Back in July 2022, I put together one of my earliest pieces: a bold set of predictions on where current NBA players would stand in both three and five years. Importantly, I focused only on players who were already in the league at the time — no projecting future draft picks beyond the 2022 class. To ground these forecasts, I leaned on Player Efficiency Rating (PER), a stat adjusted to the league average, which helps cut through the noise of shifting roles, team changes, and minute fluctuations — especially important amid the offensive explosion of the past three years. My aim wasn’t just to guess who might get traded to a contender or come off the bench, but to estimate how each player’s impact would perform on a per-possession basis — a measure that, as expected, has remained meaningful, since most of these players have continued to log high-usage minutes. I focused on players who were either aging out or peaking, in most cases. There aren’t many static examples from three years ago. Now, nearly three years later, it’s time to look back and see how those predictions are holding up.
Perfectly projected. To nail LeBron’s PER at age 40 is a feat in itself. Especially coming from a 26.2 PER. We saw the decline we expected. Most projections fade players in their late 30s, but LeBron defies aging curves, and this prediction respected that. Spot on.
Stephen Curry – Predicted: 21.5 | Actual: 21.5
Another perfect hit. Curry, like LeBron, has maintained his efficiency despite age and injuries. Accurately pegging his production in his age-36 season proves the model’s ability to forecast aging superstars. Pretty impressive considering he actually improved from his 21.4 in 2022 to call it.
Paolo Banchero – Predicted: 19.5 | Actual: 20.0
Elite rookie projection. Banchero hadn’t played an NBA game when this prediction was made. To be within half a point of his 2025 PER shows an excellent read on his NBA readiness and usage. One of the most impressive hits on the board.
Domantas Sabonis – Predicted: 23.0 | Actual: 22.6
Consistent productivity. Sabonis isn’t flashy, but he’s remarkably steady. This prediction nailed his continued impact as a high-efficiency, high-usage big.
Smooth operator. Haliburton has blossomed into a lead guard with elite efficiency, and this prediction forecasted that trajectory almost perfectly the accent, who was only coming off an 18.2 PER season in 2022
Anthony Davis – Predicted: 25.0 | Actual: 25.9
Still elite. Health questions aside, AD has remained dominant when on the court. Predicting him to remain a top-tier PER guy in 2025 proved accurate which is a big win considering he only had a 23.9 PER in 2022 and was not healthy. We projected a higher PER in a season he should be on the decline factoring that in.
Anthony Edwards – Predicted: 19.0 | Actual: 19.9
Right on track. Edwards has developed steadily into a two-way star. The prediction captured his growth curve as a rising franchise player who only had a 16.5 PER in 2022. As expected we didn’t see anything crazy and nailed the projection basically. Overrated BTW.
Chet Holmgren – Predicted: 19.0 | Actual: 18.8
Not a bad prediction for a player who hadn’t played a game in the NBA at the time.
I didn’t see this rise coming of a 20.9 PER season in 2022, which was an actual slight regression from 21.8 in 2021. To make the leap he has from his age 23 season to this isn’t a typical progression for sure. It’s all time type of stuff. Certainly the LA Clippers never saw this coming either.
Trae Young – Predicted: 27.5 | Actual: 18.1
This one is pretty wild having just come off a 25.4 PER season in 2022 to fall this far by age 26. Especially while still on the same team, in the same role essentially.
Ja Morant – Predicted: 27.0 | Actual: 19.3
We always expected Morant as a smaller guard that relies on athleticism to decline with age. However I wouldn’t have expected it to be his age 25 season. This is the year when we expected him to peak having already posted a 24.8 PER in 2022. I would be trying to trade him ASAP.
Joel Embiid – Predicted: 29.0 | Actual: 22.8
Injuries have held Embiid back from reaching the MVP-level performance expected from him.
Bam Adebayo – Predicted: 24.5 | Actual: 18.6
A strange drop to go from 21.8 in 2022 to 18.6 in what should be the prime of his career at 27 years old. .
Deandre Ayton – Predicted: 23.5 | Actual: 17.8
Not the trajectory we expected for a former number one draft pick.
Chris Paul – Predicted: 20.0 | Actual: 14.7
Paul’s decline has led to a significant drop in his PER. We expected more of an aging like John Stockton or Steven Nash that just hasn’t happened.
Luka Dončić – Predicted: 29.0 | Actual: 24.0
Though still a top player, Dončić’s health, fitness and a new team hasn’t hindered the expected growth. He did hit a 28.7 in 2023, and 28.1 in 2024. I think this projection was good, but fell into a more unlucky year.
Devin Booker – Predicted: 24.0 | Actual: 19.0
Booker’s really stalled keeping his PER well under expectations. He was at a 21.3 in 2022, and should be in the prime of his career, yet we’ve seen regression.
Keegan Murray – Predicted: 22.0 | Actual: 12.0
Murray’s development hasn’t gone as planed. He was a PER beast in college, but that’s not translated to the NBA.
Conclusion
As we look back on these projections, it’s clear that the NBA landscape can shift in unexpected ways. While some predictions proved to be spot on, others were hindered by injuries, changing roles, and unforeseen circumstances. Some of which are just weird like the regression of T. Young, Morant, Bam, and others. These projections offer a valuable lens through which to evaluate player development, but they also remind us of the unpredictability of the game. With the next few years likely bringing more surprises, it’ll be interesting to see how these players continue to evolve and how future projections stack up against reality. The key takeaway? In the ever-evolving NBA, staying ahead of the curve is as much about adapting to change as it is about predicting the future. We’ll circle back in two years to see how our 5 year out projections are doing.
