Let’s take a look at the regions and where these teams ranked in the NCAA’s own official NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET Rankings). We’ve listed the top seeds or highly ranked teams that figure into it. Other respected computer rankings, like KenPom, also line up pretty similarly.
Seed
East Region
NET Rankings
1
UConn
2
2
Iowa St.
6
3
Illinois
13
4
Auburn
5
5
San Diego St.
20
6
BYU
12
7
Washington St.
44
8
Fla. Atlantic
39
9
Northwestern
53
10
Drake
47
11
Duquesne
80
12
UAB
104
13
Yale
83
14
Morehead St.
106
Seed
South Region
NET Ranking
1
Houston
1
2
Marquette
14
3
Kentucky
18
4
Duke
10
5
Wisconsin
21
6
Texas Tech
27
7
Florida
29
8
Nebraska
33
9
Texas A&M
45
10
Colorado
25
10
Boise St.
26
11
NC State
63
12
James Madison
52
Seed
Midwest Region
NET Ranking
1
Purdue
3
2
Tennessee
7
3
Creighton
11
4
Kansas
19
5
Gonzaga
17
6
South Carolina
51
7
Texas
30
8
Utah St.
38
9
TCU
42
10
Colorado St
36
10
Virginia
54
11
Oregon
59
12
McNeese
56
13
Samford
74
14
Akron
108
Seed
West Region
NET Ranking
1
North Carolina
8
2
Arizona
4
3
Baylor
15
4
Alabama
9
5
Saint Mary’s (CA)
16
6
Clemson
35
7
Dayton
23
8
Mississippi St.
31
9
Michigan St.
24
10
Nevada
34
11
New Mexico
22
12
Grand Canyon
50
Average
Top 4
Top 8
Top 12
East
6.5
17.6
35.4
South
10.5
19.1
28.1
Midwest
10
22
30.8
West
9
17.6
22.5
Worst Seeds By NET
Seeded to Low
NET Ranking
4
Auburn
5
6
BYU
12
11
New Mexico
22
9
Michigan St.
24
10
Colorado
25
10
Boise St.
26
10
Colorado St.
36
10
Virginia
54
13
Samford
74
14
Morehead St.
106
14
Akron
108
Seeded To High
NET Ranking
6
South Carolina
51
7
Washington St.
44
9
Northwestern
53
11
Oregon
59
11
NC State
63
11
Duquesne
80
12
UAB
104
UConn
UConn’s reward for being the number one overall seed is facing the toughest path among all of the 1 seeds. They will likely have to play a Final 4 team that returns most of its players from last year in the 2nd round. Potentially, they’ll face an Auburn team that ranks 5th in the NET but is seeded as a 4 seed, and then Iowa State, which ranks 6th in the NET and is playing exceptionally well, having recently blown out the 2nd overall #1 seed. Many argued that Iowa State should have been a 1 seed, yet they were seeded as the weakest 2 seed. It’s a challenging draw for the defending national champions. Their region clearly boasts the toughest seeds from 2 through 6. Even San Diego State as a 5 seed ranks 20th in the NET and was a Final 4 team last year, while the 6 seed is a team ranked 12th in the NET.
Seed
East Region
NET Ranking
1
UConn
2
2
Iowa St.
6
3
Illinois
13
4
Auburn
5
5
San Diego St.
20
6
BYU
12
For comparsion
South Region
NET Ranking
1
Houston
1
2
Marquette
14
3
Kentucky
18
4
Duke
10
5
Wisconsin
21
6
Texas Tech
27
Duquesne (80th) and UAB (104th) are weak double digit seeds at 11th and 12th, but this is also bad for UConn because they will likely give little resistance to teams UConn might face like Auburn who has UAB in their site. UAB is clearly the worst 12 seed so an upside is much less likely. At least if you have a New Mexico ranked 22nd but seeded 11th in the region the would be much likely to take out a higher seed themselves you then do not have to deal with. Even among the 16 seeds Stetson is a tougher draw than Howard, Wagner, or Grambling by the rankings.
Conclusion
Bubble Burst
Bubble
Conference
NET Ranking
Indiana St.
MVC
28
St. John’s
Big East
32
Cincinnati
Big 12
37
Pittsburgh
ACC
40
Villanova
Big East
41
Wake Forest
ACC
43
Oklahoma
Big 12
46
Utah
Pac-12
48
Ohio St.
Big Ten
49
Our only significant gripe with the bubble is that St. John’s didn’t get in. Another Big East team deserved to be in, especially one ranked 32nd in the NET and even higher in KenPom (25th), which is also used by the committee. What are we doing here? How is a team like Virginia more deserving, or why does anyone want to see them try to score 50 points? Even if you don’t look at the cold hard metrics, wouldn’t Rick Pitino being back in the dance with a historical program make for a better narrative and TV to sell your product? All and all this is one of the worst seeding jobs I can recall. The Big East and St. John’s deserved a bid and at least 4 teams in, and UConn should have had the easiest path and got the hardest by far.
