NBA ADJeff is our metric that draws from both Defensive Rating and Player Efficiency Rating (PER), incorporating the defensive strengths of the former and the overall performance indicators of the latter to strengthen our statistical model for the NBA. The balance we’ve struck between them seems fitting for our purposes and perceived weakness of PER. Below are the top 50 players in our NBA ADJeff metric this regular season.
Regular Season
DRtg
PER
NBA ADJeff
1
Joel Embiid
PHI
106.7
33.4
7.51
2
Nikola Jokic
DEN
108.4
30.8
6.82
3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKC
109.3
29.2
6.41
4
Giannis Antetokounmpo
MIL
111.5
29.6
6.37
5
Luka Doncic
DAL
112.6
28
5.97
6
Anthony Davis
LAL
108.9
25.6
5.64
7
Victor Wembanyama
SAS
105.7
23
5.22
8
Kristaps Porzingis
BOS
109.1
23.2
5.10
9
LeBron James
LAL
114.7
23.6
4.94
10
Domantas Sabonis
SAC
112.8
23.1
4.91
11
Kawhi Leonard
LAC
114.1
23.2
4.88
12
Jarrett Allen
CLE
110.9
21.6
4.87
13
Daniel Gafford
DAL
110.9
21.6
4.87
14
Jayson Tatum
BOS
111
22.3
4.82
15
Jalen Brunson
NYK
116.8
23.4
4.81
16
Donovan Mitchell
CLE
110.2
22
4.79
17
Zion Williamson
NOP
113.9
22.7
4.78
18
Alperen Sengun
HOU
110.7
21.8
4.72
19
Chet Holmgren
OKC
108.8
20.4
4.69
20
Tyrese Haliburton
IND
118.4
23.1
4.68
21
Jimmy Butler
MIA
113.4
21.9
4.64
22
Kyrie Irving
DAL
114.1
21.8
4.59
23
Rudy Gobert
MIN
104.8
19.2
4.58
24
Bam Adebayo
MIA
107.9
19.7
4.56
25
Evan Mobley
CLE
109.8
19.9
4.53
26
Jonas Valanciunas
NOP
110.4
19.7
4.46
27
Anthony Edwards
MIN
110
19.6
4.45
28
Devin Booker
PHX
118.5
21.9
4.44
29
Mark Williams
CHA
117.8
21.7
4.42
30
Ja Morant
MEM
113.7
20
4.40
31
Kevin Durant
PHX
115.3
21.1
4.39
32
De’Aaron Fox
SAC
114.6
20
4.36
33
Isaiah Hartenstein
NYK
108.1
18.8
4.35
34
Clint Capela
ATL
114.6
20.7
4.34
35
Jamal Murray
DEN
115.4
20.8
4.32
36
Karl-Anthony Towns
MIN
109.1
18.7
4.29
37
Ivica Zubac
LAC
113.1
19.3
4.27
38
Jalen Smith
IND
116.7
20.7
4.26
39
T.J. McConnell
IND
117.7
20.8
4.24
40
Lauri Markkanen
UTA
119.8
21.1
4.23
41
Paul George
LAC
114.4
19.3
4.22
42
Deandre Ayton
POR
113.3
19.1
4.21
43
Nicolas Claxton
BRK
111
18.7
4.21
44
Pascal Siakam
IND
117.8
19.8
4.20
45
Jalen Williams
OKC
113.3
19
4.19
46
Tyrese Maxey
PHI
116.9
19.6
4.19
47
Stephen Curry
GSW
117.6
20.5
4.18
48
Myles Turner
IND
114.9
19.2
4.18
49
LaMelo Ball
CHA
120.1
20
4.16
50
Scottie Barnes
TOR
115.5
19.2
4.16
(54)
Jaylen Brown
BOS
113.5
18.5
4.07
Boston Celtics
Below we’ve not adjusted or set a minimum minutes per game limit, this is simply statistical impact per possession.
Regular
DRtg
PER
NBA ADJeff
Kristaps Porzingis
BOS
109.1
23.2
5.32
Jayson Tatum
BOS
111
22.3
5.02
Luke Kornet
BOS
110.4
19.6
4.44
Jaylen Brown
BOS
113.5
18.5
4.07
Derrick White
BOS
113.1
16.9
3.74
Al Horford
BOS
111.1
15
3.38
Payton Pritchard
BOS
116
15.2
3.28
Jrue Holiday
BOS
113.6
14.4
3.17
Sam Hauser
BOS
114.1
12.9
2.83
Playoffs
DRtg
PER
NBA ADJeff
Jayson Tatum
BOS
107.7
22.6
5.25
Jaylen Brown
BOS
110.2
21.4
4.85
Kristaps Porzingis
BOS
100.2
19.2
4.79
Derrick White
BOS
110.4
21
4.76
Luke Kornet
BOS
108.2
18.9
4.37
Al Horford
BOS
109.1
16.2
3.71
Jrue Holiday
BOS
110.4
15.9
3.60
Payton Pritchard
BOS
115.5
13.8
2.99
Sam Hauser
BOS
111.8
9.6
2.15
Dallas Mavericks
The numbers below are for players while they were in Dallas. For example Gafford played 29 games for Dallas in the regular season and was far better than he was in Washington.
Regular
DRtg
PER
NBA ADJeff
Luka Doncic
DAL
112.6
28
6.22
Daniel Gafford
DAL
104.7
25
5.97
Kyrie Irving
DAL
114.1
21.8
4.78
Dereck Lively II
DAL
113
18
3.98
Dwight Powell
DAL
115
14.4
3.13
Dante Exum
DAL
118.5
13.6
2.87
Tim Hardaway Jr.
DAL
118.7
12
2.53
Derrick Jones
DAL
115.8
11.7
2.53
P.J. Washington
DAL
110.1
11
2.50
Jaden Hardy
DAL
118.2
11.2
2.37
Josh Green
DAL
119.1
9.9
2.08
Maxi Kleber
DAL
115.5
8.8
1.90
Playoffs
DRtg
PER
NBA ADJeff
Luka Doncic
DAL
109.9
24.1
5.48
Dereck Lively II
DAL
110.1
21.6
4.90
Daniel Gafford
DAL
109.8
19.9
4.53
Kyrie Irving
DAL
116.2
18.7
4.02
Jaden Hardy
DAL
117.4
15.3
3.26
Josh Green
DAL
113.1
12.8
2.83
P.J. Washington
DAL
113.3
12.6
2.78
Maxi Kleber
DAL
113.9
11.6
2.55
Derrick Jones
DAL
116.5
11.8
2.53
Tim Hardaway Jr.
DAL
114.6
9.9
2.16
Dante Exum
DAL
116.2
4.7
1.01
Conclusion
I believe the NBA playoffs form should hold more significance, yet in this instance, the caliber of teams the Celtics encountered en route to the finals appears completely subpar by comparison. Luka Doncic is the best overall player in these finals, though he has somewhat underperformed relative to his usual standards throughout the playoffs. Nonetheless, with some rest and presumably better health, I anticipate an improvement in his performance. Having the best player in the series usually means winning.
The prevailing notion suggests that the Celtics boast one of the most formidable arrays of talent in the NBA, particularly within their top 6 players. During the playoffs, when rotations shorten and core players log 40+ minutes, this should confer a significant advantage, potentially decisive. However, the Dallas team proves closer in competitiveness than initially I anticipated. They have convincingly defeated superior opponents and faced more rigorous tests in these playoffs, factors that could benefit them in the finals. Ordinarily, I refrain from betting against the team fielding the best player, a distinction Dallas currently holds with Doncic. Additionally, Kyrie Irving provides valuable support, boasting prior experience in the finals where he delivered standout performances.
I foresee a closely contested series, likely extending to 6 or 7 games, with Boston prevailing due to home-court advantage. Nevertheless, I view this as more of a 55/45 split in favor of Boston.
Below are the regular season and playoff averages for all players within the top 6 of the rotation expected to play over 20 minutes per game in the series. You can see why.
