With the Pac-12 officially rebooting by adding four new teams—San Diego State, Boise State, Fresno State, and Colorado State—this week, let’s examine realistic options for further expansion. In these situations, I would typically advocate for a “less is more” approach, but the conference will need at least two additional teams to even qualify for football competition. While football drives most of these decisions, basketball plays a role, and factors like resources, support, academics, and geography are critical as well. So, what are the next best moves for the Pac-12?
1
Washington State
2
Oregon State
3
San Diego State
4
Boise State
5
Fresno State
6
Colorado State
Strength in Numbers vs. Quality
While the “less is more” philosophy has merit, there’s also an argument to be made for strength in numbers. In an ideal world, Cal and Stanford might find the ACC unsustainable or less appealing if the ACC is raided by other conferences, and they could return to the fold. With only two schools, the Pac-12 could easily accommodate them in the future.
Memphis
For now, I believe the best option on the table for both football and basketball is Memphis. Adding Memphis would make sense, particularly as it would weaken the American Athletic Conference (AAC). Given the Mountain West Conference’s (MWC) strength in basketball particularly, Memphis might see the Pac-12 as an attractive destination. Geography isn’t good, but there are worse examples nationally. Memphis should be target number one, make them say no.
Next Tier: Nevada and Utah State
Nevada and Utah State seem like logical additions. Both have central locations relative to Fresno State, Boise State, Washington State, and Oregon State, and they open up two separate states. UNLV is also in a better geographic location and could be a valuable addition to host tournaments.
UNLV and a Possible Play for Gonzaga
My fourth option would be UNLV. Geographically and financially, they make sense for the Pac-12. Adding these four teams (Memphis, Nevada, Utah State, and UNLV) would bring the conference to ten teams. At that point, if all four are committed, I’d push to add Gonzaga as a basketball-only member, similar to Wichita State’s role in the AAC. While it might seem unlikely, the Pac-12 could provide enough from a basketball perspective to entice Gonzaga. That would give the conference 11 teams, and it could adopt a round-robin format similar to the Big East, creating a strong basketball league.
Pac-12
1
Washington State
2
Oregon State
3
San Diego State
4
Boise State
5
Fresno State
6
Colorado State
7
Memphis
8
Nevada
9
Utah State
10
UNLV
11
Gonzaga (Basketball-only)
Who to Leave Out
There’s a case for adding New Mexico and Air Force, particularly because of Air Force’s national brand and ability to draw attention, even if they aren’t competitive on the field or court. However, given their more peripheral location, I see value in sticking with the “less is more” approach for now.
As for Wyoming and San Jose State, I’d have little interest in adding them if I were the Pac-12. You could consider North Texas, but if I could secure Memphis and Gonzaga, I’d cap the conference at 11 teams for the time being. Wait out Cal, Stanford and SMU.
If Memphis said No
New Mexico
If Gonzaga said No
Air Force
No
North Texas
No
San Jose State
No
Wyoming
The Path Forward
If Memphis and Gonzaga aren’t attainable, I’d consider adding New Mexico and Air Force. This would also provide the opportunity to remove Wyoming and San Jose State from the equation. Essentially, this would involve trading them for Washington State and Oregon State, forming a new version of the MWC under the Pac-12 branding. Alternatively, the entire MWC could rebrand itself under the Pac-12 banner—this seems like one of the most likely outcomes over the next few years but the fact it didn’t happen immediately makes me think they want to try to make a play for Memphis and leave a couple behind. The end goal is waiting out the ACC. The MWC will be next in the barrel, in a similar situation to what the Pac-12 found them in with only 2 or 3 teams.
