| Alabama | Alabama’s journey to the Final 4 last season was fueled by Mark Sears, Latrell Wrightsell, and Grant Nelson, who all return. Sears might face shooting regression this year (because he was so elite last year), but the additions of Clifford Omoruyi, Chris Youngblood, and Houston Mallette bring depth and talent to offset it. Alabama remains a force to reckon with, ranking #1 in our model. The addition of Omoruyi should bolster the defense, which was the only weakness last season. |
| Arkansas | Calipari’s rebuilding efforts at Arkansas center around cornerstones Jonas Aidoo and Johnell Davis. His ability to attract top-tier talent ensures Arkansas remains a formidable contender in college basketball. The bigger question, after observing Reed Shepard on the bench last year, is whether he will start and if the right players will get the necessary minutes. |
| Auburn | Auburn’s strength lies with Johni Broome, the top-ranked statistical player returning, and Coach Bruce Pearl. With Chad Baker-Mazara stepping into a more prominent role beyond his previous elite three-and-D status, Auburn remains a top 10 contender. Broome is the best player in the nation in our model and likely will be undervalued by some nationally. Hopefully Pearl will play him more than 25 minutes a game this season. Dylan Cardwell is very productive behind him, but he’s not Broome. |
| Florida | Florida’s strength is in their perimeter game with Walter Clayton, Alijah Martin, and Will Richard. They also have a nice group of bigs who were productive in limited minutes last season. |
| Georgia | Tyrin Lawrence is a significant addition as Mike White raises the team’s performance from where Tom Crean left off. That isn’t saying a whole lot however, and White parachuted in from Florida as his seat was getting hot. The program seems a bit unserious overall and likely will finish near the bottom again. Coming from where they came from being respectable again is a step in the right direction. |
| Kentucky | Many Kentucky fans seem disappointed with this hire, but this isn’t a Jon Scheyer situation. Pope went to Kentucky, but I appreciate that he worked his way up the coaching ladder on talent. He had two top 100 seasons at Utah Valley, and then he achieved three top 20 KenPom finishes in five years at BYU. That’s impressive, especially considering that one of those seasons came in the best conference in America this season, where they held their own. While BYU certainly has big time resources and support, Pope has done a commendable job, and I appreciate their emphasis on shooting a lot of threes and playing in a way with upside. The only criticism is the two first-round exits with top 20 type of teams in the metrics. Kentucky, under Pope, represents a modern approach to the game. The team’s talent and depth are impressive. Andrew Carr is the most likely to emerge as a top player, with Jaxson Robinson providing an advantage due to his previous experience with Pope at BYU. |
| LSU | LSU is still finding its footing under Matt McMahon. This year’s roster is less impressive than it has been the previous two seasons under McMahon particularly in the post play. This easily should be the worst team in the SEC. |
| Miss State | Losing T. Smith is a setback for Mississippi State defense, but they have talent and continuity to build on. Josh Hubbard, their top returning player, was one of the best freshman last year in the country. With Cameron Matthews he forms one of the best inside outside duo’s. |
| Missouri | Missouri is aiming for a comeback after a disastrous season by adding Tony Perkins and Mark Mitchell.. With Tamar Bates returning and potentially Caleb Grill coming back, the team has a mix of proven talent and upside. While there’s potential for an NCAA tournament appearance, last season’s struggles still cast a shadow that can’t be ignored. |
| Oklahoma | The NIL situation for Porter Moser is unclear, and the roster is underwhelming. Jalon Moore projects as the best player. Moser is a proven coach with a relatively high floor, but this Oklahoma team is likely to finish near the bottom of their new conference. Their biggest advantage might be the element of surprise, as the league is unfamiliar with both Moser and the program. |
| Ole Miss | Ole Miss’ offseason acquisitions have added both talent and depth. With Coach Chris Beard at the helm and the addition of Dre Davis,, the team has considerable potential, though there are still concerns about their defense. Former assistant Mark Adams has joined Beard’s staff, which should help address those defensive issues. Ultimately, it comes down to depth; with as many quality proven players as they have, they should be able to figure it out. |
| South Carolina | Last year was an overachievement, and they now have to replace much of their roster. They do return one of the best players in the league, Collin Murray-Boyles but the talent gets a lot more thin after. It wouldn’t shock me to see some regression. |
| Tennessee | Tennessee’s roster features returning players and promising additions, with Zakai Zeigler leading at PG. While replacing lost talent is a challenge, Tennessee’s depth and defensive prowess have offered long-term stability. They seem to have some nice internal development and more recently have found key transfers. Chaz Lanier adds intrigue to Tennessee’s prospects. He doesn’t rate highly in our model but this is one instance where what he does at such and elite level I do believe could translate. At worst he will have the attention of the defense the way he shoots threes. |
| Texas | Texas has talent, but coaching is a question mark. Kadin Shedrick’simpact heavily depends on his utilization. If this is the season a coach finally plays him 25 minutes a game, he could be All-SEC. No coach has played Shedrick as much as his statistical impact has warranted, which has been puzzling. Despite these uncertainties, Texas has the talent and depth to compete, though concerns about their guard play remain. |
| Texas A&M | Texas A&M is looking to bounce back from last season’s underperformance by returning key players like Wade Taylor and adding depth to their roster. However, optimizing player roles and minimizing rotations will be crucial for their success. Buzz Williams tends to play too many players, which could limit the team’s ceiling. Much of their value is tied up in the post positions, where they may end up being less than the sum of their parts since only two can play at a time. Replacing Tyrece Radford is a significant challenge, but Zhuric Phelps will help fill that void, though both struggled with shooting last season. |
| Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt’s rapid rebuild under Mark Byington is impressive. A.J. Hoggard and Jason Edwards form a strong backcourt duo. Vanderbilt is positioned for a strong season with a deep roster led by one of the best point guards in the nation. The program’s ability to lure away Tom Izzo’s top player and senior PG highlights the changing dynamics in college basketball. While there are some concerns about post play, the success of Byington at JMU last season and the talent he has amassed in the offseason make it hard not to rate Vanderbilt highly. This team has the potential to make significant waves in the upcoming season. |
