Gonzaga
I’m really interested to see Gonzaga this season, especially since they are ranked about 15 to 20 spots lower than I would have them in some rankings. A big reason for that is I want to see Mario Saint-Supery and how the post pairing of Graham Ike and Braden Huff works. That duo nearly took down Houston in the NCAA Tournament last year, with Huff playing 31 minutes and Ike 37. If Supery can perform well, there are multiple paths for Gonzaga to be a strong team. Huff and Ike also have the potential to play more this year, which could help even more. I’m not particularly high on Tyon Grant-Foster—I think he’s one of the more overhyped players—but he has been better than he was last year. If he can return to the level he showed two years ago, that could provide a meaningful boost.
Florida
At Florida, I’m anxious to see how the frontcourt of Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, and Ruben Chinyelu works together. It was not a lineup that play together much if any. Under 100 possession at best. My main concern is skill when the team goes bigger, but even if that doesn’t work perfectly, I think Florida can still get all three on the court enough to be a Top 20 team. The bigger issue is getting their best players on the court. Haugh and Condon are both top 15 in my model, and they need minutes no matter what. The backcourt is a bigger question mark, but I think you’ll get enough production from Xaivian Lee, and Fland is a Top 100 player in my model, even if the sample is smaller. Ultimately, I think the frontcourt will largely determine Florida’s upside this season, and it’s about prioritizing talent over perfect fit.
D2-to-D1 Coaching Watch
I’m also intrigued by the three D2-to-D1 coaches at Denver, Central Michigan, and IU Indy, with Ben Howlett catching my attention the most. Many of these coaches bring four or five players with them from their previous top D2 teams, which has proven to be a successful formula. It worked at Drake last year and also helped Indiana State become competitive in the second year when Courvoisier McCauley transferred back to play under Josh Schertz, mirroring his D2 success with several of his former top players. Similarly, Cal Poly improved dramatically under DeGeorge, who brought five players from his D2 team. I don’t expect top 50 results like Drake, but I do believe these teams will exceed expectations. If this approach continues to work, it could become a model for mid- and low-major programs when hiring new coaches.
Houston
Houston is usually plug-and-play, but I’m curious to see if their freshmen, especially wings like Isiah Harwell, are ready to contribute. It’s easy to assume that Houston’s talent will automatically translate to success, given their elite post and backcourt players, but the wings are important for defense, which is essentially Houston’s lifeblood. Early-season games should reveal whether the freshman wings can step up and maintain the team’s defensive identity.
Louisville
For Louisville, I’m watching to see if they play a more sensible rotation like they did last year after injuries forced adjustments. Will Coach Kelsey stick to heavy minutes for the stars, or adopt a more balanced approach? I’m also curious about Sananda Fru, whose performance in the German league can be translated to NCAA expectations using AI-adjusted SOS metrics. That league featured many prime-age players similar to Carson Edwards or Jayden Gardner, so it’s a good test. Even if the translation works, I doubt Kelsey will play him more than 20 minutes a game.
Illinois and the Ivisic Brothers
Illinois has an intriguing potential Eastern European starting lineup, and I’m especially curious about seeing the Ivisic brothers together. Even if they don’t fully deploy it, this pairing is interesting to watch and could impact matchups.
UNC and NC State
I’m fascinated by UNC’s $14 million roster and whether it actually has cohesion and “wheels.” In the exhibition vs. BYU, I was impressed by what I saw from UNCW. Paired with Vin Allen Lubin at NC State, I’m eager to see if he can elevate the team at NC State to outperform UNC in year one, and perhaps make an All ACC team. That would be a story in the Triangle.
Kentucky
Some people have Kam Williams projected as an NBA draft lottery pick, but I’m curious if he will even rank among the top 6–7 minutes-getters on Kentucky this season. I’ll be watching for that.
UConn and Arizona
At UConn, I’m watching Taris Reed closely. If he gets 30 minutes a game, UConn becomes a very strong team. Similarly, I’m curious if Tobe Awaka will play more than 20 minutes. If he does, he could average 12+ rebounds, but I suspect it’s unlikely he will get that much playing time, not that he could put up the stats.
Texas Tech
Texas Tech could face rotation challenges if they try to play Luke Bamgboye and JT Toppin together too much. Toppin played the majority of his minutes at center last year, which made him more dynamic offensively. He may need that same positioning again this year to be effective. The readiness of Christian Anderson and the supporting cast will also determine whether the team can reach its ceiling. Toppin might be capable of dragging Texas Tech into the Top 20 mostly by himself, but he’ll need help for higher aspirations. When I rank simulations with out him this was close to the 45th best team.
Iowa and Ohio State
Iowa’s talent is not as strong as many rankings suggest, while Ohio State has one of the most talented rosters in my model. I’m very interested in seeing how coaching versus talent plays out between these two teams, and which factor ultimately drives success. Perhaps some of the biggest disparities in coach and talent differences, both ways, in the nation, so I’m interested in both.
Kansas
For Kansas, I wonder if Bill Self still has it. I like Peterson, but outside of Flory Bidunga and Tre White, I think the roster is not quite up to Kansas standards.
Auburn and Miami
I want to see whether Steven Pearl at Auburn can sink or swim. Auburn’s roster was top 8 in my model before the coaching switcharoo, but now it’s 29th since it’s been adjusted. Similarly, Miami has a talented roster (32nd nationally), but it doesn’t fit perfectly and who knows about coaching competence much like with Ohio State. The key question for both programs will be whether the coaches can make these rosters NCAA tournament competitive. For Diebler, it might take a top 25 finish at minimum.
Individual Players to Watch
I’m curious about Chad Baker-Mazara—will he become a star who puts up elite stats, or is he more of a high-level elite role player? He’s basically in his basketball prime, the age at which NBA players often hit their peak, so this is the perfect opportunity for him to school the younger players.
At Texas A&M, I think this might be the deepest team in the nation according to my model, though all the players are clustered in a 150–350 range. The big question is who emerges as the star, because there are lots of options for standout performers.
For Michigan State, I’m watching to see if Tom Izzo finally gets caught by a single injury. The roster already isn’t deep or overly talented or versatile and he’s taken one injury already, so this could be the year his NCAA streak is at risk.
I’m also watching Nate Bittle—will he be the best player on a largely irrelevant team that squeaks into the NCAA Tournament, or will he have a supporting cast to help elevate the team and himself into All American contention?
At Indiana, I’m just interested in seeing if Conerway and a mid-major All-Star team can crack the Top 40 or am I completely wrong on them.
Will Jason Edwards lead the Power Five in scoring, and will Jemel Jones lead the NCAA overall? I’m also curious about Sacramento State—how will they perform with legitimate P5-level talent like Bear Cherry, or is the coaching a limiting factor?
Teams and Coaching Situations
Pacific is entering year two under Dave Smart, and I’m cautiously optimistic. Last year, I was sold on what he accomplished in Canada and in the exhibitions vs NCAA powers, but the team didn’t perform as expected. Another 200+ ranking year might push me to move on, but I still believe in his approach.
SMU could be a sleeper team with Boopie Miller leading the way. They have the horses to sneak up on people if things align.
Marquette is interesting under Shaka Smart. Is this the year his stubbornness catches up to him for ignoring the transfer portal entirely? He’s made it work so far, but I see no players like Tyler Kolkeck (who was a transfer) and Kam Jones. This might be the year the philosophy is exposed and limits the team’s ceiling.
West Virginia presents one of the best coaching-over-talent scenarios. In my model, Hodge ranks 40th for coaching and West Virginia’s roster 70th for talent. Will Hodge‘s coaching and talent evaluation overcome the talent gap, find hidden gems, and elevate the team?
Mid-Major and Conference Watch
I’m keeping an eye on Pitt, Syracuse, and Wake Forest—these teams may signal whether the ACC can regain traction. Early-season performance will be the “canary in the coal mine” for that conference.
At Georgetown, it’s taken three years for me to project them up to around 70th in the model. I’m curious why it’s taken so long, and anything less than that bare minimum might suggest a coaching change is necessary.
Virginia Tech seems to have talent for a big improvement, and I’m interested to see how their international player look early.
Villanova has a roster that looks very weak compared to what Neptune had a few years ago in talent. I’ll be watching to see if Kevin Willard can elevate it where as Neptune could not. The expectations are low however.
At Notre Dame, I also have low expectations, so I’ll be watching to see if they can surprise or also look on the 75+ path. It’s getting late quick here as well like Georgetown especially with a slow start.
Florida State scored 105 points against Alabama in an exhibition. While the talent isn’t elite, the roster fits together well, and the new coach is worth monitoring for early results. He built a team that made sense on the budget he had. Could be something here.
I’m not expecting much from Utah or Rutgers, but I’ll be watching to see if the early season games are particularly ugly.
Grand Canyon looks like it has less talent than the team that finished 101st last year. I’m curious whether Bryce Drew has lost momentum and how the program will perform in the Mountain West, especially with top-80-level resources and support. Early returns will give us a good idea of that.
Chris Mack is at a strong mid-major job, and I’ll be watching for early results to see if he shows progress. There are really no excuses not to be sniffing around 100th or better this year.
UAB is another interesting case. I used to be a believer in Kennedy at UAB, but now I’m skeptical. If he couldn’t win with Yaxel, can he do better now? I’ll be watching the defense, especially since Yaxel was a big problem for UAB’s defense last year, anchoring the 231st ranked defense it while playing 34 minute. Early results and two 100-point games allowed in exhibitions at Michigan against teams like Cincinnati could provide insight and are worth monitoring. Was that just some exhibition going through the motions or is this going to be a problem.
Rhode Island under Archie Miller is another team I’ll be watching. I doubt there will be a breakthrough, but I’m it’s time to start expecting one.
Radford has a roster I like for a low-major program, though there’s been some turmoil. I’ll be watching to see if Chu can coach them after a nice offseasons and well above average talent for a Big South team. Can he coach and navigate the challenges.
Finally, I’ll be keeping an eye on top JUCO and D2 players translating to the D1 level, including prospects at Hawaii, Idaho State, and other programs. There’s a lot to watch this early season, and these storylines will be the most interesting to follow.
