Western basketball is down this season with the Pac-12 and WCC already and the MWC seems poised to take a step back as well. Wyoming and the MWC were fortunate Hunter Maldonado returned or they may have struggled to get a 2nd bid, and still may. David Roddy staying in the draft unexpectedly (and then getting drafted high) was the flip side of bad luck. Here are our Mountain west basketball predictions
Here are our national ranks so you can see the tiers we have each of these teams on.
| National Rank | ||
|---|---|---|
| 15 | San Diego St | MWC |
| 31 | Wyoming | MWC |
| 57 | Fresno State | MWC |
| 83 | Utah State | MWC |
| 86 | Colorado State | MWC |
| 91 | Boise State | MWC |
| 95 | New Mexico | MWC |
| 119 | UNLV | MWC |
| 126 | Nevada | MWC |
| 220 | San Jose State | MWC |
| 222 | Air Force | MWC |
Instead of an All-Conference team, I’ve listed the Top Returning Players by Peak Adjusted Efficiency for SOS. Most will likely come from this list anyway, but the awards are more team driven. I’m more interested in who is doing the most when they are on the court. The players can’t control the team that was put around them. If they are putting up tangible numbers at top efficiency per possession on bad teams, that is more impressive to me. It’s coming under more pressure and game planning for them, with less viable options around them to take the pressure off. This list encompasses the players that have been the best on a D1 court going into the season.
| ADJ eff | Top 300 | |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Graham Ike | Wyoming |
| 62 | Hunter Maldonado | Wyoming |
| 110 | Jaelen House | New Mexico |
| 111 | Matt Bradley | San Diego State |
| 124 | Isaiah Stevens | Colorado State |
| 147 | Isaih Moore | Fresno State |
| 171 | Tyson Degenhart | Boise State |
| 181 | Nathan Mensah | San Diego State |
| 182 | Jarod Lucas | Nevada |
| 222 | Luis Rodriguez | UNLV |
| 234 | Morris Udeze | New Mexico |
| 241 | Darrion Tramell | San Diego State |
(Last year’s NET, Seed, and Tournament Finish are on the top header line for reference. Deep bench players are not listed, only those in the projected rotation. I also included player ADJ eff rankings. ADJ eff Rankings and qualifying explanation here.)
1. San Diego State
| San Diego State | 30 NET | 8 seed | PER | 1R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Mensah | 6-10, 230 | 7.0ppg, 6.8rpg | 18.6 | Gr |
| Keshad Johnson | 6-7, 210 | 7.2ppg,4.5rpg | 17.1 | Sr |
| Matt Bradley | 6-4, 220 | 16.9ppg, 5.4rpg | 21.1 | Gr |
| Lamont Butler | 6-0, 200 | 7.3ppg, 2.1rpg | 11.5 | Jr |
| Darrion Trammell | 5-10, 165 | 17.3ppg, 5.0apg (@ Seattle) | 21.9 | Jr |
| Chad Baker-Mazara | 6-7, 190 | 6.4ppg, 2.0rpg | 21.5 | Jr |
| Micah Parrish | 6-6, 180 | 12.1ppg, 6.0rpg | 16.6 | So |
| Jaedon LeDee | 6-9, 240 | 5.8ppg, 3.9rpg(@TCU 2021) | 19.5 | Jr |
| Adam Seiko | 6-3, 210 | 5.3ppg, 2.0rpg | 9.4 | Gr |
| Aguek Arop | 6-6, 220 | 3.5ppg, 3.3rpg | 14.7 | Gr |
| Elijah Saunders | 6-8, 220 | 3* |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 111 | Matt Bradley |
| 181 | Nathan Mensah |
| 241 | Darrion Tramell |
This team was a beast on defense with the #1 defensive rating in the country, and #2 in adjusted Ken Pom. Nathan Mensah the defensive POY in the MWC is returning for year 5 as do the other frontcourt players and the #1 frontcourt player off the bench. Needless to say, that defense is locked in again now as the identity to build around.
Getting LeDee back on the court could be key to taking this team to the next level if he can man the other 15 minutes at center Mensah isn’t playing. There is a lot to like with what they have brought back but also added in Trammell and Parrish in the backcourt. Those were nice gets in the portal for Dutcher and also potential improvements, especially Trammell who can generate offense for himself and others. I originally thought he may put more pressure on the defense behind him with his diminutive size but this is a team that needs another offensive gear to move up. It should be a nice trade-off. I’ve since found out in my research Trammell had one of the best defensive ratings in the nation. Pretty incredible stuff to have the highest defensive rating on a team as a 5-10 guard but he did. He should fit in perfectly on this defensive juggernaut.
2. Wyoming
| Wyoming | 58 NET | 12 seed | 1R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Ike | 6-9, 245 | 19.5ppg, 9.6rpg | 25.1 | Jr |
| Hunter Maldonado | 6-7, 200 | 18.5ppg, 5.7rpg | 22.9 | Gr |
| Max Agbonkpolo | 6-8, 190 | 7.7ppg, 3.5rpg(@USC) | 13.9 | Sr |
| Xavier DuSell | 6-4, 190 | 7.5ppg | 8 | Jr |
| Ethan Anderson | 6-1, 210 | 4.4ppg, 2.2apg(@USC) | 9.4 | Sr |
| Jeremiah Oden | 6-8, 180 | 7.8ppg, 4.5rpg | 15 | Jr |
| Brendan Wenzel | 6-7, 212 | 5.2ppg 2.9rpg | 9.8 | Jr |
| Jake Kyman | 6-6, 220 | 2.4ppg, 1.0rpg(@UCLA) | 12.7 | Sr |
| Noah Reynolds | 6-3, 195 | 2.9ppg, 0.7apg | 7.5 | So |
| Hunter Thompson | 6-10, 235 | 2.7ppg, 1.5rpg | 8 | Gr |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 25 | Graham Ike |
| 62 | Hunter Maldonado |
I’m not as high on their transfer haul as most people, they are fine but not really difference makers in my opinion. The difference maker here is Maldonado pulling his name out of the draft last minute. Getting him back with solid upgraded role players and the continuity they had from the returners here makes this a much more interesting team. With Roddy staying in the draft the MWC championship now seems to be a 2 team race with San Diego State and Ike and Maldonado are a great 1-2 punch to have.
3. Fresno State
Fresno State 77 NET | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaih Moore | 6-10, 215 | 13.1 Pts, 6.9 Reb(@USM) | 22.1 | Sr |
| Anthony Holland | 6-5,225 | 9.6 Pts, 6.2 Reb | 17.6 | Sr |
| Leo Colimerio | 6-7, 190 | 5.3 Pts, 4.8 Reb | 15 | Jr |
| Jordan Campbell | 6-4, 190 | 7.1 Pts, 3.1 Reb | 12.5 | Sr |
| Isaiah Hill | 6-0, 180 | 10.1 Pts, 3.3 Ast | 12 | Sr |
| Destin Whitaker | 6-5, 175 | 3.2 Pts, 0.6 Reb | 9.6 | Jr |
| Donavan Yap | 6-3, 175 | 2.3 Pts, 1.0 Reb | 3.8 | Jr |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 147 | Isaih Moore |
Fresno State returns nearly all but one of its main contributors. The problem is that one player was Orlando Robinson who averaged 19ppg 9rpg with a 30 PER. The good news is they replace him with Isaih Moore who I think is one of the more underacted transfers. Two seasons ago he averaged 9.2ppg, 4.8apg with a 25.7 PER for an NIT St. John’s team. Last season Southern Miss was on of the worst teams in the nation with a #342 NET but I don’t think you can pin that on him. He was still very efficient even as the #1 option there. The defense was bad but I think he’s shown in a better system he can hold up on that end. He’s not Orlando Robinson but I think he’s a pretty good stand in. The rest of the team improvement and continuity should help them tread water in the same area nationally at least or possibly improve a little.
4. Utah State
| Utah State | 65 NET | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Akin | 6-9 | 10.8ppg, 8.1rpg(Cal Baptist) | 19.4 | Sr |
| Taylor Funk | 6-8 | 13.2ppg, 6.6rpg(@St. Joe’s) | 16.5 | Sr |
| Sean Bairstow | 6-8 | 9.5ppg, 2.7rpg | 13.4 | Sr |
| Steven Ashworth | 6-1 | 8.7ppg, 3.6apg | 14.9 | Jr |
| Rylan Jones | 6-0 | 6.5ppg, 4.5apg | 12.6 | Sr |
| Max Shulga | 6-4 | 4.4ppg, 2.1rpg | 16.3 | Jr |
Utah State went 18-16 (8-10) last season but was #65 in NET. They played 10 quads 1 game and a very difficult SOS under first-year coach Ryan Odom. Odom wanted to step up in competition and he got it. This year they lose their two best players and only two double-digit scorers in Bean and Horvath. Returning are 6-1 point guard Steven Ashworth 8.7ppg, 3.6apg 14.9 PER, 6-0 Rylan Jones 6.5ppg, 4.5apg 12.6 PER, and 6-8,190 Sean Bairstow 9.5ppg, 2.7rpg 13.4 PER. It’s not the biggest or most productive core returning. They were able to add Taylor Funk for St. Joe’s who is 6-8, 230, and averaged 13.2ppg, 6.6rpg with a 16.5 PER, and another one of Odom’s former players at UMBC in Danial Aiken. He averaged 10.8ppg, 8.1rpg, and 19.4 PER for Cal Baptist last season. They will be helpful replacements but they have bigger shoes to fill. I do like the fit of the team though. I could see Utah State being better than my initial ranking they are pretty solid at all 5 positions and have good outside shooting.
5. Colorado State
| Colorado State | 35 NET | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cartier | 6-8, 220 | 22 Pts 6.1 Reb (D2 AA) | So | |
| John Tonje | 6-5, 222 | 9.1 Pts, 3.0 Reb | 14.8 | Sr |
| Jalen Lake | 6-4,185 | 3.6 Pts, 1.1 Reb | 9.9 | Fr |
| Isaiah Rivera | 6-5, 209 | 3.4 Pts, 1.5 Reb | 13.1 | So |
| Isaiah Stevens | 6-0,180 | 14.7 Pts, 4.7 Ast | 20.6 | Sr |
| Josiah Strong | 6-3, 194 | 11.5 Pts, 2.2 Reb(@Illinios St) | 14.1 | Sr |
| James Moors | 6-10,239 | 4.0 Pts, 2.5 Reb | 18.9 | So |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 124 | Isaiah Stevens |
David Roddy was an incredible college player, but I would have never expected him to be drafted 23rd in the 1st round. He is going to be a tough player to replace. Luckily for Colorado State, they return Isaiah Stevens at point guard where you want to experience. He should help get this team up to speed quicker. The big addition who will likely need to replace a lot of Roddy’s production in the post is Patrick Cartier. He was a D2 All-American last season. James Moors will also be called on to help replace some of Roddy’s impact as well as Dichon Thomas who was productive and transferred. I think both will be solid but in no way approach what Roddy and Thomas. They were able to add a nice player in the backcourt in Josiah Strong who averaged 11.5ppg at Illinois State. He will help with the depth.
6. Boise State
| Boise State | 34 NET | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadraque Nganga | 6-9, 205 | 4* | Fr | |
| Tyson Degenhart | 6-7, 232 | 9.9 Pts, 3.9 Reb | 18.8 | So |
| Pavle Kuzmanovic | 6-5,175 | 3.4 Pts, 0.8 Reb | 10.9 | Jr |
| Max Rice | 6-5, 194 | 4.0 Pts, 3.0 Reb | 7 | Sr |
| Marcus Shaver | 6-2,185 | 13.3 Pts, 2.1 Ast | 16 | Sr |
| R.J. Keene | 6-6, 200 | 3* | Fr | |
| Jace Whiting | 6-1, 180 | 3* | Fr |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 171 | Tyson Degenhart |
Boise State is certainly known for its football program, but the basketball program is probably not talked about enough. They are coming off a season where they made the NCAA tournament and finished 23rd in the Nation in the final AP poll. Boise has had a lot of success under Leon Rice in 12 years but this appears to be a rebuild losing a major contributor and some key depth. They also didn’t add any proven replacements. Boise will be dependent on freshman at a time when college basketball is as old as it’s ever been with super seniors. That’s not a great combination.
7. New Mexico
| New Mexico | 165 NET | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morris Udez | 6-8 | 235 | 10.2 Pts, 6.1 Reb(@Wichita St) | 17.2 | Sr |
| Jay Allen-Tovar | 6-9 | 217 | 7.9 Pts, 5.0 Reb | 16.3 | Sr |
| Javonte Johnson | 6-6 | 190 | 7.7 Pts, 4.6 Reb | 12.9 | Jr |
| Jamal Mashburn | 6-2 | 175 | 18.2 Pts, 2.7 Reb | 16.6 | Jr |
| Jaelen House | 6-1 | 160 | 16.9 Pts, 4.5 Ast | 21.1 | Sr |
| KJ Jenkins | 6-2 | 175 | 9.8 Pts, 3.2 Reb, | 13.8 | Sr |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 110 | Jaelen House |
| 234 | Morris Udeze |
New Mexico wasn’t very good last year, but they do return most of their key players. Back are Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn forming one of the better backcourts. They added Morris Udeze from Wichita State to solidify the frontcourt. The Aztecs should be improved with Udeze anchoring the center spot, which was a weakness, and all the surrounding returning continuity. House is the most impactful player and where I think you want your most experienced and best player on the ball. How good the defense can be is the ceiling on this team. Udez anchored some good team defense and had multiple Defensive Ratings under 99 at WSU. That is a better team defensive system, but he should still help New Mexico as badly as they were.
8. UNLV
| UNLV | 97 NET | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Muoka | 6-10, 210 | 2.7ppg, 3.8rpg | 18.5 | Sr |
| Luis Rodriguez | 6-6, 210 | 7.6ppg, 6.3rpg(@Ole Miss) | 17.5 | Sr |
| Elijah Harkless | 6-3, 195 | 10.0ppg, 4.1rpg(@Oklahoma) | 12.8 | Sr |
| Eli Parquet | 6-3, 195 | 6.9ppg, 2.4rpg | 10.4 | Sr |
| Jordan McCabe | 6-0, 185 | 6.4ppg 4.8apg | 10.8 | Sr |
| Jackie Johnson III | 5-11, 185 | 9.5ppg,1.2apg(@Duqusene) | 16.6 | So |
| Justin Webster | 6-3, 175 | 5.3ppg, 1.5rpg | 11.7 | Sr |
| Karl Jones | 6-10,250 | 10ppg, 8.5rpg (JUCO) | Jr | |
| Shane Nowell | 6-6, 210 | 0.8ppg(@Arizona) | So | |
| Isaiah Cottrell | 6-10, 240 | 4.2ppg, 2.8rpg(@WVU) | 8.1 | So |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 222 | Luis Rodriguez |
Bryce Hamilton is gone and with him his 21.8ppg. Donovon Williams also unexpectedly stayed in the draft which I originally missed. I don’t normally say this because staying a year usually never helps a player’s draft status contrary to popular belief. You are expected to improve generally anyway and most players do not improve enough to offset being older which is a huge negative in the draft. Williams however I believe would have benefited by being the primary scorer and could have put up a big season that would have gotten him more notice in draft circles. Simply playing more than 22 minutes a game would have helped him. He should have played more last season as one of their better players, so I don’t blame him for leaving or not trusting coming back.
UNLV went heavy on transfer to try to not only replace the void they left but to improve on a team that was underwhelming by their standards. The new transfer additions are ok but they could have a hard time scoring and are undersized on the perimeter especially. The post-play is also a little suspect as well on paper. Cottrell didn’t do anything at West Virginia and JUCO Karl Jones (10ppg 8rpg and 2.5bpg) feels more like depth. It appears David Muoka (2.7ppg, 3.8rpg 18.5 PER) has the highest upside. He was a 5.4ppg, 6.8rppg, 2.9bpg 15.2 PER at Lamar 2 seasons ago and not even as impactful there as he was at UNLV in his limited minutes. His efficiency was probably more from unsustainable shooting and better suited for a similar backup role. They probably need him to start considering the other centers.
There isn’t much that pops on this roster. Luis Rodriguez is a solid player but he’s not the kind I would project to go get you 15 points, 10 might be pushing it. Jackie Johnson seems to be the closest to that kind of player and he’s probably too small to play off the ball with McCabe much. I don’t see the player they can give the ball to and expect to score like Hamilton or Williams. McCabe will have his work cut out for him trying to find all these dependent scorers’ shots.
9. Nevada
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 182 | Jarod Lucas |
Nevada wasn’t very well last year (#125 NET) and now they lose their 3 best players. Players that I think are seriously good players going to places like Oklahoma and Arizona State. They were able to add Jarrod Lucas from Oregon State but he is more of a dependent scorer than a guy you can give the ball to and make things happen like Cambridge or Sheffield were for them. Will Baker and Kenan Blackshear are the main contributors returning. I believe Baker can and will step into a much bigger role and play very well after averaging 11.4ppg 4.9rpg 19.4 PER. No more splitting time with Warren Washington it’s his center position. Nevada will be competitive but I don’t see a lot of movement up. They did add Hunter McIntosh from Elon who averaged 15.7ppg, 2.3apg on a 17.2 PER two seasons ago there but he wasn’t as well last year.
10. San Jose State
San Jose returns everyone essentially off of a team that was #293 last year. This is simply hoping to get better off of year-over-year improvement and continuity. There isn’t much else to say, if you saw the team last year it’s pretty much the same team returning one of the worst offenses and defenses in the nation. They were 95th in three-point shooting last year too on top-50 volume, so I’m not sure what they do to improve beyond just getting better. The shooting luck could even regress. I’ll give them the edge slightly over Air Force simply because there is so much continuity.
11. Air Force
Air Force wasn’t much better than San Jose last year at #264 NET. It’s a service academy trying to recruit basketball players, so I get the plight. They have to replace their best player and will need to do that internally with their 20-player roster. There isn’t a way to microwave it with JUCOs or transfers at the academies, and you don’t get lucky too often with a guy like David Robinson growing 6 inches in the off-season. They do have discipline and a system that zigs while most are zagging and I do expect some improvement in year 3 just by the way they play and it is different from other schools. Joe Scott is one of the few coaches to win at Air Force and I think they take a small step forward in the 3rd year of his 2nd tenure.
