Many teams streamline their rotations this time of the year, relying on a core group of 6 or 7 players whom they trust. This tournament follows suit, with the majority of teams opting for such a strategy. To assess the prowess of these key players, it’s pertinent to examine their rankings on the season in adjusted efficiency (ADJeff: efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule) as we approach the Final Four.
UConn leads the nation in Adjusted offense and ranks 4th in Defense. Remarkably, they have yet to fully leverage Clingan’s potential, with his playing time capped at 27 minutes during this postseason run and 22 minutes on average over the season, consequently limiting him. Should circumstances tighten, Coach Dan Hurley has the option to extend Clingan’s minutes, thus amplifying his impact on the court.
This team stands out as exceptionally formidable, consistently dominating opponents even without fully unleashing Clingan. Should the competition intensify, anticipate Clingan’s playing time surpassing the 30-minute mark, significantly influencing the outcome of the game. Notably, he has remained free from significant foul trouble in the past 14 games although a matchup with Edey would be tough. UConn is the clear team to beat even while sitting on their fastball.
Purdue emerges as the primary contender to UConn, boasting a resume that rivals or surpasses their counterpart’s. With the nation’s 2nd best adjusted offense and the 17th-ranked defense anchored by Edey, Purdue presents a formidable challenge. Edey’s is the most dominant player on the court by a significant margin.
However, a notable concern lies in Purdue’s roster composition, heavily reliant on one exceptional player. While Edey adeptly navigates avoiding foul trouble and injuries while dismantling opponents’ game plans against him, the team’s vulnerability stems from their dependence on him. This singular focus on Edey potentially renders Purdue less versatile and susceptible to fluctuations, particularly if Edey experiences an off-game or gets into foul trouble.
In contrast, as previously discussed, UConn strategically manages their resources, with Clingan’s playing time held to a mere 22 minutes per game, allowing them an extra gear than they have had to use so far. Furthermore, Clingan’s unique defensive abilities position him as a formidable challenger against Edey, potentially nullifying his impact more effectively than any other player in the nation. This could be one of the all time match ups if we are lucky enough to get it. With 5 of the top 12 players according to our model UConn should win. Zach Edey is just so good himself that it puts Purdue a very close second.
Alabama enters the Final Four boasting the standout guard of the final four, likely outmatching other backcourt counterparts by a considerable margin. Additionally, they possess notable depth, a quality that could prove advantageous in the upcoming matchups if there is any foul trouble or injuries. Their reliance on perimeter shooting, and their propensity for three-point attempts, provides them with a “puncher’s chance” in games where opponents may struggle with their shooting.
With the 3rd best offense in the nation, Alabama’s ability to capitalize on off shooting days from their opponents offers a glimmer of hope if they are on. However, their defensive ranking, standing at 105th, and worst in the Final Four poses a significant challenge, indicating that victory likely would necessitate a fortuitous alignment of circumstances.
While Jarin Stevenson delivered an exceptional performance, going 5-8 from beyond the arc against Clemson in 28 minutes of play, it’s improbable to anticipate a repeat showing in the Final Four. Even with that anomalous performance they barley beat Clemson. Teams like UConn and Purdue are another animal and typically excel at neutralizing such shooting threats, making it difficult for Alabama to have three point success against them. Also teams tend to play tighter when the pressure is at it’s highest and three point percentages go down.
NC State defies expectations as the underdog in the Final Four, yet their recent nine-game winning streak, which includes victories over formidable opponents such as Marquette, Duke (twice), and UNC, underscores their potential threat. Despite not boasting an offense or defense within the top 40 nationally for the season, their streak and current form signals their capacity to pose a challenge.
Contrary to claims on a national podcast, DJ Burns coming from nowhere he was indeed recognized, ranked 71st in our model in the preseason rankings. His per-possession value has always been visible. However, his relatively modest scoring average of 13 points per game stemmed from limited playing time—less than 25 minutes per game this season and 22 minutes per game last season. Notably, at Winthrop, he earned the Big South Player of the Year title despite playing only 20.9 minutes per game, a testament to his exceptional talent and impact he was making per minute. It’s insane to win any conference POY award playing 6th man minutes on your own team.
The disparity lies primarily in the minutes coaches allocate to him. In tournament scenarios where the stakes are win or go home, coaches tend to prioritize their best players, as evidenced by Burns’ recent performances. Playing 5 games in five days or 9 games in 2 weeks wasn’t a problem for his conditioning. This includes or 42, 27, and 29 minutes in the last three games, even on just a day of rest between them, exemplifies his capability when given the opportunity. With the potential to surpass the 30-minute mark, provided he avoids foul trouble against Edey, Burns, a formidable presence despite his size, has demonstrated his readiness for increased playing time. The question I would ask is why it took this long especially considering the reduced game frequency since January with only 2 games a week. He could have been playing more.
Conclusion
UConn appears exceptionally formidable and versatile, capable of overcoming various challenges such as foul trouble, injuries, or off games. Their depth allows them to potentially elevate their game further by deploying Clingan for over 30 minutes in dire circumstances, providing them with an additional gear that sets them apart. In contrast, other teams in the Final Four face more significant uncertainties.
Despite the compelling matchups and intriguing storylines, it’s impossible to overlook the missed potential due to Houston’s injuries. Prior to their setbacks, they stood shoulder-to-shoulder with UConn and Purdue, a tier to themselves on the season, promising an even more thrilling Final Four. Even if NC State had upset them instead of Duke, it would have added a layer of legitimacy. Nonetheless, the current lineup promises excitement and drama, particularly with the prospect of a UConn-Purdue final, which has the potential to be truly epic with an all time great player in Edey and potentially all time great team and dynasty in UConn.
