The Anthony Edwards Hype: A National Media Narrative

Anthony Edwards is young, and a very good player, not a top 5 one at this point. He will likely continue to improve, over the next 3 to 5 years, but the national media’s portrayal of him today would make you think he’s emerging as the next Michael Jordan. Just Google the names Michael Jordan and Anthony Edwards, at this point, many have even gone so far as to make that comparison, which is completely ridiculous. Let’s at least discuss something within the realm of realism. For example, just yesterday, a major national media figure said Edwards could be the best player in the upcoming Mavericks series, which features Luka Dončić. This was said after Edwards went 6-for-24 shooting in Game 7, which wasn’t unexpected given how much he overperformed in scoring during these playoffs compared to his regular season.

Certainly, you could argue that in the sample size of 11 playoff games, Edwards has been better than the injured version of Dončić we’ve seen thus far. However, this person claimed it was a real conversation without even considering any of those fair caveats. It’s really not a conversation if Dončić is even 85% healthy.

We know what Luka Dončić is and what he can do in the playoffs because he’s proven it over multiple years. Even when he was 2 years younger than Edwards right now and in his 2nd season not his 4th he was already 4th in the MVP voting. We’ve seen Edwards perform well in just a couple of series, and even then, it’s hard to believe the shooting is 100% real because it’s so much better than his 113th-ranked regular season true shooting percentage, which is essentially what he has been throughout his career. The hard regression he had in Game 7 isn’t even shocking in this context when you consider how far off the norm he has been shooting in these playoffs. I don’t think people acknowledge the baseline. If anything we should expect to see more regression shooting the ball this series.

That’s even after a 6-24 shooting night that it’s remains this much higher. In fairness this is becoming a real thing. In 22 career playoff games he has a .614 career true shooting, so overall he does seem to rise to the occasion, but you still have to question is this sustainable, is it real given then the 300+ game regular season known. It’s interesting but I’m not there yet, just to expect playoff version of him like you could Jimmy Butler. Butler backed it up more in the regular season typically.

If you want the Michael Jordan comparison you can’t really get an apples to apples age 22 season. That was the one season he was injured so we’ll use his Rookie Year age 21 season instead. What makes things like PER, VORP relevant is it’s adjusted to league average and takes out some of the stat inflation we get today with the league breaking all kinds of offensive records yearly. Even averaging 25, 5 and 5 isn’t like averaging 25, 5, and 5 even 5 years ago much less 4 decades. These metric are per possession and adjusted to league average and rank.

Conclusion

It’s important to recognize Edwards’ potential and the excitement he brings to the game, but we should also temper our expectations with a sense of realism. Consistency is key in the NBA, and while Edwards has shown flashes of brilliance, he needs to maintain this level of performance over a longer period to be genuinely compared to established stars like Dončić or the absolutely elite in the world currently much less a greatest of all time.

Dončić was the best player in Europe at the same age Edwards was barely a 20 PER guy with a .520 true shooting in college for a highly disappointing 5-13 SEC team. Micheal Jordan was already averaging a far more efficient 13.5ppg on a National Champion college team not 6ppg more on a .500 one.. The national media’s enthusiasm and comparisons to legends like Michael Jordan or the elite of the elite are premature if not completely ridiculous. Edwards is still a lot closer in caliber to Jaylen Brown than Michael Jordan at this point statistically. Edwards’ performance in the playoffs is very promising, yet consistency over multiple seasons of proving this playoff true shooting is real is still necessary to solidify his standing among the NBA’s elite to be believable.