The evolution of college basketball in the NIL era has created a new dynamic where freshmen are finding it harder to dominate as in years past. Players like 24 year old Hunter Dickinson and Johni Broome, who might have moved on to professional leagues in previous years, now remain in college longer. NIL has also effectively consolidated the top talent across college basketball significantly the last two years as the money has increased, raising the overall competition level at and creating significant obstacles for young newcomers exacerbated by super seniors. This season’s freshman class has been touted as one of the best in decades, featuring the most heralded high school recruit since LeBron James. This class should give a good test to the theory.
The Numbers Tell the Story
Over the past two years, the struggles of freshmen have been apparent. A look at offensive rating statistics from KenPom underscores this trend:
2018-19 and 2019-20 Seasons: 14 true freshmen ranked in the top 100 for offensive rating each year. This was the last seasons prior to covid super senior era
2022-23 Season: Only 3 freshmen made the top 100.
2023-24 Season: Only 3 freshmen made the top 100
2024-25 Season (So Far): Seven freshmen are in the top 100 (but these numbers often dip once conference play begins and rotations tighten)
Similarly, playing time has remained relatively stable since 2020, but the percentage of minutes played by freshmen shows a decline in terms of high-impact contributions:
2019: Nine freshmen ranked in KenPom’s top 100 players for percentage of minutes played.
2022-23: Two freshmen achieved this feat.
2023-24: Only one freshman made the list.
2024-25 (So Far): Again, just one freshman ranks in this metric (when freshmen are usually getting more looks early).
Early Stats and the Road Ahead
It’s crucial to remember that most teams have played only six games this season. Many of these are “buy games” against weaker opponents, where freshmen get a chance to pad their stats and showcase their abilities. However, as conference play begins, rotations tighten, and the level of competition rises, freshmen often see their roles and production diminish some. There are some really bad SOS having been played so far.
There are 17 freshmen from the RSCI top 100 currently averaging double-digit scoring, even amidst the early-season buy games and general lack of competition. While freshmen will certainly become more comfortable as the season progresses, most are likely to see their scoring, efficiency, and minutes decrease during conference play. Overall, this group has been very efficient, with only three of the 17 posting an effective field goal percentage below .519. Notably, two of these are top-five recruits: Cooper Flagg and V.J. Edgecombe. Edgecombe’s lower efficiency is more defensible, as he has faced the 9th-strongest defensive strength of schedule on KenPom, compared to the 146th-ranked defensive SOS for Flagg.
Nearly half of the consensus Top 25 recruits are role players or DNP for competitive games.
As we transition from non-conference matchups to the grind of league play and better overall competition for most teams and star freshmen, the real test for this heralded freshman class will begin. Can they live up to their hype in an era dominated by seasoned veterans and consolidated talent? While the long term talent is undeniable, the structural dynamics of modern college basketball are making it harder than ever for first-year players to rise to the top. Early indications still signal that.
