Statistical Phenoms: Players You Should Have Seen Coming

In the ever-evolving world of high school basketball recruiting, it’s not uncommon to see overlooked players emerge as stars at the collegiate or professional level. While mainstream recruiting networks often set the narrative, there are numerous instances where unheralded high school talents have defied expectations and made significant impacts. Here’s a look at some standout players who, despite lacking high-profile rankings or offers, have proven their worth. One of which I called before he ever played a minute of college basketball.

My Method

I analyze national stats to identify players who stand out as sleepers. I avoid filtering out 5-11 rudy shooters and focus on those with more substantial size and athletic ability. By examining highlights and conducting thorough research, I find those who have slipped under the radar.

Tristen Newton: From West Texas to National Attention

Tristen Newton first caught my attention years ago with his incredible high school statistics in West Texas. Averaging 38 PPG and 9 RPG as a senior, his numbers were phenomenal, shooting 70% from two point range and 88% from the free-throw line. Despite leading his team to the Texas 5A Final Four including 3 seasons in the top 5 in 5A Texas, his recruitment was minimal, with only a few offers from smaller programs and no high school ratings. Initially set to be redshirted by East Carolina, an injury led him to a significant role, showcasing the importance of looking beyond rankings and offers.

Offers:

• ECU
• Evansville
• Northeastern
• Jackson State
• Texas Rio Grande

Does this look like a player that barely should have had D1 offers?

Newton had an entire Huddle recruiting profile with around 40 minutes of highlights, yet no one seemed eager to recruit him. It was astonishing to see such talent overlooked especially with such a wealth of video, impressive video. It was as if he was begging to get offers with the amount of information he put out that largely went ignored.

What I heard at the time is Texas Tech’s coaching staff recommended ECU assistant at the time Steve Roccaforte reach out. That’s how he ended up at ECU. To this day I do not have a clue how a guy with this high school profile throwing down slams was as ignored. It was mind numbing even at the time with the only explanation I was given by a 247 employee and one coach was that the competition wasn’t good. At some point however it’s less about the competition and the things you do like make 88% of your free throws. That would have been top 10 in the NBA that season.

GP	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	TPG
34	37.4	9.2	2.7	2.6	0.7	2.9
35	28.3	6.8	4.7	2.9	0.8	2.7
33	22.8	6.3	4.2	3.0	0.9	1.9

GP	3PM	3PA	FTM	FT%	2FGM	2FG%
34	72	249	425	88	316	69
35	73	241	228	81	221	60
33	69	179	194	76	179	66

GP	Pts	FGM	FG%	PPS	AFG%
34	1273	388	55	1.8	60
35	991	294	48	1.6	54
33	751	248	55	1.7	63

Potentially Next: A Statistical Marvel from Idaho in 2025

Kase Wynott, a 6’6″ guard from Idaho, is a prime example of a player who has potentially slipped through the cracks and where I stake my next claim. Despite no Power Five offers and no ranking on major recruiting sites, zero stars, Wynott’s statistics are nothing short of extraordinary. Over his high school career, he averaged impressive stats, with shooting percentages of 51% from three-point range, 90% from the free-throw line. His team’s 26-2 record and a fifth highest ranking team in Idaho underscore his impact. Though the less competitive environment in Idaho presents a challenge if the theory is correct, his stats and highlights with the athletic ability he is demonstrating make him a compelling prospect. Washington State’s acquisition of Wynott seems wise, and his fit in David Riley’s offensive system should make him a a prime sleeper pick yet I have heard no one else talking about him.

• Senior Year: 36.0 PPG, 13.9 RPG, 9.1 APG, 2.9 SPG, 3.0 BPG
• Junior Year: 35.3 PPG, 14.4 RPG, 7.0 APG, 3.8 SPG, 3.1 BPG

GP	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG
27	27.5	36.0	13.9	9.1	2.9	3.0
27	23.1	35.3	14.4	7.0	3.8	3.1

GP	3PM	3P%	FTM	FT%	2FGM	2FG%
27	91	51	159	90	270	74
27	82	50	130	89	287	78

GP	Min	Pts	FGM	FGA	FG%	PPS	AFG%
27	743	971	361	545	66	1.8	75
27	623	952	369	532	69	1.8	77

Undoubtedly the level of competition in Idaho has scared many way. It’s the same criticisms I heard at the time with Newton playing out in West Texas. While this is even a lower level than that, after watching his highlight video and seeing impressive dunks I came away with the same vibes I did seeing Newton years ago. Anyone that shoots 51% from three and 90% from the line over 2 seasons and is 6-6 and throwing down highlight dunks has my full attention.

Digging through the teams he played, he did have the opportunity to play the 4th best team in Oregon who, won the 4A championship. In that game he had 28 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assist, 3 steals, 2 blocks, on 17 floor shots, while getting to the line 13 times. His 1A Idaho team lost 57-52 providing some evidence he would be a handful regardless. The only thing he didn’t do was hit three’s that night (1-7) and I wouldn’t worry to much about that. Getting to the line is the key here. He also had 42 points, 13 rebounds, 10 assist 3 steals, and 3 blocks, on 15-20 shooting, 8-10 from three, vs the 45th best team in Washington who was 20-7 winning 79-46. He also dropped massive stat lines on a team from California, and several top ranked teams in Idaho including 46 points in the Idaho championship game which they won. He seemed to show up for the good teams as well.

Honestly Washington State doesn’t have much in the way of a point guard, it wouldn’t shock me if they put the ball in his hands and he started day one.

2024 JUCO Gem

The JUCO player I’m most excited to see is ECU junior Jayshayne Woodard, who delivered impressive stats of 15.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 2.1 steals per game for the 23rd ranked JUCO team in the nation. Someone like Doir Johnson would be expected given his recruiting pedigree. Over 2 years Woodard made 52 three’s at 37.4% however that was lower volume under 1 make a game. He did make 77.3% of his free throw’s last season so there seems to be room to grow shooting. What makes Woodard particularly intriguing is his 6-7 frame, and a coach that has stated he could play some point guard this season.

Despite being lightly recruited, with offers from schools Arkansas State, FIU, Manhattan, Northern Illinois, Oakland, Robert Morris, Stony Brook, and Youngstown State, his versatility and ability to contribute across the board make him a player to watch. He is very thin which likely kept his interest down. While previous Indian River JUCO players haven’t always translated well to the next level, and the stats could be inflated some from a high paced team, Woodard is still someone I have an eye on. On their summer tour to the Bahamas, Woodard played 38 minutes, compiling 24 points on 10-14 shooting, 14 rebounds, 2 assist, 6 steals, and 3 blocks.

Other Notable Statistical Phenoms Who Defied Expectations

Joseph Girard

Rated 203rd by the 247 Composite.

Despite receiving offers from prestigious programs like Syracuse, Boston College, Duke, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Penn State 247 Composite rated him 203rd overall, but his high school performance spoke volumes.

Girard started playing varsity basketball for the Indians while still in eighth grade. He made an immediate impact, averaging 21.7 points per game. As a freshman, Girard’s scoring prowess became evident, averaging 33.9 points per game and making 122 three-pointers.

In his sophomore year, Girard continued to excel, averaging 36.4 points per game and leading his team to an impressive 24–1 record. His junior year was even more remarkable, with Girard averaging 50.0 points per game.

By his senior year, Girard averaged 48.6 points per game and guided Glens Falls to its first New York Federation title. He delivered a standout performance in the championship game, scoring 53 points and capping his high school career with a total of 4,763 points.

Johnell Davis

Offers:

• Florida Atlantic (Enrolled)
• Kent State (Offered)

Davis had the game of a rugged guard already in high school, but needed to add three-point shooting, with strong free-throw shooting suggesting this was achievable. He has since led FAU to the Final Four and moved on to Arkansas.

GP	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG
25	31.4	9.8	2.6	4.6	0.8
26	25.0	10.1	3.2	3.4	0.5

GP	Pts	3PM	3P%	FTM	FT%	2FGM	2FG%
25	785	46	27	147	77	250	57
26	650	31	26	123	74	217	62

GP	Pts	FGM	FG%	PPS	AFG%
25	785	296	49	1.3	52
26	650	248	53	1.4	56

Brooks Barnhizer

Rated 157th by the 247 Composite this is one where the recruiting services got it more correct than the coaches given the lack of quality offers. Now he is All Big Ten.

Offers:

• Yale (Offered)
• Northwestern (Enrolled)
• Ball State (Offered)
• Evansville (Offered)
• Butler (Offered)
• Western Kentucky (Offered)
• Detroit Mercy (Offered)

GP	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG
28	32.7	11.5	6.5	3.8	2.6

GP	3PM	3P%	FTM	FT%	2FGM	2FG%
28	77	40	229	80	228	66
26	49	45	109	78	141	62

GP	Pts	FGM	FG%	PPS	AFG%
28	916	305	57	1.7	64

Marcus Burton

Offers:

• Notre Dame
• Drake
• Ball State
• App State
• Bethel

GP	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG
30	30.2	5.5	4.6	3.3	0.4

GP	3PM	3P%	FTM	FT%	2FGM	2FG%
30	64	42	147	86	283	61

Jacob Ognacevic

Offers:

• Valparaiso
• UC Davis
• Green Bay
• DePaul
• Indiana State
• Milwaukee

GP	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG
26	39.4	16.1	0.9	1.3	1.8

GP	Pts	FGM	FG%	PPS	AFG%
26	1024	398	73	1.9	76

GP	3PM	3P%	FTM	FT%	2FGM	2FG%
26	40	49	188	86	358	77

Conclusion

These stories highlight that success in basketball isn’t always dictated by recruiting rankings or offers. Obviously with the portal filled with 2000 players a year now there are many failures in talent evaluations form the coaches and recruiting services. Players like Tristen Newton or Kase Wynott however I don’t see how you miss on when they leave high school with the kind of resume they did, combined with size and athleticism on video, can lead to significant success at higher levels. It’s certainly the players I would take a chance on. The fact that some of these players slipped so far under the radar still baffles me.