Two years ago, Jimmy Butler was on a tear in the NBA playoffs, showcasing an all-time great level of play at age 33. The Miami Heat, an 8th-seed underdog, took a commanding 2-0 lead over the Boston Celtics, and all eyes were on Butler as he single-handedly carried his team to the cusp of an Eastern Conference Finals berth before an injury eventually slowed him. Fast forward to today, and while some detractors may claim his best days are behind him, the numbers say otherwise. The narrative that Butler’s decline has happened us is overblown. In fact, even the ‘Playoff Jimmy’ phenomenon shouldn’t yet be dead, and his current game still has plenty of juice left, even if it’s operating at 85 or 90% of the dominance we saw just 2 years ago.
Playoff Jimmy
One of the most striking aspects of Jimmy Butler’s career has been his ability to elevate his game when the stakes are highest. While many players see their production dip in the playoffs, Butler tends to rise. This trend was evident in 2022 when he averaged 29 points per game in the postseason, up from 22 points in the regular season. But the numbers don’t stop there. Jimmy had six 40-point games over the course of the 2022 and 2023 postseasons—something he hadn’t done in the regular season since 2017. That kind of leap in scoring is rare, particularly at his age, and shows a player who thrives under pressure and who probably paces himself for those moments.
In 2022, Butler’s three-point shooting became one of the more intriguing storylines. Historically a 32% shooter from beyond the arc, he shot a respectable 35% in the playoffs and seemingly has much more confidence taking them.
A Smarter Jimmy Butler
Jimmy Butler’s growth over the years has been remarkable. Drafted 30th overall, he entered the league as a defensive specialist with modest offensive numbers. But as his career progressed, Butler’s basketball IQ soared. In fact he had one of the most anomalous outlier rises I have ever seen going from 13 PER to 22 PER from age 24 to 25 seasons. That’s frankly unheard of itself from such a late age to go from defensive role player to All Star. I think he is one of the most unique players ever with one of the most unique career trajectory and even at this late state of his career has become an offensive mastermind who knows how to manipulate defenses. His pump fake and footwork are among the best in the league, allowing him to create space and take high-percentage shots in crunch time.
Even more impressive is the fact that Butler had the highest PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of his career at 33 years old. For a wing player, that’s practically unheard of, especially when the efficiency isn’t fueled by some temporary spike in three-point shooting or assists. His performance has shown that players can continue to grow and peak after 30—something that is rare but certainly possible with the right combination of work ethic, basketball IQ, and physical strength. Even as we sit here two years later he still has the 4th best PER season going of his 14 year career at the age of 35. That’s unheard of as well from my research.
The Age Debate: Is Jimmy Declining?
Critics argue that Butler is no longer the player he once was, especially with the off the court drama bringing light to the situation, but the data suggests otherwise. While he may not be the fastest or most athletic player, Butler is one of the strongest players in the league, and he plays with a unique mix of power and savvy. His game has transitioned into more of an “old man’s” style, where he uses his body to create space, absorb contact, and finish strong around the basket. He’s not someone who relies solely on speed or athleticism—his mental approach to the game is what continues to set him apart.
Even at 35, Butler remains a player who could dominate a game or two in the playoffs and win a series in my opinion. He’s shown time and time again that the regular season doesn’t always reflect the play off focus and his numbers even in the regular season are outstanding. He’s one of the few players who has proven he can flip the switch when it matters most. His mental toughness and ability to rise to the occasion are unparalleled. So until he can’t I will believe he still can since the regular season numbers are still strong. He’s tenth in the NBA in PER. It’s more than just solid, and that’s even with him going through the motions trying to force a trade recently.
| Season | Age | Team | G | PER ▼ | TS% | BPM | VORP |
| 2022-23 | 33 | MIA | 64 | 27.6 | 0.647 | 8.7 | 5.8 |
| 2020-21 | 31 | MIA | 52 | 26.5 | 0.607 | 7.7 | 4.3 |
| 2016-17 | 27 | CHI | 76 | 25.1 | 0.586 | 7.3 | 6.6 |
| 2024-25 | 35 | MIA | 22 | 23.9 | 0.648 | 5.3 | 1.2 |
| 2017-18 | 28 | MIN | 59 | 23.7 | 0.59 | 5.8 | 4.2 |
| 2021-22 | 32 | MIA | 57 | 23.6 | 0.592 | 6.3 | 4 |
| 2019-20 | 30 | MIA | 58 | 23.6 | 0.585 | 5.4 | 3.7 |
| 2023-24 | 34 | MIA | 60 | 22 | 0.626 | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| 2014-15 | 25 | CHI | 65 | 21.3 | 0.583 | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| 2015-16 | 26 | CHI | 67 | 21.3 | 0.562 | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| 2018-19 | 29 | 2TM | 65 | 20.2 | 0.571 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| 2012-13 | 23 | CHI | 82 | 15.2 | 0.574 | 2 | 2.1 |
| 2013-14 | 24 | CHI | 67 | 13.5 | 0.522 | 1.1 | 2 |
| 2011-12 | 22 | CHI | 42 | 12.5 | 0.526 | -1.3 | 0.1 |
| Nikola Jokić | 29 | DEN | 31 | 1150 | 32.4 | 0.642 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 30 | MIL | 29 | 1015 | 29.9 | 0.617 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 26 | OKC | 36 | 1248 | 29.9 | 0.634 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 29 | NYK | 35 | 1210 | 26.9 | 0.663 |
| Anthony Davis | 31 | LAL | 34 | 1188 | 26.6 | 0.598 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 21 | SAS | 32 | 1060 | 25.1 | 0.603 |
| Luka Dončić | 25 | DAL | 22 | 785 | 24.8 | 0.584 |
| Daniel Gafford | 26 | DAL | 35 | 705 | 24.7 | 0.725 |
| Domantas Sabonis | 28 | SAC | 34 | 1221 | 23.9 | 0.661 |
| Jimmy Butler | 35 | MIA | 22 | 678 | 23.9 | 0.648 |
| Jayson Tatum | 26 | BOS | 34 | 1238 | 23.8 | 0.604 |
The Playoff Jimmy Narrative: Not Over Yet
Despite some critiques, it’s clear that Jimmy Butler is far from finished. He remains one of the best players in the league, and his skill set isn’t going away any time soon the way he plays. The “Playoff Jimmy” narrative might have seemed like a distant memory for some, but his current performance still reflects a player who can carry a team in the playoffs.
Obviously there is some decline, and there will continue to be some decline but Butler has proven that he’s not just another aging star—he’s a player who continually adapts and finds ways to stay effective and slow that. His ability to elevate his game when the pressure mounts is one of the most significant assets he possesses, and there’s every reason to believe that Jimmy Butler will continue to be a major force for the foreseeable year or two.
Trade

I would try to move off Draymond Green and package him with J. Kuminga, D. Schroder and G. Payton and get back Jimmy Butler and Kel’el Ware. They might balk at Ware, but there are still other big options like Jovic or at worst Kevin Love instead. Both of their money works. If you absolutely felt like Green couldn’t be traded or that you wouldn’t do that, Andrew Wiggins could be subbed in for him. Personally I’d want to keep Wiggins and the trade wouldn’t be as favorable. I’d demand Ware at that point who I really like as a longterm prospect. This is the Butler spot that makes the most sense and is the cleanest without Bradley Beal’s messing no trade clause.
Conclusion: Butler’s Legacy Continues
At 35, Jimmy Butler isn’t just an aging veteran; he’s an all-time great who can still play at an elite level. The numbers and the eye test suggest that the decline we’ve been told about is overstated. Butler may not be the same player he was 2 years ago in his peak season, but his current play is still a force to be reckoned with. It was only two years ago, and he hasn’t fallen off that much with a current top 10 player efficiency rating As long as he stays healthy, there’s no reason to believe we won’t see more of Playoff Jimmy in the years to come—maybe even at 90% of his peak, which is still a top-tier player in today’s game. I would be running to get Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline at a likely discounted price. Especially if I were someone like Golden State who are trying to win one more title. What are you building around after Steph Curry? Jonathon Kuminga is over rated in my opinion and is about to get overpaid. He’s the kind of player I would be trying to move for Butler while his value is high as well as get off Draymonds money.
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