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NBA Rookie Expectations

2023-2024 Projections in bold

Victor Wembanyama

We expect Wembanya to have a good counting stats season, but to probably struggle to do it super efficiently. I would expect the spurs to let him push towards 20ppg if he gets close.

19.5ppg, 9.5rpg, 2.5bpg, 19.5 PER (averaged 20.8ppg, 10.3rpg, 2.9bpg 24.4 PER for Boulogne-Levallois)

Chet Holmgren

Holmgren look solid in summer league returning from injury.

13.5ppg, 9.0rpg, 2.5bpg, 20.5 PER (14.0ppg, 8.3rpg, 24.2 PER in five Summer League games).

Scoot Henderson

We expect Lillard to be moved sooner than later. That paves the way for a lot of inefficient shot taking. 15ppg, 6apg, 5rpg, 12 PER (He averaged 16.5ppg, 6.4apg with a 13.3 PER in the GLeague)

Brandon Miller

Miller struggled more in summer league than his counter parts only posting a 15 PER in 153 minutes and 5 games. I wouldn’t expect him to shoot 31% from three though. 12ppg, 6rpg 13.5 PER

Ausar Thompson

The Thompson twins are the most difficult to project. Ausar had a nice summer league in 4 games 13.5ppg, 10rpg, 19.7 PER. That seems noisy to me. 10ppg, 6rpg 4.0apg 12 PER

Amen Thompson

Thompson probably benefits from the Kevin Porter Jr situation going south. 10ppg, 4.5rpg, 5.5apg 13 PER.

Keyonte George

All the talk has been about how George lost 25lbs and it should help his game. He averaged 18.8ppg, 3.6rpg, 5.6apg 25.3 PER in 6 summer league games and was one of the best players. He should make shots fairly efficiently by rookie standards. 11.5ppg, 3.0rpg, 3.5apg 16 PER

Sasha Vezenkov and Vasilije Micic

At 28 and 30 years old these two rookies have a chance to make an impact. Both were very good in Europe with 21 and 24 PER respectively. I think 8 to 10 point per game around 15 PER role players is a fair expectations going to Sacramento and OKC teams trying to win.


I’d expect your typical rookie type of seasons from most everyone else. Mostly average well under 10ppg and pretty inefficient if they carve out much of a role. The three I think that have the potential to get close to 10ppg are Jarace Walker and possibly Dereck Lively. Walker is probably the most likely of the three to crack 10ppg and probably 5rpg and do it pretty efficiently. Cam Whitmore is kind of interesting but I don’t really see the minutes or role on a Houston team trying to win. Trayce Jackson-Davis would be my deep sleeper picked 57th. I think he will have a role with Golden State and be efficient and Hunter Tyson will need to play on Denver, but both are probably more 15 minute a game roles on good teams. They should be efficient though, especially Jackson-Davis.

Rookie of the Year

Victor Wembanyama

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