The Pac-12 appears to be really down this season, so much so that I think the AAC has an opportunity to be ranked higher in the NET rankings at the end of the season. The conferences seem very comparable overall and the Pac-12 certainly projects to be on a tier lower than the other P5 conferences. Whereas there were about 20 or more players from all the other power conferences in the top 200 of my ADJ eff model, there were not even 20 in the top 300 in the Pac-12 returning. It’s been a rough summer for the conference with UCLA and USC leaving to play in the Big Ten and the midwest and east coast. The prospects this winter do not seem any brighter for league basketball.
Here are our national ranks so you can see the tiers we have each of these teams on.
Pac 12 Basketball Standings
| Tiers | National Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | UCLA | PAC 12 |
| 13 | Arizona | PAC 12 |
| 22 | Oregon | PAC 12 |
| 47 | Arizona State | PAC 12 |
| 59 | Stanford | PAC 12 |
| 71 | USC | PAC 12 |
| 80 | Washington | PAC 12 |
| 90 | Utah | PAC 12 |
| 91 | Washington State | PAC 12 |
| 119 | Colorado | PAC 12 |
| 143 | California | PAC 12 |
| 277 | Oregon State | Pac 12 |
Instead of an All-Conference team, I’ve listed the Top Returning Players by Peak Adjusted Efficiency for SOS. Most will likely come from this list anyway, but the awards are more team driven. I’m more interested in who is doing the most when they are on the court. The players can’t control the team that was put around them. If they are putting up tangible numbers at top efficiency per possession on bad teams, that is more impressive to me. It’s coming under more pressure and game planning for them, with less viable options around them to take the pressure off. This list encompasses the players that have been the best on a D1 court going into the season.
| ADJ eff | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Azuolas Tubelis | Arizona |
| 26 | Jaime Jaquez | UCLA |
| 57 | Branden Carlson | Utah |
| 60 | Warren Washington | Arizona State |
| 79 | Spencer Jones | Stanford |
| 114 | Keion Brooks | Washington |
| 132 | Tyger Campbell | UCLA |
| 133 | Desmond Cambridge | Arizona State |
| 139 | Justin Powell | Washington State |
| 144 | Will Richardson | Oregon |
| 191 | Mike Jones | Stanford |
| 211 | Drew Peterson | USC |
| 223 | Noah Williams | Washington |
| 255 | Keeshawn Barthelemy | Oregon |
| 261 | Quincy Guerier | Oregon |
| 274 | Harrison Ingram | Stanford |
| 279 | Ethan Wright | Colorado |
| 294 | Marco Anthony | Utah |
(Last year’s NET, Seed, and Tournament Finish are on the top header line for reference. Deep bench players are not listed, only those in the projected rotation. I also included player ADJ eff rankings. ADJ eff Rankings and qualifying explanation here.)
1. UCLA
| UCLA | 11 NET | 4 seed | PER | S16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adem Bona | 6-9, 225 | 5* | Fr | |
| Jaime Jaquez | 6-6, 220 | 13.9ppg, 5.7rpg | 22.4 | Sr |
| Jaylen Clark | 6-5, 195 | 6.7ppg, 3.8rpg | 20.7 | Sr |
| David Singleton | 6-4, 210 | 4.8ppg, 1.5rpg | 15.1 | Gr |
| Tyger Campbell | 5-11, 180 | 11.9ppg, 4.3apg | 18.2 | Sr |
| Amari Bailey | 6-4, 187 | 5* | Fr | |
| Dylan Andrews | 6-5, 190 | 4* | Fr | |
| Mac Etienne | 6-9, 230 | 2.6ppg, 2.8rpg (2021) | 12.5 | So |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 26 | Jaime Jaquez |
| 132 | Tyger Campbell |
Jaquez seems ready for a starring role, and with the team success I expect UCLA to have, I have him projected first team All American team currently. Clark was highly productive per possession and should have no problem moving into a starting role after Juzang vacates. UCLA should expect to lose some shooting from Juzang but Singleton should be able to offset it. If Bernard had returned as most expected, I would have had their 1 through 4 spots rated the best in the nation with the center spot with Bona the only question mark. I do believe Singleton can move in for Bernard in the starting lineup, but it compromises the depth.
Bona has the 5-star recruiting pedigree, but the inexperience in the age of the super senior where most everyone is a year older than their class something to consider. When you look around at 4th and 5th-year type guys like Tshiebwe, Bacot, Jackson-Davis, and Timme who project to be leading some of the other top teams in the nation it only exacerbates that concern even as good of a prospect as he may be.
I especially worry about him in a potential match-up with those guys in March. Bona will have one with Tshiebwe early in the season which might be telling. If he holds up, I will feel much better about this team moving forward. Bona averaged about 15ppg, 10rpg 4bpg in high school for reference. If he can rebound and defend the rim adequately, then UCLA seems in good shape because they should have enough offense 1 through 4.
2. Arizona
| Arizona | 4 NET | 1 seed | PER | S16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Ballo | 7-0, 260 | 6.8ppg 4.4rpg | 24.1 | So |
| Azuolas Tubelis | 6-11, 245 | 13.9ppg, 6.2rpg | 24.4 | Jr |
| Pelle Larsson | 6-5, 208 | 7.2ppg 3.4rpg | 14.4 | Jr |
| Courtney Ramey | 6-3, 185 | 9.4ppg, 3.5rpg | 13 | Jr |
| Kerr Kriisa | 6-3, 180 | 9.7ppg, 4.7apg | 11.7 | Jr |
| Cedric Henderson | 6-6, 190 | 14.0ppg, 5.6rpg(@Campbell) | 18.2 | Jr |
| Adama Bal | 6-6, 190 | 1.5ppg | 12.1 | So |
| Shane Nowell | 6-6, 210 | 0.8ppg | 5.5 | So |
| Dylan Anderson | 7-0, 215 | 4* | Fr | |
| Filip Borovicanin | 6-8, 180 | 3* | Fr |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 19 | Azuolas Tubelis |
Tubelis is one of the best players in the country. Two weeks ago depth is a concern but they were able to add a couple of contributors and this team now look a lot more formidable. Having an experienced PG should help some in whip this team into shape, but they certainly need one depth PG piece moving forward I thought a month ago, they did that landing Ramey. He isn’t spectacular but he does solify the depth and gives them another experienced solid player who can handle the ball well and make three’s respectable. They were also able to get Cedric Henderson from Campbell who has been a 15ppg scorer to solidify the wing depth. It almost feels like buyout candidates in the NBA coming in to fill out the roster.
The Pac-12 appears a little down this season, especially at the bottom, and someone has to win those games. Arizona still seems to be the most equipped outside of UCLA. Having a great big and experience point guard to get him the ball is a nice floor-raiser and starting point to build on. Ballo is ready for more as it appears as well. It has the makings of a big-time 1-2 punch in the post. Had he played enough to qualify he would be top 30 in ADJ eff as well.
3. Oregon
| Oregon | 76 NET | NIT | PER | 2R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N’Faly Dante | 6-11, 230 | 8.1ppg, 6.3rpg | 24.8 | Sr |
| Quincy Guerier | 6-7, 220 | 10.1ppg, 5.3rpg | 16 | Sr |
| Tyrone Williams | 6-5, 200 | 27.7ppg, 7.5rpg (JUCO) | Jr | |
| Will Richardson | 6-5, 180 | 14.1ppg, 3.6apg | 19.3 | Gr |
| Jermaine Couisnard | 6-4, 211 | 12.0ppg, 3.2appg(@S.Caro) | 14.1 | Sr |
| Keeshawn Barthelemy | 6-2, 163 | 11.1ppg, 2.4apg(@Colorado) | 16.8 | Jr |
| Rivaldo Soares | 6-6, 205 | 4.7ppg, 2.7rpg | 11.1 | Sr |
| Brennen Rigsby | 6-3, 180 | 11.6ppg 3.6rpg (JUCO) | Jr | |
| Kel’el Ware | 7-0, 210 | 5* | Fr | |
| Dior Johnson | 6-3, 180 | 4* | Fr |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 144 | Will Richardson |
| 255 | Keeshawn Barthelemy |
| 261 | Quincy Guerier |
This is pretty much a new team, but returning their best player unexpectedly is a huge help. I like the way it has been rebuilt around him. I had them ranked in the 30s but getting Richardson back helps push them forward. The proven depth is stout on this team and Williams should help take them places. I’m a little skeptical of most JUCOs as big difference makers in year 1 usually (see Soares), but when you average 28ppg at any level I think you got to be a pretty good player. Williams shot 43.5% from three on good volume so at worst he should be capable of being a solid shooting threat. With Richardson back, this projects to be a good shooting team now.
Hopefully for Oregon to take a bigger step Williams is more the 2nd coming of Duarte. Considering this is the same coach that recruited Duarte there I am going to trust him as the stats check out much better than they did for Soares. They add a proven D1 transfer backcourt and return solid help in the post. The addition of Ware is big but I doubt he will just be handed minutes as good as Dante was last season. If you rebuild enough that you can bring a player like Williams, Barthelemy, or Cousinard off the bench, you are in great shape. They may even want to play all 4 together around one of the solid defensive centers in a smaller “death” lineup to end games.
4. Arizona State
| Arizona State | 100 NET | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Washington | 7-1, 215 | 10.5ppg, 6.6rpg(@Nevada) | 22.9 | Sr |
| Devan Cambridge | 6-6, 215 | 8.9ppg, 3.6rpg(2021) | 11.3 | Sr |
| Desmond Cambridge | 6-4, 180 | 16.2ppg, 5.1rpg(@Nevada) | 20.2 | Gr |
| DJ Horne | 6-0, 175 | 12.5ppg, 2.9rpg | 13.1 | Jr |
| Marcus Bagley | 6-1, 200 | 10.4ppg, 4.0apg | 15.6 | Gr |
| Frankie Collins | 6-1, 185 | 2.8ppg, 1.4apg(@ Mich) | 8.7 | So |
| Luther Muhammad | 6-3, 185 | 5.2ppg, 2.3rpg | 7.8 | Gr |
| Alonzo Gaffney | 6-9, 200 | 4.2ppg, 3.6rpg | 11.1 | Sr |
| Enoch Boakye | 6-10, 240 | 2.0ppg, 3.5rpg | 9.8 | So |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 60 | Warren Washington |
| 133 | Desmond Cambridge |
This team was not very inspiring at first glance, but when I looked at what else was left at the bottom of the Pac 12 I concluded someone has to win games. I generally wouldn’t have thought some parts off a #125 NET Nevada would make them this level of the team, but they were some of the few good parts. They also get a little bonus for bringing in teammates and brothers which should help them get off to a little better start with early season chemistry that most teams with new pieces won’t have.
The roster just seems a lot better and there will still be enough strength at the top in the Pac 12 someone has to fall in this range. I would say having an experienced backcourt and continuity helps, but this offense was atrocious 328th last year. Washington and Desmond Cambridge should help at least help it run more efficiently. This team probably needs to get to an NCAA to save Hurley’s job and I think they are capable.
5. Stanford
| Stanford | 106 NET | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Keefe | 6-9 | 225 | 5.3 Pts, 4.8 Reb | 16.3 | Sr |
| Spencer Jones | 6-7 | 225 | 12.0 Pts, 4.5 Reb, | 20 | Sr |
| Harrison Ingram | 6-8 | 230 | 10.5 Pts, 6.7 Reb | 14.9 | Fr |
| Mike Jones | 6-5 | 210 | 11.8 Pts, 3.6 Reb | 18.4 | Sr |
| Michael O’Connell | 6-2 | 180 | 7.1 Pts,3.6 Ast | 9.9 | Jr |
| Brandon Angel | 6-8 | 210 | 7.7 Pts, 2.9 Reb | 14.7 | Jr |
| Maxime Raynaud | 7-1 | 235 | 4.5 Pts, 3.8 Reb | 18.1 | So |
| Isael Silva | 6-4 | 190 | 3.5 Pts, 1.2 Ast | 5.9 | So |
| Max Murrell | 6-9 | 200 | 2.4 Pts, 1.1 Reb | 6.9 | Jr |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 79 | Spencer Jones |
| 191 | Mike Jones |
| 274 | Harrison Ingram |
Stanford returns most of their important players and added a nice shooter from an NCAA top 45 Davidson team in Mike Jones. They should be improved but I’m not a big believer in Jerod Haase. I think Stanford will still have a ceiling on just how much improvement under his instruction. It’s a nice collection of talent but no one that is overwhelming. The continuity from a lot of returners should be the biggest advantage they have over most teams early. Ingram is inefficient but a nice passer for his size. Having a new shooter like Michael Jones will be a nice outlet from him to hit playing an inside out game.
6. USC
| USC | 40 NET | NCAA | 1R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Iwuchukwu | 7-0,220 | 5* | Fr | |
| Kijani Wright | 6-9, 235 | 4* | Fr | |
| Drew Peterson | 6-8, 185 | 12.4 Pts, 6.2 Reb | 17.9 | Sr |
| Reese Waters | 6-6, 210 | 4.8 Pts, 1.8 Reb | 15.3 | So |
| Boogie Ellis | 6-3, 180 | 12.5 Pts, 2.4 Ast | 15.5 | Sr |
| Tre White | 6-6, 190 | 4* | Fr | |
| Joshua Morgan | 6-11, 195 | 3.2 Pts, 2.9 Reb | 15.3 | Jr |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 211 | Drew Peterson |
Andy Enfield’s team is coming off a very strong NCAA season, but they only return 2 significant contributors. Drew Perterson (12.4 Pts, 6.2 Reb, 3.3 Ast, 17.9 PER) and Boogie Ellis (12.5 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 2.4 Ast 15.5 PER). Neither were that productive or efficient in the roles they had last season and will need to expand them for this team to keep pace. Isaiah Mobley will be tough to replace with what returns. 5 star top 25 incoming recruit Vince Iwuchukwu will have some big shoes to fill. He comes with the pedigree but he’s still just a freshman in college basketball that’s as old as it’s ever been with super seniors. If he can’t 4 star top 50 recruit Kijani Wright will have the next chance but more likely it will be by committee. It’s a strong freshman class overall but this teams just a little too young to expect the kind of season they are coming off off.
7. Washington
| Washington | 113 NET | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franck Kepnang | 6-11, 225 | 4.7ppg, 3.1rpg(@Oregon) | 16.3 | SO |
| Keion Brooks | 6-7, 205 | 10.8ppg, 4.4rpg(@Kentucky) | 18.9 | JR |
| Jamal Bey | 6-6, 210 | 9.4ppg, 4.1rpg | 10.9 | Sr |
| PJ Fuller | 6-4, 185 | 7.4ppg, 1.1apg | 10.4 | Jr |
| Noah Williams | 6-5, 187 | 14.1ppg, 2.7apg (@ Washington St 2021) | 17.5 | SR |
| Braxton Meah | 7-1, 250 | 2.2ppg, 2.2rpg(@Fresno St) | 14.1 | FR |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 114 | Keion Brooks |
| 223 | Noah Williams |
Adding Noah Williams was a nice get from rival Washington State within the conference. That return to Pullman should be interesting as should Kepnang going back to Oregon. Keion Brooks from Kentucky is the big add though. He had a nice productive role at Kentucky, the only explanation here is he was looking to expand that and become a leading man. He’s a good player but I don’t know that he’s good enough to carry this team to the places Washington fans are getting anxious to return to. It’s been an uninspiring trajectory for Mike Hopkins coming off a great start. They needed Brooks and Williams to tread water with the loss of Terrell Brown who averaged 21.7 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 4.3 Ast with 25.9 PER. Those are big shoes to fill just to maintain the 113th NET they were last year. I think there is enough added enough in the aggregate to be a little better, but not much.
8. Utah
| Utah | 133 NET | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branden Carlson | 7-0, 215 | 13.6 Pts, 6.0 Reb | 24.2 | JR |
| Marco Anthony | 6-5, 225 | 9.1 Pts, 7.0 Reb, | 16.1 | SR |
| Lazar Stefanovic | 6-7, 186 | 7.5 Pts, 2.8 Reb | 8.4 | FR |
| Gabe Madsen | 6-5, 195 | 6.7 Pts, 1.0 Reb | 12.5 | SO |
| Rollie Worster | 6-3, 200 | 7.5 Pts 3.1 Ast | 11.8 | SO |
| Mike Saunders | 6-0, 190 | 7.3 Pts, 2.7Ast | 12.6 | Jr |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 57 | Branden Carlson |
| 294 | Marco Anthony |
Carleson (13.6 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 1.6 Blks 24.4 PER) is pretty underrated as a player nationally. He gives Utah a nice starting point to build around. His defense is a little underwhelming but he was certainly not the weakest spot on last year’s #133 NET team. Also back is Marco Anthony giving Utah one of the best and most experienced 1-2 punches in the league. Continuity will have to lead to most of the improvements, that and Craig Smith becoming more acclimated to the Pac-12 in his 2nd go around. It’s not the step up from the MWC it has been in previous years, still, it will be helpful having more exposure to what he’s facing from certain coaches in this league he is now facing regularly. Most of the team returns and Utah was able to add Mike Saunders a transfer from Cincinnati with 7.3 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 2.7 Ast 12.6 PER who should help some.
9. Washington State
| Washgington State | 55 NET | NIT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mouhamed Gueye | 6-11, 210 | 7.4 Pts, 5.2 Reb | 17.3 | So |
| Dishon Jackson | 6-10, 210 | 6.0 Pts, 4.1 Reb | 20.1 | So |
| Andrej Jakimovski | 6-8, 215 | 5.4 Pts, 3.9 Reb | 13.3 | So |
| TJ Bamba | 6-5, 208 | 7.7 Pts, 3.4 Reb | 14.8 | Jr |
| Justin Powell | 6-6, 205 | 11.7 Pts, 4.7 Ast(@Auburn 2021) | 20.1 | Jr |
| DJ Rodman | 6-6, 215 | 4.2 Pts, 4.1 Reb | 13.5 | Sr |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 139 | Justin Powell |
Washington State seemed to be building pretty well and had a 55th-ranked NET team last year. Now they have to deal with attrition and start over. Kyle Smith was able to convince Mouhamed Gueye (7.4 Pts, 5.2 Reb 17.3 PER) to return after he entered the portal, but that’s about the only that went well. The biggest addition was Justin Powell from Tennessee who only played 14 minutes a game for them. Tennessee was a loaded team though so I wouldn’t worry too much about that. He had been very good at Auburn the season before, although Auburn as a team wasn’t good with a losing record. Powell averaged 11.7 Pts, 6.1 Reb, 4.7 Ast and they are going to need that and probably a lot more to stay competitive. This team has a little spunk to them. The size is excellent but I’m not sure the part fit the best and the overall depth is kind of weak. They might be the sleeper to move up from the bottom.
10. Colorado
| Colorado | 74 NET | NIT | 1R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Da Silva | 6-9, 217 | 9.4 Pts, 3.5 Reb | 14 | Jr |
| Maddox Daniels | 6-6, 211 | 5.3 Pts, 2.4 Reb (2021) | 12.4 | Sr |
| Nique Clifford | 6-5, 175 | 6.7 Pts, 4.6 Reb | 13.3 | Jr |
| Ethan Wright | 6-3, 180 | 14.7 Pts, 6.9 Reb (@ Princeton) | 21.1 | Sr |
| KJ Simpson | 6-2, 170 | 7.4 Pts, 2.7 Ast | 12.1 | So |
| Jalen Gabbidon | 6-5, 190 | 11.3 Pts, 3.6 Reb (@Yale) | 16.4 | Jr |
| Lawson Lovering | 7-0, 220 | 1.9 Pts, 1.9 Reb | 2.4 | So |
| Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
|---|---|
| 279 | Ethan Wright |
Ethan Wright was very good for Princeton, but even a down Pac-12 is far superior to the Ivy League. His 14.7 Pts, 6.9 Reb, 1.7 Ast 21 PER value was built a lot off of averaging 7 rebounds per game as a 6-3, 180lb guard. I can’t see him being as effective and while my adjusted efficiency model still has him in the top 300 if he’s your top player in a top 6 or 7 conference you are probably in the bottom half of the league. Tristan da Silva (9.4 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 2.0 Ast 14.0 PER) and KJ Simpson(7.4 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 2.7 Ast 12.4 PER) return but I have about as much faith in them as I do Wright to step into a bigger role. All three would be better suited as role players on good teams. Tad Boyle is a solid coach but this roster isn’t one I think you excel with. He’s probably able to keep them somewhat competitive and respectable but I can’t see much more than that. The size and rebound is suspect and Wright will have to help there.
11. California
The Mark Fox hire was always a strange one to me. If the guy couldn’t win at Georgia in 9 years what was going to change at California? I suppose the thinking was to get him back to the west coast where he had success in Nevada and things would go better. Still how much better are we talking here when Nevada is a program that is positioned well to have success in the MWC as one of the best programs. California is more of an uphill job in the Pac-12.
Cal has had a 163 average net since the NET was created 4 seasons ago. I can’t see them being much better this year as well. Gone off of a 150 NET team last year are the 2 best players in Jordan Shepard and Andre Kelly. In what has to be a blow Kelly transferred to the University of California
-Santa Barbara-
When you are losing your best player to UCSB in the Big West things aren’t going the best. I shouldn’t even say that as UCSB has been better than Cal lately though. They had a top 50 NET team just 2 seasons ago, but still, you get points. There isn’t much else to talk about, they have to try to figure a way to win with role players of a 150 NET team from last year and a 2ppg transfer from Texas. Good luck with that. I’m probably giving them too much credit with my 143rd-ranking projection talking through it.
12. Oregon State
This program is WOW. They followed up an Elite 8 run with a 3-28 (1-19) # 255 NET season. That’s almost amazing when you think about the turnaround they had. Even while the Elite 8 run was kind of a Cinderella to run as a 12 seed, it still has to be the biggest fall in history. This isn’t even the first fall Wayne Hinkle has had talent at Oregon State either. The only other time he took Oregon State to the NCAA he followed that season up with a 5-27 (1-17) season the next season. That’s pretty incredible you can hit that kinds of highs and lows in the same place.
Oregon State is a tough job no doubt but you would like to see some consistency or at least the bottom not completely fall out. He rebounded pretty nicely from the 5-27 season to go 16-16 last time but unfortunately for Oregon State, I don’t see that this time. I think at least on paper they managed to get worse losing their only bright spots in Lucas and Davis to Nevada and Mississippi State. Hinkle will be tasked to win with a handful of the 6ppg role players off the 3-28 team from last year or some freshman. The only addition of note really with any proven track record is Christian Wright who averaged 5ppg for a terrible Georgia team. This is as bad a preseason rank as you will ever see for a P6 team. I think it’s completely justified though.
