Any reader of my work knows how big of a fan I am of Dave Smart (link). I ranked him as the 4th best hire of this offseason, only behind Eric Musselman, John Calipari, and Chris Mack. Certainly higher than anyone else. Seeing several early projected rankings around 320th by other outlets, I have a feeling I’ll be about 150+ spots higher on this team in the preseason than anyone else. Let’s take a look at the incredible offseason Smart had, in my opinion, relative to the job he is taking over: a 6-26 (0-16) Pacific team that was ranked 358th last year on KenPom. I think many teams will regret overlooking him for years. I believe this team will see the most improvement of any team this season and surprise many.
10.1ppg for a 3 win team doesn’t jump off the page, but he has talent former top 50 type of recruit who has .582 true shooting and 12.8 PER at DePaul leading them in scoring. Rising Junior.
A freshman who played for Sweeden in multiple U18 teams including the Gold Medal team in 2022. Averaged 9.4ppg on the 12th place one in 2023.
The Roster
Elijah Fisher comes in our model ranked 195th nationally in ADJeff among returning players, with a 3.0 ADJeff. This may be surprising, but it shouldn’t be, given his talent and .582 true shooting percentage, even as the leading scorer of a 3-win DePaul team that opponents designed their defenses to stop. Under Smart, I expect him to be All-Conference in the WCC and fit well into his defensive system. The rest of the team includes multiple three-point shooters—May, Jones, Krivokapic, and Ralph—who will provide Fisher with the spacing he needs. All are capable of shooting 40% from three at other levels. Additionally, having two 6’11” plus players with MWC pedigrees behind him should help, along with other P5 athletes like Koulibaly and Washington.
The Staff
Also impressive is adding Craig Beaucamp, the U SPORTS Coach of the Year winner for 2023-24, who led the number one ranked Canadian team for most of the year and holds a 409-249 career record. Having him as the right-hand man is a great get for this level. Additionally, the top assistant from Long Beach State, which made the NCAA tournament last year, has joined the staff, along with a coach from NC Central and a Princeton grad who was a development coach with Smart at Texas Tech last year. This is a high-level staff for this level.
Conclusion
I really like the way this team fits. I think the talent is here as well to run his unique force to the weak hand defense, and that he will be so unique that it catches most teams off guard in year 1. Other teams might have similar philosophy’s but in Canada the rate of which he did it is nothing like what is done in the US.
It’s a well-constructed roster and staff that I could have a unique system I could see finishing as high as 4th or 5th in the West Coast Conference. That is saying something considering the addition of Washington State and Oregon State, as well as strong teams like Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, and San Francisco. I also like what Loyola Marymount did this offseason. If they make a leap into the top 150 ranked teams, that would be a great first season and one of the best coaching jobs relative to the situation and job he was taking over. I expect this improvement, given the roster enhancements and it will probably be the biggest divergent predictions between our model and others in the preseason.
