Predicting how high school players will perform in their first year of college is one of the most challenging tasks. Calling it hit-or-miss is an understatement, especially in the Super Senior Era. With this being the last season for 5+ year players 23 year old players, it highlights just how tough it is for freshmen to compete……
According to KenPom, only five of the top 100 players in offensive rating were true freshmen in 2023-24. During the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons, that number was 14. 2022-23, there were only two freshmen in the top 100. Playing time has remained roughly the same since 2020, but in 2019, nine freshmen ranked in KenPom’s top 100 players for percentage of minutes played — this season, there are two.
The Last Two Seasons
Using sports references consensus recruiting rankings, and our ADJeff rating which combines PER and SOS these were the top freshmen in the class and their rankings in the top 100. As you can see it’s about as random as you can get, with many top 5 or 10 players providing very little in the way of winning value. Who saw Brice Sensabaugh and Reed Sheppard coming with Consensus rankings of 33 and 49.
Given this backdrop of unpredictability, I expect more of the same randomness. However, based on my research, these are the players who seem to have the best chance to secure a defined role and excel.
The stats are uninspiring, even though they come from a great high school team. You would expect more dominance from what many have called a generational talent. He doesn’t turn 18 until late December, which, in this era works against him.
I think Flagg will face physical challenges due to his young age and lighter 205lb frame playing around the basket. He’s basically the equivalent of a high school junior who will be competing against many 22 to 24-year-olds next year. His performance may not even match his high school stats of 16.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 2.9 BPG, especially given the fact that he is 200lbs playing mostly around the rim.
I’m predicting around a 4.3 ADJeff, placing him around the 40th best player nationally. Still very good, but I’m sure others will rank him in the top 5, if not first. I think it’s more likely he is worse than much better personally. That would be about a 23 PER 96 DRTg type of season at a similar SOS to what Duke is playing in a weaker ACC. I can’t see him doing more than that personally. For more.
He is young and doesn’t turn 18 until late September. Unlike Flagg, he actually has the size at 250 where he should be able to compete in the post better. He has also played against grown men already and dominated, averaging 19.11 PPG, 14.2 RPG, and 3.1 BPG with a 23 PER at the NBA Africa Academy.
I looked up the level of competition and there were many players in the league that had played in college, including a former Baylor All Big 12 player Jo Acuil who was 30 years old and 37 year old Hasheem Thabeet among others. For more.
Bailey averaged 32.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.4 blocks per contest against a schedule that included nine nationally-ranked opponents. for a team ranked 13th nationally. The stats are the best in the nation vs the highest level competition and if their is one player I think could project as the best freshmen, it’s Bailey, not Flagg.
Bailey is also very young for his class, not turning 18 until August, and he is a thin 6-8. With such questions in the post and a lack of rebounding for Rutgers I do think he will rebound very well, and get all the shots he can handle. That’s a recipe for good stats and I do believe there is a good chance he leads the nation in points and rebounding among the P5 freshmen. I would expect him to face massive amounts of pressure every night and he doesn’t have a great supporting cast. It could be at the cost of some efficiency vs a tougher SOS in the Big Ten. For more.
Well, this is a BIG swing by me. Wynott isn’t ranked at all by anyone, not even a 3-star on 247, and had no P5 offers. I don’t care. Washington State seems to have playing time available, and this guy has some of the most incredible statistics you will ever see. I understand this is against players in Idaho, a weak basketball state.
Still, he’s 6’6″ and averaged 36.0 ppg, 13.9 rpg, 9.1 apg, 2.9 spg, 3.0 bpg, and shot 51% from three on 91 makes in 27 games. He also shot 90% from the line, getting there 177 times. He averaged nearly identical stats (35.3 ppg, 14.4 rpg, 7.0 apg, 3.8 spg, 3.1 bpg) the previous season and shot 50% from three and 89% from the line. His team was 26-2 and ranked 5th in Idaho.
I once saw Tristen Newton put up insane stats like this out in west Texas, and no one recruited him and he looked the part same as Wynott. I’m going with my gut here on Wynott. He looks the part, and Washington State has the role for him to excel from day one for an offensive coach in David Riley. Look at these highlights and tell me this is an unranked guy with zero P5 offers. Link Honestly Washington State doesn’t have much in the way of a point guard, it wouldn’t shock me if they put the ball in his hands and he started day one.
19ppg, 11rpg 4.8 blocks per game and shoots FT’s at 76%. Georgetown needs a big man to step up and he seems most likely and with the highest upside. He could play along side Drew Fielder as well who is likely his biggest competition for minutes in the post.
The stats were solid in a pro league, Illinois gets a lot out of bigs. This seems like a good marriage with a role to be had after multiple center defections.
6-4 player that shot 94% from the line on 50+ attempts while averaging 6 assist per games will get you noticed. This was vs U18 players, but still there is some elite FT shooting and overall he posted a 28 PER in these 11 games.
UConn need someone to help replace Cam Spencer and Tristen Newton’s production and he shot 44% from three over two years. I think Aidan Mahaney is over rated so they may have to look to McNeely to help make up some of the slack.
Johnson put up some strong stats in U19 World Cup, and I would expect him to make an impact at Texas. Getting playing time on a deep team is the biggest question.
The stats weren’t very strong in international play for team USA, but Rutgers has to put the usage somewhere. I don’t expect him to be efficient but he will get shots.
Highly efficient for a 35-0 team. It might be hard to find true starter minutes but I’m giving him the Baylor bump as their freshmen usually perform well.
18.1 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.2 assists per contes, earning All-EYBL Second Team recognition. Saint Mary’s will need him to deliver and he will get a chance at the shots Aidan Mahaney leaves behind and have a good point guard feeding him in Augustas Marciulionis.
