| Andre Drummond | Critics may dismiss Drummond, but his statistics speak for themselves; he had an outstanding season. While he played a backup role last year, unlike many backups, he has consistently proven he can perform at a high level. This season underscores that he is capable of being a starter again. At 30 years old and still in his prime, Drummond is a two-time All-Star who has led the league in rebounding four times and been a top 15 vote getter for Defensive Player of the Year three times. His rebounding ability effectively ends defensive possessions, a crucial yet often overlooked aspect of the game and why his defensive rating is so good. It’s just a different way to limit points. It’s puzzling why his perceived value is currently so low despite his impressive season, playing 79 games, and still prime age. He made 3 million dollars last season and teams should run to sign him on a value contract in this market. |
| LeBron James | LeBron James will turn 40 next season and is expected to pick up his $51 million player option. For the past two years, one intriguing scenario has been whether a team could draft his son, hoping LeBron would join them, as he has expressed interest in playing alongside his son. It’s unlikely a team would draft his son significantly higher than projected just to attract LeBron, though. Realistically, I expect his son to be drafted in the second round. The best move for LeBron’s son would be to join a team that genuinely believes in his potential rather than banking on his father’s influence. The way LeBron is playing there seems to be time to play with Bronny, and if it doesn’t go well for Bronny, then LeBron could leverage his next contract into an opportunity to keep his son in the league another year and bid time. |
| Paul George | Paul George is likely to demand $50 million over three years. Despite staying surprisingly healthy last season, paying that much for an often injured 34-year-old would be concerning. Additionally, his defense appears to have declined from previous levels. |
| Pascal Siakam | Pascal Siakam likely had an understanding before the Pacers traded for him that he would stay there on a big contract. It seems like a formality at this point. |
| Tyrese Maxey | Maxey will stay with his current team, and they may delay signing him in order to utilize his low cap hold until after handling other business. |
| DeMar DeRozan | DeMar DeRozan will turn 35 in August and is a guard known for not shooting many threes, yet he continues to excel as a scorer with a .584 true shooting percentage, largely driven by his ability to get to the free throw line. It’s impressive that someone his age remains so effective. His free throw rate has shown little decline, indicating his ability to maintain his scoring prowess. Considering his consistent performance and durability, I would feel comfortable signing him to a couple of years if the price is right. |
| James Harden | James Harden will turn 35 in August, and while he has shown some offensive decline, even adjusting for reduced usage, he has compensated somewhat by playing harder defensively and accepting a different role. Any team signing him next needs to recognize that he is not a star player at this stage of his career. |
| Tobias Harris | Signing Harris as a power forward wouldn’t be a bad move. Over the last two seasons, he has played significant minutes at small forward (74% and 33%), but those minutes should be reduced to almost zero at this stage. |
| OG Anunoby | Anunoby ranks 155th in our stats model. He’s solid for a three-and-D wing, but even with a defensive rating of 112.7 with the Knicks, he is significantly overrated in my model compared to what he is likely to earn and how the NBA values him. I’ve seen estimates in excess of $35 million, and given what the Knicks have invested in acquiring him, they seem prepared to pay that. While he hits well with the Knicks and many other teams it seems like an outrageous over pay to me. Even citing the best second-spectrum defensive data you can find and the Knick’s record with him doesn’t justify it. He’s still young at 26, however it’s unlikely he will improve much from the player he is currently. What’s he really do that is worth 6 times what Kenrich Williams can do? Give me the poor man version. |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | Jones made $3.3 million last year and was one of the best value signings of the offseason. While he’s expected to receive a better contract this offseason, it will likely still be considerably less than someone like OG Anunoby. Given the option between paying Anunoby over estimated $35 million or Jones around $15 or 20 million, it would be wiser to choose Jones. Statistically and age-wise, they are comparable players, with Jones having the much greater edge in health. |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Caldwell-Pope is important for Denver, but he’s another player I wouldn’t want to pay a lot more than what he got last year (14.7 million). He can pick up his option, but I would expect him to be looking for something in that neighborhood over 2 or 3 years. |
| Klay Thompson | At 34 years old, Klay Thompson is someone I’d still be interested in, but not as the Hall of Fame player he once was. Instead, he should be seen more like Kyle Korver was at the same age—a reliable role player who can contribute 25 to 30 minutes per game with around 15% usage as a role player spacer or Ray Allen in Miami. A guy to space, not a guy that has to try to score 20 every game at 24% usage like he tried to do last year. |
| Luke Kornet | Kornet might be over rated by my model, but is he really the Milsap Doctrine would suggest otherwise. Still unlike Drummond, he’s never done it as a starter. He also plays on a great defensive team so I’d be a lot more skeptical of him. Still the numbers are the numbers and he was great last year in the 15 minutes a game he played. 7-2, 28 years old, used to shoot three’s earlier in his career like a poor man’s Kristaps Porziņģis. I think the Uni-Kornet deserves a chance at a bigger role given his per possession value. |
