
| 11 | Vance Walberg | Fresno State | This hire was one of the more strange of recent memory with Walberg being 69 year olds and coaching high school since 2016 prior to Fresno. This is only year 2, but going 6-26 and 259th ranked likely expedites the change. Fresno is 103rd in Kenpoms program rank all time. It’s a program that should have the resources to compete at a higher level than this. |
| 12 | Steve Lavin | San Diego | 297th last year and 6 wins, coming off 223rd and 256th and I don’t see this lasting beyond this season. San Diego is 141st in program rank, it’s not a program that should be at this level. |
| 13 | Steve Forbes | Wake Forest | Forbes has a strong resume, ranked 28th two years ago, but followed with 72nd last year and zero NCAA appearances in five years. Even Danny Manning managed an NCAA appearance. Wake doesn’t seem as serious as they once were, but it might be time for a change without a lot of improvement. This roster doesn’t seem NCAA-worthy as well. |
| 14 | Kim English | Providence | 96th last year. The roster is underrated this year, but if he doesn’t make the NCAA Tournament or come close, he may be looking for a new job. Providence ranks 27th in talent in our model; but with English coaching it we have them ranked 46th. |
| 15 | Jerome Tang | Kansas State | Tang started strong with the Elite 8 run, but recent finishes of 70th and 65th raise concerns. Despite NIL support, his rosters often underperform expectations and just feel like an island of misfit toys. |
| 16 | Mike Young | Virginia Tech | Things are heading in the wrong direction, especially with a 164th-ranked team six years in last year. This year’s roster looks much improved, but he will likely need something like a top-75 season to secure his position. That seems doable with the additions. If it’s not , or anything close to last year look for a change. |
| 17 | Micah Shrewsberry | Notre Dame | 118th and 98th in his first two years. With the benefit of having his son on the team as a solid performer, a big step is needed this season. I don’t think most realize Shrewsberry went 15-48 at an NAIA school previously, raising questions about his overall track record and was this more a Jalen Pickett driven success at Penn State. |
| 18 | Adrian Autry | Syracuse | 115th last year after 80th in year one. This aligns with the baseline from Boeheim’s last two years (118th and 69th). Autry’s tenure is under scrutiny however given the roster talent with players like Brown, Copeland, Bell, and Mintz in year one. |
| 19 | Damon Stoudamire | Georgia Tech | 123rd and 103rd in his first two seasons. Georgia Tech was once a Final Four program, but expectations are lower today. He could still get a fourth season, as it’s unclear how much urgency exists in 2025. Do the fans even care these days? |
| 20 | Earl Grant | Boston College | Boston College is not an easy job, but finishes of 181st last year and 170th 2 of the last 3 years likely shouldn’t be acceptable even at a place like this. The hiring was always a weaker one to begin with. |
| 21 | Lamont Paris | South Carolina | The Gamecocks were 69th last year but only 2-16 in the brutal SEC. Nearly as strong as their 54th-ranked season two years ago when they reached the NCAA Tournament, highlighting the historic SEC strength. Year one at 221 really doesn’t help; another poor SEC record may not be enough. Everyone in the SEC is really motivated it seems. |
| 22 | Dedrique Taylor | Cal St. Fullerton | 6-26, 351st last year in season 12. It’s amazing he survived with only 3 seasons in the top 200 and a best of 124th. |
| 23 | Jay Ladner | Southern Miss | Not much is expected, but five of six seasons ranked 240+ is concerning. The USM alum may not return if it’s 6 in 7 years. |
| 24 | Michael Schwartz | East Carolina | Entering his fourth year, his peak season ranks 176th; relative to salary and talent, this might be enough to move on. However, he was given an extension this offseason. |
| 25 | Tommy Amaker | Harvard | Harvard has had to watch Yale and Princeton have good seasons recently while Amaker just had his 2nd worst season in his 19 year tenure at 256th. Only out done by year one 289th. That’s now 3 of the last 4 years they have finished 228, 228 and 256th with 158th two years ago as the good year. They havent’ been in the tournament or finished top 100 since 2015. Maybe they don’t care, but I would think seeing Yale dominate again might motivate them or Penn out pace them with Fran McCaffery. |
| 26 | Jeremy Ballard | FIU | In his seventh season, with a 250th ranking and having not cracked the top 200 since his second year, it seems time for a change. |
| 27 | Joe Scott | Air Force | Tough job at a service academy, but currently ranked 310th with four of five seasons 250+; results are insufficient. |
| 28 | Joe Golding | UTEP | 168th, 178th, 178th, and 162nd last year in his 4 seasons. He’s consistent, but this doesn’t seem acceptable at a place like UTEP. |
| 29 | Paul Mills | Wichita State | 154 and 138th in his first two years is not acceptable at WSU. |
| 30 | Aaron Fearne | Charlotte | Got the job as an interim. Those seem to have less of a leash. Was a solid 120 in year one but 257th last year will get you fired if there is anything near a repeat. Once upon a time they fired a coach for a top 80 NIT caliber season, and haven’t been close since. |
| 31 | Anthony Grant | Dayton | Finished 77th last year, respectable for most programs but likely not enough for Dayton. The 2020 fourth-place finish is fading, and he has had three seasons ranked 75+. With the level of support Dayton has I think their fans will demand more at some point. |
| 32 | Shane Burcar | Northern Arizona | Six seasons and zero top-215 finishes; even at a program like this, it pushes the limits. |
| 33 | Porter Moser | Oklahoma | Program rank is 26th, but finishing 54th, 46th, and 40th the last three years may not be enough. Rankings may be inflated by Kelvin Sampson’s previous tenure. |
| 34 | Wayne Tinkle | Oregon State | Tinkle has had strong historical performance and another solid season last year at 98, but recent finishes outside the top 175 indicate the program may be slipping. This roster also looks poor again. |
| 35 | Anthony Latina | Sacred Heart | Tough job with few resources, but 12 years in with zero top-200 seasons and seven seasons ranked 300+ is unacceptable. |
| 36 | Archie Miller | Rhode Island | 157th last year was his best of three years. Being paid a reported $2 million, the program may not be able to tolerate stagnation. They also may not have the funds to remove him. |
| 37 | Bill Coen | Northeastern | Coen has been there 19 years, so he likely survives, but the last three seasons without a top-250 team and a 209th finish last year are heading in the wrong direction. |
| 38 | Billy Lange | Saint Joe’s | Lange finished 99th and 85th the last two years. Prior seasons were brutal (190+ three of four). If this season goes poorly, it could be the end for a program that had a 1 seed this century. |
| 39 | Dwayne Killings | Albany | Four seasons and zero top-225 finishes. |
| 40 | Dave Ragland | Evansville | It’s year 4 and he hasn’t cracked the top 208 in his first 3. The expectations aren’t high here, but this might be poor enough to turn up the heat. |
| 41 | Rashon Burno | N. Illinois | Year 5 coming off a 343rd finish and 6-25. His best seasons was a 250 finish in year 2. If last year didn’t cause a chance not sure what it would take this one. |
| 42 | Rod Barnes | Cal St. Bakersfield | Entering his 15th year with only 2 top 200 seasons. basically they don’t really care it seems. He could probably post anotehr 245th ranked season like last year and be fine. |
| 43 | Jim Les | UC Davis | Entiring his 15th year as well, it’s the same story as Barnes only he has 4 top 200 seasons in that time frame. |
| 44 | Frank Martin | UMass | It’s year 4 and two of the 3 seasons have been 212+ including the worst last year at 222nd. They really need to make some noise in the the 1st year in the MAC and it doesn’t seem like they have the roster to. |
| 45 | Johnny Dawkins | UCF | Dawkins has done well moving to the Big 12 from the AAC, finishing 66th and 67th in his first two years. Given the roster, results are reasonable. Maybe the kind of characters he has to take to compete shine a negative light. |
| 46 | Shantay Legans | Portland | Entering year five coming off a 299th and 270th the last two years with a 157 peak. |
| 47 | Matt McKillop | Davidson | Entering his 4th season, it’s not been bad ranging from 125 to 147th. The last 3 seasons of his father were 70, 70 and 40 however. He raised the standards there, but this hire may have been more of an obligation so if he has another year similar to last (147th) I wouldn’t be shocked if they moved on. |
| 48 | Chris Mooney | Richmond | Mooney is a survivor, now in his 21st season coming off a season ranked 247th; Richmond may finally move on. |
| 49 | Shaheen Holloway | Seton Hall | Holloway is an alum, who won an NIT Championship in 2024. That probably buys him another year regardless, but if this year is anywhere near as bad as the 204th ranked team he fielded last year all bets are off. There is little excuse to be that bad, even if the resources are poor. Lot of really poor mid majors out classed Seton Hall last year. |
| 50 | Ron Hunter | Tulane | In his seventh year, Hunter was ranked 144th last season and seems to have lost momentum. |
| 51 | Ben Jacobson | Northern Iowa | 102nd and 11th the last two seasons, but after nearly 20 years, one off-season with stagnation could be enough. The program had two top-30 finishes under Jacobson, both over a decade ago. |
| 52 | Thad Matta | Butler | 75th last year is solid for this job and level of resources. Not everyone can be Brad Stevens, but pressure likely remains high from fans. Even if perhaps it shouldn’t be. |
| 53 | Tad Boyle | Colorado | The last 4 seasons have gong 79th, 70th, 24th, and 87th. It seems like resources are an issue, but overall the program has stalled a little. It’s worth watching with likely another season 75+. |
| 54 | Fred Hoiberg | Nebraska | Hoiberg is doing a good job at a tough program, but after several years, some rumblings may emerge if results slip. |
| 55 | Dennis Gates | Missouri | Welcome to the Gates roller coaster: 57th, 145th, and 19th in three seasons. Frustrations over style and rotations continue. Another yo-yo season could put him at risk. Anyone with an 0-18 conference season should remain cautious for a few years. |
| 56 | Brad Brownell | Clemson | Two outstanding top-25 seasons, but a coach who has been perpetually on the hot seat only needs a bad year. Likely looking at around 50th if health holds; an injury could make it a conversation again. |
| 57 | Doug Gottlieb | Green Bay | It went about as poorly as it possibly could have in year one going 4-28, 332nd. That doesn’t even include a loss to a D2 program. I could see it going equally as bad without Anthony Roy, and would put him as a name to watch in year two. However it’s unlikely they can fired Gottlieb. “if the school terminates him without cause within the first two years of his five-year deal, he would be owed twice the remaining base salary at the date of termination. As of now, that tally works out to about $2.3 million, a figure that exceeds the revenue the basketball team generated last season ($2.02 million)” I could see a coaching change, but it would likely have to come from a lower buyout or Gottlieb walks. |
