Adjusted Effiency(ADJeff) is efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule. I’ve also include each players minutes, player efficiency ratings and true shooting. We listed all the players from each team that have played 500+ minutes on the season.
Here are each teams top minutes players and their rank in ADJeff among the other final 4 teams. In games of high important like this coaches usually cut the benches way down and play the players they trust larger portions of minutes. I think you should expect a little tighter rotation for each team. Foul trouble and injuries can also impact the rotations of course.
UConn isn’t overly deep but they don’t need to be. They have some of everything and even if the best player in the Final Four Sanogo was to get into foul trouble or and injury they have Donovan Clingan. Donovan Clingan is a statistical beast but didn’t meet our minutes requirement. If he got minutes and a call up for some reason, I have no doubt he’d be one of the best players in the final four with his per minute production. UConn is stacked.
Miami has 3 of the top 7 players by ADJeff. Nijel Pack can get as blazing hot as anyone left in the tournament as well. He had such a slow start the first 12 games. The last 22 he has likely been more like a top 10 player and is coming in playing more at that level. We detailed it here. Pack is 64-147 for .435% from three and averaged 15.2 points in the last 22 games. Miami plays small and has a dynamic offense. Unfortunately teams with players like Sanogo or players that drive may punish them at the rim.
San Diego State
San Diego State’s value is probably not fully captured in the efficiency. There are some defensive components but it’s a weaker part of the statistic I think everyone understands. San Diego State is the best defensive team in the tournament left by KenPom’s adjusted defensive numbers. Other than Miami these are all pretty good defensive teams.
|San Diego State||4|
Unfortunately the offense is also the worst.
|San Diego State||74|
FAU is a legit team who is pretty good on both sides of the ball. There is lots of balance and a deep rotation. This is the time of the year I think the deep rotation is less important though. I think you would much rather have the top 5 or 6 players, specifically the top 3. This is where FAU probably is the weakest, but they have been proving us and everyone else wrong all year.