Connect with us

NBA

Cracking the Code: NBA ADJeff – Enhancing Player Assessment

We’ve dedicated our efforts to refining our statistical analysis, and we’ve identified a metric that we believe effectively encapsulates player value. This metric is essentially a fusion of Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and Defensive Rating. PER remains a reliable statistic; for instance, when describing a player as having a 25 PER, those familiar with advanced stats would immediately grasp the statistical significance. Likewise, characterizing a player as an 11 PER players would convey specific statistical information most would understand the level of that palyer. We’ve addressed the primary criticism of PER by integrating a stronger defensive component. Our choice of Defensive Rating, a well-respected metric, helps fortify the statistical model. The balance we’ve struck between these two metrics appears to be appropriate.

Applying our new NBA ADJeff to the past five seasons reveals significant changes. It demonstrates how players with lower defensive ratings, such as Luka or Damian Lillard, are notably impacted in the rankings. Conversely, players like Anthony Davis experience an elevation in their ranking due to the augmented importance of Defensive Rating.

2022-23DRtgPERNBA
ADJeff
1Nikola JokicDEN106.231.57.42
2Joel ImbiidPHI109.031.47.18
3Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL107.828.66.63
4Anthony DavisLAL106.527.46.43
5Luka DoncicDAL113.228.66.32
6Jimmy ButlerMIA112.427.56.12
7Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC113.327.15.98
8Kevin DurantPHX110.925.75.79
9Zion WilliamsonNOP11124.65.54
10Damian LillardPOR120.226.65.53
11Jayson TatumBOS110.623.45.29
12Kawhi LeonardLAC112.823.75.25
13Ja MorantMEM112.223.25.17
14LeBron JamesLAL113.823.55.16
15Stephen CurryGSW114.923.75.16
16Donovan MitchellCLE111.422.85.12
17Kristaps PorzingisWAS112.722.95.08
18Domantas SabonisSAC114.323.25.07
19Jaren Jackson, Jr.MEM105.321.35.06
20Tyrese HaliburtonIND117.323.55.01
2021-22DRtgPERNBA
ADJeff
1Nikola JokicDEN104.932.87.82
2Joel EmbiidPHI104.931.27.50
3Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL10631.27.36
4Rudy GobertUTA102.424.45.96
5Luka DoncicDAL107.424.95.80
6LeBron JamesLAL111.825.95.79
7Kevin DurantBRK110.725.15.67
8Anthony DavisLAL105.723.35.51
9Jimmy ButlerMIA107.523.45.44
11Jarrett AllenCLE104.622.75.43
12Karl-Anthony TownsMIN110.223.95.42
13Robert WilliamsBOS102.3225.38
14Ja MorantMEM113.924.45.36
15Kristaps PorzingisWAS108.523.25.35
16Trae YoungATL118.625.15.29
17Bam AdebayoMIA104.421.65.17
18Deandre AytonPHX105.821.65.10
19Jayson TatumBOS106.621.65.07
2020-21DRtgPERNBA
ADJeff
1Joel EmbiidPHI103.930.37.29
2Nikola JokicDEN109.231.37.11
3Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL108296.71
4Jimmy ButlerMIA10726.56.19
5Kawhi LeonardLAC10925.95.94
6Stephen CurryGSW110.5265.88
7Zion WilliamsonNOP115.3275.85
8Rudy GobertUTA100.823.45.80
9LeBron JamesLAL105.324.15.72
10Kevin DurantBRK112.925.85.71
11Clint CapelaATL106.824.35.69
12Jonas ValanciunasMEM10824.35.63
13Luka DoncicDAL111.825.15.61
14James HardenBRK112.724.75.48
15Damian LillardPOR118.825.55.37
16Kyrie IrvingBRK114.224.45.34
17Anthony DavisLAL104.2225.28
18Nikola VucevicCHI109.522.85.21
19Bam AdebayoMIA109.322.65.17
20Karl-Anthony TownsMIN113.4235.07
2019-20DRtgPERNBA
ADJeff
1Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL96.431.88.25
2James HardenHOU108.329.16.72
3Anthony DavisLAL10227.46.72
4Kawhi LeonardLAC104.626.96.43
5Luka DoncicDAL110.227.76.28
6Joel EmbiidPHI103.525.66.18
7Karl-Anthony TownsMIN111.926.75.97
8LeBron JamesLAL106.525.45.96
9Hassan WhitesidePOR106.725.15.88
10Kyrie IrvingBRK111.5265.83
11Damian LillardPOR117.1275.76
12Nikola JokicDEN108.424.95.74
13Jimmy ButlerMIA107.723.75.50
14Montrezl HarrellLAC107.123.15.39
15Andre DrummondCLE102.621.85.31
16John CollinsATL111.723.55.26
17Rudy GobertUTA10421.85.24
18Jonas ValanciunasMEM106.922.35.22
19Zion WilliamsonNOP113.123.35.15
2018-19DRtgPERNBA
ADJeff
1Anthony DavisNOP101.928.87.07
2James HardenHOU105.529.87.06
3LeBron JamesCLE109.228.56.52
4Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL107.127.36.37
5Stephen CurryGSW108.427.66.37
6Hassan WhitesideMIA97.423.96.13
7Clint CapelaHOU100.524.46.07
8Kevin DurantGSW107.825.96.01
9LaMarcus AldridgeSAS105.825.15.93
10Russell WestbrookOKC104.724.85.92
11Kyrie IrvingBOS106.424.95.85
12Karl-Anthony TownsMIN107.524.95.79
13Damian LillardPOR108.725.15.77
14Chris PaulHOU105.624.35.75
15Joel EmbiidPHI100.423.15.75
16Andre DrummondDET99.122.85.75
17Nikola JokicDEN107.324.45.68
18DeMarcus CousinsNOP102.922.85.54
19Victor OladipoIND103.522.95.53
20Jimmy ButlerMIN10923.85.46

Some Historical Examples

Of course we must remember the offenses of the last couple of years have never been as strong. They keep breaking records so that would need to be adjusted to an average to look back historically. Still this seems to check out when you run it through some all-time greats best seasons where Defensive Rating was available.

Michael Jordan

JordanDRtgPERNBA
ADJeff
1987-88CHI102.131.77.76
1990-91CHI102.331.57.71
1988-89CHI103.631.17.51
1995-96CHI100.529.57.34
1989-90CHI106.131.07.31
1992-93CHI102.829.87.24
1986-87CHI104.829.77.09
1991-92CHI102.227.76.78
1996-97CHI102.527.76.77
1985-86CHI10727.86.50
1997-98CHI100.325.36.30
1984-85CHI106.925.86.04
1994-95CHI103.921.95.27
2001-02WAS104.121.05.03
2002-03WAS103.219.44.69

LeBron James

LeBronDRtgPERNBA
ADJeff
2008-09CLE99.431.77.97
2011-12MIA98.330.87.84
2012-13MIA101.431.57.76
2009-10CLE102.131.17.61
2007-08CLE103.829.06.99
2013-14MIA10528.96.89
2010-11MIA101.927.46.72
2015-16CLE102.327.56.71
2017-18CLE109.228.56.52
2016-17CLE108.526.96.20
2014-15CLE104.525.96.18
2006-07CLE100.624.46.06
2023-24LAL104.925.46.05
2019-20LAL106.525.45.96
2018-19LAL108.725.75.92
2021-22LAL111.825.95.78
2020-21LAL105.324.15.72
2022-23LAL113.823.55.16

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

KareemDRtgPERNBA
ADJeff
1977-78LAL93.829.37.81
1975-76LAL9027.27.56
1976-77LAL92.527.97.54
1974-75MIL92.426.47.14
1973-74MIL89.124.46.85
1978-79LAL9825.46.48
1980-81LAL101.525.76.33
1979-80LAL100.425.36.30
1981-82LAL103.823.55.66
1982-83LAL104.323.65.66
1984-85LAL105.722.95.42
1985-86LAL106.322.65.32
1983-84LAL106.921.34.98
1986-87LAL107.417.94.17
1987-88LAL107.415.83.68
1988-89LAL10812.92.99

NBA ADJeff

NBA ADJeff rankings as well as raw stats will be available throughout the season at the link below. These are the current standings as of today 6% of the season in.

Nov
4th
DRtgPERNBA
ADJeff
1Joel EmbiidPHI103.8317.47
2Nikola JokicDEN106.231.27.34
3Donovan MitchellCLE105.830.77.25
4Paul GeorgeLAC105.330.27.17
5Stephen CurryGSW111.330.96.94
6Jayson TatumBOS105.228.96.87
7Luka DoncicDAL112.929.26.47
8Anthony DavisLAL104.726.56.33
9Devin BookerPHX118.928.96.08
10Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC105.824.35.74
11Deandre AytonPOR9821.95.59
12Derrick WhiteBOS107.924.15.58
13Kristaps PorzingisBOS104.823.45.58
14Tyrese MaxeyPHI111.424.85.57
15Chet HolmgrenOKC109.724.25.52
16De’Aaron FoxSAC113.724.75.43
17Domantas SabonisSAC107.823.25.38
18Scottie BarnesTOR104.122.25.33
19LeBron JamesLAL107.222.65.27
20Day’Ron SharpeBRK104.221.95.25
21Jalen DurenDET107.822.35.17
22Kawhi LeonardLAC106.5225.16
23C.J. McCollumNOP108.222.15.11
24Alperen SengunHOU116.523.45.02
25Tyrese HaliburtonIND112.722.65.01
Stat Leaders

College

At the collegiate level, our player ratings are primarily founded on efficiency adjusted by strength of schedule (SOS). While our current methodology proves effective at identifying the best players in the nation, incorporating a defensive rating could fortify the statistical analysis. Here, we present several examples from the previous season. In our initial assessment, Dickenson was on par with Dante in basic ADJeff and surpassed Broome. However, considering the lower defensive rating from the prior year, he would fall behind in the New ADJeff. Jahmir Young and Kolek were graded as the most efficient guards when adjusted for SOS. Integrating the defensive component propels Young ahead and elevates Taylor some as well.

*Adjusted by SOS as well.

DRtgPER*New
ADJeff
Zach EdeyPURD93.640.29.12
N’Faly DanteOREG94.129.17.35
Ryan KalkbrennerCREI96.927.47.08
Johni BroomeAUB92.227.87.00
Hunter DickinsonMICH9729.16.53
Tolu SmithMISST92.528.75.19
Jahmir YoungUMD97.722.94.89
Tyler KolekMarq100.123.14.62
Wade Taylor IVTAMU98.3244.53
Boogie EllisUSC10022.14.42
Cam SpencerRUTG91.6224.39
Steven AshworthUSU102.323.23.86
Jaelen HouseUNM95.426.13.57
Isaiah StevensCOLST115.223.22.95

Players who operate around the basket, or specifically post players, often hold higher rankings in these assessments in college. The truth remains that they represent crucial elements in college basketball today. They are regarded as the most dominant players because they are. Many among them are older, not particularly sought after by the NBA due to their ground-bound style, yet they excel in college securing high-efficiency shots around the rim. Additionally, they form a pivotal part of the majority of defensive strategies anchoring most defenses. In essence, without bigs achieving 20 PERs, maintaining a 60% true shooting rate, and boasting Defensive ratings in the 90s, teams begin at a disadvantage.

Guards undeniably possess the potential to make a significant impact; however, they must bring substantial value, a challenge many perimeter players in college often grapple with. For instance, Jimmer Fredette serves as an exemplar, ranking among the all-time greatest in PER (Player Efficiency Rating) seasons. Notably, Steph Curry and Damian Lillard also achieved a remarkable 35 PER seasons. Nevertheless, in the NBA, numerous guards excel in these statistics, with Michael Jordan leading the ranks. It’s entirely possible for guards to rank if they actually have the stats.

In collegiate play, guards typically do not exhibit the same level of per-possession statistics, mainly because their skill sets are more repeatable we theorize. Moreover, there exists a scarcity of highly talented big individuals worldwide. Their value significantly increases if they excel in multiple essential skills at the college level with such an expansive need with 362 teams.

Perhaps the challenge for college guards arises from the different dynamics, potentially influenced by factors such as the shorter three-point line and less space as well. However, in theory, they should also be more capable of making additional successful three-point shots. It’s something to consider but we have no problem with the rankings valuing bigs because in college they clearly are the most valuable players currently on both sides of the ball.

More in NBA