Alex Sarr is the consensus number number one pick in current mock drafts. Donovan Clingan is being projected anywhere from 2nd to 7th, while Zach Edey is being mocked from the low 20s to high 40s. However, I like Zach Edey more than anyone in this draft. If I were the Atlanta Hawks, I would try to trade down to around the 15th pick, where I could ensure drafting him while gaining additional value. Let’s take a look at the case for why.
There is no denying that, based on athletic tests, Zach Edey is the best athlete of the three for his size. He’s running faster times or nearly as good pushing 75 more pounds than Sarr. Even when presented with the evidence, some national pundits still discount these results and call him slow. This despite him running these tests at the combine for two years and even improving his times this year. It’s just a myth they want to hold on to. His times both years in some of these drills outperformed stars like Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, and Derrick Rose, despite being 306.4 pounds at his first combine. That’s the facts.
Alex Sarr
Alex Sarr is the youngest of the top center prospects, which is certainly preferable, but he lacks the substance on his resume for a number one pick. He averaged 9.6 points per game (ppg), 5.7 rebounds per game (rpg), and 1.0 blocks per game (bpg) while shooting 45.8% from the field and 63% from the free-throw line at Overtime Elite in 2023. Then he followed that up with 9.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, and 1.4 bpg while shooting 51.6% from the field and 71% from the free-throw line, with a 21 Player Efficiency Rating (PER), in the Australian NBL.
The NBL is a professional league, but not a particularly strong one. Josh Giddey came out of the league recently at the same age, and he was playing a lot more (32 minutes vs. 17 minutes). Sarr was just a backup role player. Keanu Pinder , who was the starting center playing over him, averaged 2 ppg at Arizona. He’s 28 years old an in his prime, but this is not exactly inspiring for a number one pick to be logging minutes behind him. The good news was he was reasonable productive when he played at least. Still he wasn’t dominating the NBL and this is the number one pick?
If you are taking him on upside Sarr has never made above 28% from three in any league he has played in. While his free-throw shooting is trending in the right direction, and he has time, it’s not even certain that this improvement is 100% real. In 19 games in FIBA, his free-throw percentage was only 64%, almost identical to his performance at Overtime Elite. You need to check the free-throw shooting box before it’s believable that a player can develop into a good three-point shooter.
Donovan Clingan
Clingan can be similar in theory to Walker Kessler with more passing ability, although he never blocked shots at that rate in college; few have. Still, I think he can make an impact on defense right away. Unfortunately, I don’t like the fact that he shoots under 60% from the free-throw line. I doubt he can ever develop much of a jump shot or the ability to do anything but dunk around the rim. However, he is a solid passer for his size. The league has some really dominant big men, and Jokic isn’t likely going anywhere for a while, so having a quality defensive big to counteract players like Jokic and Wembanyama so in a weak draft Clingan still has value and is more of a known, I just don’t see a lot of offensive upside.
Zach Edey is the most dominant college player I’ve seen since I started watching basketball in 1989. Even early last year, when no one had him on any mock drafts in either round, I felt the same way. Even in his sophomore year, when he was playing just 19 minutes a game, you could see it. Considering the numerous busts every year, even in the top 5, the fact that he’s projected late 1st or early 2nd is insane to me. He has a better chance of making GMs look foolish for passing on him than busting, in my opinion.
Defense
If Brook Lopez, post back surgery, can be a dominant defender and finish second in Defensive Player of the Year voting at age 35, I believe Edey can be more than passable. Firstly, I think it’s a myth that he can’t play great defense. He anchored the 12th best defense on KenPom at Purdue. Athletically, he ran the 3-quarter sprint faster and had better lane agility than Lopez or Rudy Gobert did at 20 years old, and they are now great defenders despite being much slower in their 30s.
3 Pointers
When you can dunk the ball without jumping like Edey, I don’t think you necessarily need a three-point shot. However, he could eventually develop a three-pointer given his free-throw shooting ability, similar to Brook Lopez. Unlike most of these 7-4+ guys he’s a very good free throw shooter you can’t foul and send to the line. He is a career .706% free throw shooter at Purdue in nearly 1000 attempts. We know he is a pretty solid one. He’s also healthy unlike a lot of 7-4 players.
Conclusion
This draft would be easy for me if I had one of the top 5 picks. You trade down and take Zach Edey in the bottom half of the draft. I think Kel’el Ware, who we didn’t talk about, one could argue is just about as good of a prospect as Clingan or Sarr. He’s not even being mocked in the lottery either. Finally we just watched Edey put up 37 points and 10 rebounds dragging a pretty untalented team around him to the national championship game where he faced Clingan who played 31 minutes guarding him, and only had 11 and 5 in a national championship game head to head. I really don’t know what the guy has to do or run to get respect at this point.
